brooklynwx99

yes, we likely do have some residual westerly winds, but nothing nearly as strong as the WWB we just saw. so we'll probably see some slight strengthening through November, but nothing that'll really blow this up

gotta say, if we top out at +1.7-1.9C with west-leaning forcing and a MEI in the +1.0-1.4C range, those weenie-ish CanSIPS depictions might not be as ridiculous. I'm feeling pretty good about things right now. you should be psyched where you're at

I would be pretty shocked if this event has a trimonthly period at or over +2.0C. perhaps a daily reading at that level, but three months? the ECMWF is going to bust horribly

warm Novembers are quite common when there's decent Nino forcing. I also expect December to be quite warm with troughs diving into the west

I don’t think it’s a coincidence that mod-strong years coming off of multiple -ENSO years were good winters (1957, 1986, 2002, 2009) probably some kind of lag that drags the mean forcing west and leads to more +PNA/-NAO

if we get similar blocking in a moderate-strong Nino it's going to produce. no more permanent SE ridge trying to wreck everything

i've kind of given up on trying to explain my thought process to those that are just dead set on looking at raw SSTs and making sweeping generalizations. at this point I think the writing is on the wall that this will be different. no point in arguing at this juncture

@weatherwiz then compare to the super Nino years... totally different unlike 2002/09, which are actually good matches. 1972 is probably the closest with how it looks over the Americas, but the others have lots of rising motion and a center that's too far east

the way that the tropical forcing has setup is unusual and is more representative of years like 2009/2002 rather than the canonical super Ninos of 1972, 1982, 1997, and 2015. it is biased far to the west, which is likely due to La Nina lag and a warm WPAC. 2009 is pretty uncanny combine this with a MEI that is mimicking weak-moderate events and it's not that crazy to see this have spells where this does look like a Modoki event at times even though the SST presentation is more EP-like

to add to your point, the preloading pattern for NYC's largest storms (which include big dogs for SNE like PDII and 1996) does have a -PNA before the storm occurs... this slight -PNA likely allows a large wave to sneak in under the ridging this composite is mainly split flow interacting with an anomalous west-based -NAO... this winter should produce in the split flow department, and seasonals are screaming for some kind of -NAO late in the year

I mean I don't expect this winter to be cold by any means. but i DO expect this winter to have a KU or two for somewhere on the EC. NYC south is favored, but there have been Ninos where you guys also got the big dog... Feb 1983/2003 come to mind immediately

I think that people forget that those indices were made in the context in a world changing from CC... you would think that people would welcome them with open arms considering all the overattribution we're seeing, but no. it's odd

the reverse psychology is really something else

i think "reductive" is the word you're looking for. been seeing a lot of that kind of thinking this year with ENSO

I would imagine that since this year will have much more impressive tropical forcing, it should be able to pick up on the pattern better. but yes, seasonal models aren't the best. the November runs really should be quite good, though. tough to get a seasonal to totally flop that close in when the coupling is really beginning to kick in most of the time

I don't think we're going to deal with a lack of coupling here... the forcing is already much stronger than it was in 2018. 2018 isn't like this year whatsoever in terms of tropical forcing. this year is more like 2002 and 2009 so far

I think the 30" storm is still meaningful... a HECS is a HECS, no matter when

2018-19 had 20" and 2021-22 had 18"... below average, but not by much. 2020-21 had near 40", and then two duds in 19-20 and 22-23. that averages out to 17", which is definitely below normal but it's nothing that hasn't happened before 1997-98 to 2001-02 averaged 15", 1986-87 to 1991-92 averaged 17", and even a stretch in the 1930s from 1926-27 to 1931-32 averaged 13.5!" so yeah, it's been a quiet stretch, but this has happened before, and we've also come out of the most prolific stretch of winters in history from 2002-03 through 2020-21. people just got spoiled and forget how it is sometimes

also, Oct-Nov of all moderate to super Ninos since 1980 have had a strong signal for a trough digging into the SW US and no blocking to speak of. so save the pessimism for now

2009-10 would have still been a blockbuster winter lmao that early Feb stretch would have been up here instead of in DC one bad winter last year and everyone is losing their damn minds. it's a shame

it's interesting that even though this is a pretty typical EP Nino in terms of SSTs from like 120W eastward, it seems like the forcing the models are spitting out still resembles those of Modoki winters. it seems like the farther west forcing has some credence, as it's hung back farther west thus far this month it also seems like there is a good bit of misunderstanding that I've seen both here and on Twitter... this is a typical EP Nino in terms of SSTs. however, given how warm the WPAC is, it seems like this event is less coupled with the forcing ending up farther west, leading to bouts of Modoki forcing at times even with a basin-wide SST signature. not sure why it has to be all-or-nothing. nuance exists, and it seems like modeling is picking up on something that says that this won't act like a typical high-end EP event

but i digress. there are a lot of reasons to be optimistic about this winter

taking out the most prolific winters in an area that has higher variance doesn’t really work. you’re bound to be below average then

super favorable pattern without results for most TWICE that winter… i am confident that if we see blocking of that scale in a Nino, someone on the EC is getting crushed. no worries about a persistent SE ridge this time

also in a strong event like this, the SW US and southern Rockies would get hammered, potentially along with the S Apps. that output doesn't make any sense