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brooklynwx99

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Everything posted by brooklynwx99

  1. brooklynwx99
    you have a different opinion from me that’s also based in science? WISHCASTING give me a fucking break
  2. brooklynwx99
    he’s so mad lmao
  3. brooklynwx99
    any bets on the reigning insufferable blowhard of amwx? i’ll make good odds
  4. brooklynwx99
    what? 2013-14, 2014-15, 2017-18 and 2020-21 were all pretty great. not to mention the torrid stretch from 2000-2013
  5. brooklynwx99
    this is literally the best shot since 2009 for a legit big winter from NYC-PHL-DCA. 2015 was insanely strong (still produced the son of 1996)... 2009 was the last legit mod-strong event we've had in the last 14 years. there is a lot of reason for optimism
  6. brooklynwx99
    i like seeing the persistent -VP anomalies consistently setting up over the dateline. the CanSIPS has actually been doing a really good job with the forcing so far this October
  7. brooklynwx99
    this is not bad at all. full latitude ridge into AK allowing for pretty anomalous cold to move in behind the initial boundary. hopefully we can see the -NAO flex a bit to allow the 50/50 to trend stronger and less progressive. that is the key IMO i am worried that the ECMWF is a bit too amped with that MW shortwave, though. would make sense given its biases
  8. brooklynwx99
    the ECMWF still busted by almost half a degree a month out. that is horrific
  9. brooklynwx99
    Oct 15-Nov 15 is generally the most boring time of year, even if it gets colder than normal. just not much to talk about
  10. brooklynwx99
    yes, we likely do have some residual westerly winds, but nothing nearly as strong as the WWB we just saw. so we'll probably see some slight strengthening through November, but nothing that'll really blow this up
  11. brooklynwx99
    gotta say, if we top out at +1.7-1.9C with west-leaning forcing and a MEI in the +1.0-1.4C range, those weenie-ish CanSIPS depictions might not be as ridiculous. I'm feeling pretty good about things right now. you should be psyched where you're at
  12. brooklynwx99
    I would be pretty shocked if this event has a trimonthly period at or over +2.0C. perhaps a daily reading at that level, but three months? the ECMWF is going to bust horribly
  13. brooklynwx99
    warm Novembers are quite common when there's decent Nino forcing. I also expect December to be quite warm with troughs diving into the west
  14. brooklynwx99
    I don’t think it’s a coincidence that mod-strong years coming off of multiple -ENSO years were good winters (1957, 1986, 2002, 2009) probably some kind of lag that drags the mean forcing west and leads to more +PNA/-NAO
  15. brooklynwx99
    if we get similar blocking in a moderate-strong Nino it's going to produce. no more permanent SE ridge trying to wreck everything
  16. brooklynwx99
    i've kind of given up on trying to explain my thought process to those that are just dead set on looking at raw SSTs and making sweeping generalizations. at this point I think the writing is on the wall that this will be different. no point in arguing at this juncture
  17. brooklynwx99
    @weatherwiz then compare to the super Nino years... totally different unlike 2002/09, which are actually good matches. 1972 is probably the closest with how it looks over the Americas, but the others have lots of rising motion and a center that's too far east
  18. brooklynwx99
    the way that the tropical forcing has setup is unusual and is more representative of years like 2009/2002 rather than the canonical super Ninos of 1972, 1982, 1997, and 2015. it is biased far to the west, which is likely due to La Nina lag and a warm WPAC. 2009 is pretty uncanny combine this with a MEI that is mimicking weak-moderate events and it's not that crazy to see this have spells where this does look like a Modoki event at times even though the SST presentation is more EP-like
  19. brooklynwx99
    to add to your point, the preloading pattern for NYC's largest storms (which include big dogs for SNE like PDII and 1996) does have a -PNA before the storm occurs... this slight -PNA likely allows a large wave to sneak in under the ridging this composite is mainly split flow interacting with an anomalous west-based -NAO... this winter should produce in the split flow department, and seasonals are screaming for some kind of -NAO late in the year
  20. brooklynwx99
    I mean I don't expect this winter to be cold by any means. but i DO expect this winter to have a KU or two for somewhere on the EC. NYC south is favored, but there have been Ninos where you guys also got the big dog... Feb 1983/2003 come to mind immediately
  21. brooklynwx99
    I think that people forget that those indices were made in the context in a world changing from CC... you would think that people would welcome them with open arms considering all the overattribution we're seeing, but no. it's odd
  22. brooklynwx99
    the reverse psychology is really something else
  23. brooklynwx99
    i think "reductive" is the word you're looking for. been seeing a lot of that kind of thinking this year with ENSO
  24. brooklynwx99
    I would imagine that since this year will have much more impressive tropical forcing, it should be able to pick up on the pattern better. but yes, seasonal models aren't the best. the November runs really should be quite good, though. tough to get a seasonal to totally flop that close in when the coupling is really beginning to kick in most of the time
  25. brooklynwx99
    I don't think we're going to deal with a lack of coupling here... the forcing is already much stronger than it was in 2018. 2018 isn't like this year whatsoever in terms of tropical forcing. this year is more like 2002 and 2009 so far
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