brooklynwx99
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Everything posted by brooklynwx99
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will have to wait until Christmas onward for anything better, which is fine and has been known by most (hopefully)
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I think people easily forget that NYC averages a grand total of 4.7" of snow in December. that can easily be made up given that the pattern should become more favorable late in the month... not exactly worried for the rest of the winter given the weak SPV and the fact that a -NAO December correlates very well to strong blocking for the rest of the year Ninos are backloaded winters
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I'm not seeing that here. looks like a clean progression east. of course you're going to get some forcing lingering back as the wave progresses
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GEFS showing the transition well as the AK trough retrogrades and the PNA rises. SE trough starting to develop
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GEFS showing the transition well as the AK trough retrogrades and the PNA rises. SE trough starting to develop
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pretty nice to see the GEFS in such lock step agreement with the beginning of the weeklies. modeling has been very consistent on the 20-25th for a pretty wholesale change of the pattern hasn’t been getting pushed back, either
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that's no fun -
weeklies are mint through mid-Jan
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El Nino Decembers are usually just crappy regardless of MJO, honestly
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I think phase 8 is warm in El Nino Decembers, not later in the year. it's a cold signal for Jan and Feb either way, the MJO becomes a lot more favorable and there are reasons for optimism late-month
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nothing has been pushed back. the weeklies have shown the same thing for like the past two weeks now
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who is calling for Arctic cold? nobody worth taking seriously, really. the pattern does become more favorable late in the month as the AK trough retrogrades into more of a traditional Aleutian LP and the PNA increases. there is good agreement on that
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yup, just had a weird wave break and it was off to the races. models are notoriously bad at modeling that kinda stuff so hopefully we can see that gain some steam
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pretty favorable trend in the Pacific mid-month... PNA looks much better. nice to see this kind of trend in the medium range. probably just meaningless cold, but still
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pretty favorable trend in the Pacific mid-month... PNA looks much better. might be able to pull off a light event given this pattern
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pretty favorable trend in the Pacific mid-month... PNA looks much better. might be able to pull off a light event given this pattern
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there will always be Pacific air in Ninos. they aren't super cold or anything, just stormy
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given that we have already see significant -NAO blocking and should have a -NAO December in the mean, we should see more blocking spells. this is especially true when you factor in the weak SPV (and potentially even a SSW, but remains to be seen)
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that look is the transition into the more favorable pattern the Weeklies have... SW trough moves east as the PNA rises, AK trough retrogrades and the -NAO develops
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idk, this develops a pretty nice source region as heights increase into AK and the NAO trends negative. this would be a cold pattern. nothing frigid, but cold given that we're into early Jan at this point. Christmas might be a tad too early... maybe a few days after before we start talking anything bigger
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the transition is still on track on the weeklies... they remain very favorable from Christmas through mid-Jan. the flip towards this pattern is also getting picked up on the end of the EPS
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yup, the signal has remained strong and is moving forward in time. you can see the transition occurring at the end of the EPS and GEPS
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i really doubt it. that is super rare and there isn't a reason to believe we won't get a favorable pattern once into the back half of winter this year
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it'll probably take until Christmas week but that progression has been hammered upon by extended guidance and the beginnings are showing up on ensembles. just need to see it move forward in time now. makes sense given the progression of tropical forcing
