Jump to content

brooklynwx99

Meteorologist
 View Profile  See their activity

  • Posts

    5,637

  • Joined

  • Last visited

 Content Type 

Everything posted by brooklynwx99

  1. brooklynwx99
    I would be shocked if this winter averaged out with a strong -NAO given the -QBO and the propensity for Ninos to have periods of blocking
  2. brooklynwx99
    it’s not likely that this is going to remain east based. this is in the process of becoming basin wide, as all models have advertised as we head into the fall
  3. brooklynwx99
    it’s the only seasonal model that shows that FWIW
  4. brooklynwx99
    chill the fuck out dude lmao
  5. brooklynwx99
    no, you’re not wrong per se, but a strong Nino implies a three month averaged ONI at or above +1.5C
  6. brooklynwx99
    you're in the MA subforum
  7. brooklynwx99
    for where he lives, that's still a soaker
  8. brooklynwx99
    the people who are in the colder anomalies get blasted... look at the west over the last couple of years. it's just that if you're not, good luck
  9. brooklynwx99
    we aren't allowed to like things because the earth is burning that's how all of this is supposed to work
  10. brooklynwx99
    strong Ninos always have one or two monsters... it's a matter of if you can: cash in on the monsters get other light to moderate events sprinkled in
  11. brooklynwx99
    I have mixed feelings on this year, but given the propensity for the main tropical forcing to be centered far west of Ninos of this type along with the -QBO in place, we should see some good spells of blocking given the strong +ENSO, the favored SE trough instead of SE ridge will make blocking far more effective than it was last winter I would definitely be more optimistic than pessimistic down by you guys. STJ will be rocking, and Ninos this strong are always good for a nuke or two in the winter
  12. brooklynwx99
    isn't it averaged for the month, though? so August would be at like 1.35-1.4, no?
  13. brooklynwx99
    is this what people felt about 02-03 in the wake of 01-02?
  14. brooklynwx99
    I would say 140-150W… that’s where canonical forcing usually sets up
  15. brooklynwx99
    it's not stated in the paper: https://agupubs.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/epdf/10.1002/2013JD021343 here's a temperature composite they devised for all of the solar phases... ascending towards a max is quite favorable
  16. brooklynwx99
    I don't entirely disagree, but super Nino = warm doesn't seem to be the right way to go based on the factors presented thus far. this isn't behaving like a typical one and I don't expect it to come winter also, there is a decent shot that we could see the two halves of the winter vary wildly... look at 14-15, for example. I could see a +5 December and -2 February with above average precip. either way, the way your point is being framed is just too reductive. you also said "in the east," just New England
  17. brooklynwx99
    you're being reductive
  18. brooklynwx99
    I mean, ascending solar activity, especially near the max seems to favor a -NAO more than not. not a perfect correlation, but still favors it
  19. brooklynwx99
    pretty much two years at this point as well. the SPV is on the weaker end of normal, if anything. then, normal variability afterwards
  20. brooklynwx99
    the ascending solar activity approaching a max, -QBO, and general strong Nino forcing pretty solidly favor HL blocking this winter. the projected western lean to the forcing bolsters that even more so not exactly worried about a lack of blocking this winter
  21. brooklynwx99
    yup, last year shows why it’s such a great tool. it’ll play a part this year as well
  22. brooklynwx99
    i’ve heard everyone was like this after 01-02, then we got 02-03
  23. brooklynwx99
    https://psl.noaa.gov/enso/mei/
  24. brooklynwx99
    the forcing likely has a western lean to it given the pull of the WPAC warm pool. the MEI is also a good bit lower than the ONI, suggesting that some of the punch is taken out of it due to the WPAC. modeling seems to be suggesting both of these outcomes, which is encouraging
  25. brooklynwx99
    you’re too hung up on the raw ONI dude
×
×
  • Create New...