brooklynwx99

hey, usually I like to bring good news to people. if there's a torch period for a couple weeks I usually just make a post like "hey this looks like shit for two weeks, see you then" and check out until things get interesting lmao

this makes sense given the potential MJO pulse over the MC as well

luckily, this looks rather temporary. strong forcing near the dateline likely resumes by next week. all ensembles agree on this, not just the EPS

the jury is out on solar. some papers attribute ascending solar to a -NAO and some don’t. i think the -QBO and strong Nino state are going to have a bigger impact comparatively

I mean, hell, 2015-16 had a month where it acted like a Modoki event and there was a HECS out of it. I can bet money the MEI was way higher there than it'll be this year

@George001 they just aren't the same. most of the vapor went into the ocean, not the atmosphere, while Pinatubo had most of its SO2 go far into the atmosphere

the Pinatubo eruption was much stronger and in the NH, shooting SO2 into the atmosphere... this one is weaker, in the SH, and shot water vapor into the atmosphere. they're different the -QBO favors blocking, the strong Nino itself favors blocking, and solar research is out. some say the ascending solar favors blocking, some say it doesn't. but overall, solar and the eruption are dubious at best, and the -QBO and Nino are known to be blockier so to say that a strongly positive +NAO is favored is a bit much

yeah, but when looking at variables like the ONI and forcing, they’re actually not as far off as you’d think. that’s the point some of us have been making honestly, 2009 is also a great QBO and summer pattern match. not expecting a winter like that, but it’s a solid analog

it’s just odd since those are such banner weenie years… but if the shoe fits

yeah it's definitely encouraging. still want to wait until October but I like what I'm seeing

looking at the projected forcing for the start of September, we're seeing the forcing displaced far west towards the dateline or even west of it! this is much farther west than 2015, 1997, 1982, and 1972. 1972 is perhaps the closest, but it's still too far east overall in fact, the forcing thus far is much more comparable to 2009, 2002, and 1963, with the core near the dateline as opposed to between 140-160W. 2002 is extremely similar. IMO there is no need to heavily rely on the classical EP Ninos when it's abundantly clear that this event isn't acting like one

if this ends up basin wide with the forcing still leaning west as it's been doing all summer, we're probably in business very curious to see what the CanSIPS spits out on Friday

I'm happy that this is actually becoming a basin wide event. was worried about that a few weeks ago

I would be shocked if this winter averaged out with a strong -NAO given the -QBO and the propensity for Ninos to have periods of blocking

it’s not likely that this is going to remain east based. this is in the process of becoming basin wide, as all models have advertised as we head into the fall

it’s the only seasonal model that shows that FWIW

chill the fuck out dude lmao

no, you’re not wrong per se, but a strong Nino implies a three month averaged ONI at or above +1.5C

you're in the MA subforum

for where he lives, that's still a soaker

the people who are in the colder anomalies get blasted... look at the west over the last couple of years. it's just that if you're not, good luck

we aren't allowed to like things because the earth is burning that's how all of this is supposed to work

strong Ninos always have one or two monsters... it's a matter of if you can: cash in on the monsters get other light to moderate events sprinkled in

I have mixed feelings on this year, but given the propensity for the main tropical forcing to be centered far west of Ninos of this type along with the -QBO in place, we should see some good spells of blocking given the strong +ENSO, the favored SE trough instead of SE ridge will make blocking far more effective than it was last winter I would definitely be more optimistic than pessimistic down by you guys. STJ will be rocking, and Ninos this strong are always good for a nuke or two in the winter

isn't it averaged for the month, though? so August would be at like 1.35-1.4, no?