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brooklynwx99

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Everything posted by brooklynwx99

  1. brooklynwx99
    that stuff is going to wobble around from day to day. there is still a considerable a weakening trend once we enter December
  2. brooklynwx99
    i mean, this is what last year’s CanSIPS at the same time showed for last DJF. like come on, this year is night and day
  3. brooklynwx99
    i mean hell, notice how he didn’t post the highly favorable Feb and Mar plots wonder why
  4. brooklynwx99
    not at all. that Feb-Mar pattern would deliver… cross polar flow, blocking, and split flow
  5. brooklynwx99
    the CanSIPS has a great pattern for the back half of winter, which can be really exciting historically in El Niños. that’s about all that has to be said
  6. brooklynwx99
    -VP setting up near the dateline on the ECMWF weeklies as well. this is into the first week of December very similar to the Modoki years and far west of the canonical EP super Nino years
  7. brooklynwx99
    there has been a noticeable trend towards a pretty big weakening of the SPV heading into December now
  8. brooklynwx99
    I would take my chances with that pattern. it's just wise to temper expectations given that it's still quite early and it's not a particularly cold look
  9. brooklynwx99
    i'm skeptical... based on the analogs I've seen, March looks warm, but that could be the back half of the month. if Feb does turn out to be blocky (pretty good chance there), I could certainly see the first half of the month being pretty fun
  10. brooklynwx99
    i doubt that'll be the case this year. +PNA should be pretty well favored especially as after mid-Jan. there isn't much of a correlation to El Nino this early. we'd like to see the Aleutian Low develop once into the first few weeks of Dec
  11. brooklynwx99
    amazing job. we’re in pretty good agreement
  12. brooklynwx99
    new CanSIPS is tasty. starts warm but transitions in Jan to a pretty loaded look for Feb/Mar… -AO/NAO, +PNA/-EPO with split flow
  13. brooklynwx99
    looks like it’s mostly held serve. warm Dec, transitional Jan, and a pretty loaded look for Feb/Mar with a stout Aleutian LP, -NAO/-AO, +PNA/-EPO and split flow
  14. brooklynwx99
    like i would pay for that Feb/Mar pattern. especially Feb
  15. brooklynwx99
    i would say that not much has changed in all honesty. Dec looks warm, Jan is transitionary, and Feb/Mar look pretty loaded with an Aleutian low, +PNA/-EPO alongside a -AO/-NAO
  16. brooklynwx99
    i don’t get some of the clamoring for a SSW… a disrupted SPV is more than enough if you want a -AO/NAO more often than not
  17. brooklynwx99
    500mb probably looks pretty damn good based on the OLR there. would imagine it largely held serve
  18. brooklynwx99
    in the same way that background warming may limit the effect of strong El Niños, it would also wash stuff like that out. instead of warm-cold-warm, you get hot-normal-hot like what we’re seeing now… the signature is still there
  19. brooklynwx99
    the run on that site doesn’t match up with that of Weatherbell. i’m just going to wait until a typical vendor has the CanSIPS. the most useful so far is the Canadian site, and that run looked similar to the last
  20. brooklynwx99
    you sure this site is correct? the CFS is nowhere near that cold for Feb and Mar. that looks more like what the CanSIPS has had
  21. brooklynwx99
    the SST anomalies are still projected to move westward. not going to be Modoki, but it’s still becoming a basin wide event
  22. brooklynwx99
    December isn't even that much of a winter month if you're near the coast. SE MA averages like 6" in December and close to 20" in Jan and Feb each. Mar is closer to 10" as well at least Ninos maximize the months that are already good instead of Ninas where you wreck your best month
  23. brooklynwx99
    seems like the ECMWF has a weakened SPV coming up once into Dec after the initial Nov spike. would be interesting if that’s indeed the effect
  24. brooklynwx99
    I like seeing the PV pinned in SE Canada with blocking over the top. would like to see more of a +PNA instead of neutral/slightly negative but this could work
  25. brooklynwx99
    it’s just screaming into the void. we’ll just see who has the right idea, nobody will be convinced at this point
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