brooklynwx99

i don’t disagree with what you’re saying, but if you’re trying to see what’ll happen more than a week out, there will inevitably be smoothing. it’s more useful to view them as “is this potential pattern more or less favorable than average for snowfall?” there’s no way to look at discrete evolutions there. it’s basically a game of probability it’s not like I enjoy looking at the day 8-15 range. i would like to track discrete threats, but that is nearly impossible at this range. there’s nothing wrong with data, though. more data is powerful. not sure why this irks so many people

there’s nothing misleading about it all as long as you know how to use the data. i would argue that a 6 hour snapshot can be even more misleading than a broad overview of the pattern

i don’t see a can getting kicked at all. also, i wouldn’t call that a cutter pattern. there’s a trough in the SE, and the NW flow over central Canada would force surface HP it’s a split flow pattern… seeing the STJ undercut the -EPO is cold and active. it’s not the same as a Niña black hole digging into Baja CA

the pattern change is becoming more potent and moving forward in time. look at the ridge into W Canada and AK. i don’t get some of the griping. it’s not a perfect pattern by any means, but the AK ridge will provide cold air, and there is a 50/50 signal with the low heights over the N ATL

wow. stout AK ridge becoming stronger in time with the STJ undercutting. could be a fun pattern

wow. stout AK ridge becoming stronger in time with the STJ undercutting. could be a fun pattern

if we get a -NAO, i would honestly prefer a slight -PNA. keeps the pattern active and STJ open

the SPV is also getting wrecked. helps blocking prospects as we enter the main window in late Jan into Feb

yeah any kind of true pig -NAO block likely waits until late month into Feb. odds increase if a SSW occurs (which is also looking more likely)

it isn’t, but if we get that -NAO it changes things. not sure if that’s real yet… would like to see more consistency there unfortunately, i don’t think we’ll see any consistency there

this is a gorgeous look

i would pay money for this to verify. luckily, the better pattern has moved forward in time. doesn’t seem like a head fake

this is near perfect. can’t believe it gotta love that dipole signature in the Atlantic. would make the -NAO way more legit

this has been moving forward and strengthening with time

man, that MSLP is classic stuff

drool worthy pattern

literally the most pessimistic takes possible

HP is in a good spot... this is why having the NW flow from the -EPO ridge is important. it's not the same as a typical Nina -PNA. LP over the 50/50 region too

pretty classic split flow showing up too. fun pattern

pretty classic split flow showing up too. fun pattern

then we get to the KU Feb pattern lmao

what does this have anything to do with the beginning of the month? that's for late January I agree that we may see -PNA periods mid to late month as the jet retracts, but i wouldn't say that it's favored for the whole month

a trough undercutting a -EPO is not the same pattern as a traditional -PNA. they're two different patterns. early Jan looks more like active split flow with AN heights in northern Canada... that isn't really a -PNA February 2023 is more of a typical -PNA

yes, exactly. I like where we are headed. seems to be legit