brooklynwx99
-
Posts
5,651 -
Joined
-
Last visited
Content Type
Profiles
Blogs
Forums
American Weather
Media Demo
Store
Gallery
Everything posted by brooklynwx99
-
18z EPS only goes out to 144
-
EPS still looks nothing like the GEFS. all is well
-
it’s farther east and at least attempting to get it out of the west, that was the point there also, I don’t think the adage of models being “hot” or “cold” has merit. past performance is not an indication of future success, and the GFS is far away from the consensus, so I have to lean against it if some want to be pessimistic, i get it, but we just have to see things shake out
-
I'm only half kidding, I think this pattern broke the GFS. like what the actual F is this
-
the EPS and GEPS are in absolute lock step agreement with every major pattern feature and then you have the GEFS in left field picking its nose. idk. I can't believe it right now unless the EPS or GEPS make a big shift towards it either way, one camp is going to cave soon. let's hope it's the GEFS
-
it almost always goes towards the OP, though. it's a bad ensemble
-
this is also what I mean. it looks like the GFS is also just having a hard time with the pattern right now and it breaks everything down WAY too fast like wtf is this? this doesn't even have any waves. just a bunch of smattered crap. compare that with the EPS control, which looks like actual weather
-
I'll put it this way. if the GFS/GEFS was the only model showing a favorable outcome and every other model had what the GFS has now, would you believe the favorable outcome? I absolutely would not. it's a game of odds and they're in our favor right now
-
these differences are occurring at like Day 5-6, so this will be resolved over the next couple of days anyway, regardless of the outcome
-
there is definitely a trend here to get the vort out faster, though, regardless of whatever weird way the GFS is thinking of doing it verbatim
-
the relative consistency of the ECMWF / CMC also give me a bit more confidence that they have the right idea. the GFS has been a bit erratic with its handling of the NW US vort
-
yup, exactly... continuing the trends from 12z. block is stronger too
-
looks like a true block as well with a trough stretching from the E US into Europe. kinda like your avatar
-
this pattern looks way different than that one
-
I agree that you can't completely throw it out, but a blind squirrel finds a nut every now and then. I'm sticking with the higher skilled majority as of now
-
not to say it's absolutely, 100% wrong, but a blind squirrel finds a nut every now and then I'm just leaning on the more consistent, higher scoring majority as of now
-
I don't think that's the case. the weather is inherently chaotic and there's no way we could ever figure out how to decipher that chaos more than 5 or so days in advance with any kind of certainty. it's not possible and luck will always play a factor
-
at this point I wouldn't pay much attention to the GFS/GEFS unless the EPS/GEPS move towards it in a significant way. it's on a complete island right now, and the EPS/GEPS became more favorable, if anything. definitely dug their heels in at 12z while the GEFS has been shuffling about... the GFS OP moved towards them in a big way
-
this is nearly perfect. the EPS is holding serve on a legitimate KU evolution for next weekend
-
this is nearly perfect. the EPS is holding serve on a legitimate KU evolution for next weekend
-
this is nearly perfect. the EPS is holding serve on a legitimate KU evolution for next weekend
-
EPS has been trending better and better. stronger -NAO, AK ridging trending more poleward, and a quicker exit of the WC trough. this run looks explosive
-
jesus christ. KU incoming on the ECMWF, no exaggeration
-
ECMWF holding serve, booting the S/W out of the west. the GFS still remains alone here at 12z
-
I know, that's probably the one thing that it's gotten right all by itself this year. usually happens once a year or so. still the worst performing model out of all the globals
