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brooklynwx99

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Everything posted by brooklynwx99

  1. brooklynwx99
    it's worth noting that ENSO effects don't really get going until late fall into winter anyway, so us seeing some Nina-like patterns in October and early November doesn't really say much about the potential character of the winter I mean, the CanSIPS has a modoki-esque Feb pattern with an Aleutian ridge in October
  2. brooklynwx99
    all that he’s saying is that it could lead to a difference in what we usually see… +ENSO/-QBO still favors blocking regardless
  3. brooklynwx99
    a -NAO/-PNA is actually the main way the big dogs occur historically... you generally want that set of teleconnections, given the -PNA isn't overwhelming
  4. brooklynwx99
    we should see the MEI poke into the +1.0 - 1.4 range at some point in the next few months. this Nino is still going to strengthen a bit
  5. brooklynwx99
    you're right, it probably is later than that... OND is likely a better guess. I just don't really know what keeps this going for that long
  6. brooklynwx99
    in terms of trimonthly ONI, I'd say the highest this gets is 1.9... range of 1.7 - 1.9, probably in SON
  7. brooklynwx99
    that’s NW/WNW flow aloft… generally very dry with those kinds of patterns you get the most 500mb diffluence downstream of a ridge, which usually leads to high pressure
  8. brooklynwx99
    the pattern after the weekend is drier than a Popeye's biscuit
  9. brooklynwx99
    this has nothing to do with you, but how did he come to the conclusion that it's east-based from this data? as far as I know, models are still showing a basin-wide event
  10. brooklynwx99
    it will be difficult to get heavy rain that far north and west with that strong C Canada ridge... the NW flow aloft is mimicking confluence like it would in the winter
  11. brooklynwx99
    granted, it was "rains to Maines," not the border
  12. brooklynwx99
    ECMWF is even more suppressed than it was before... stronger HP overhead as the anomalous C Canada ridge leaks east
  13. brooklynwx99
    you know as well as anybody that this is lagging far behind past super Ninos. it’s not like the MEI is like half a degree lower. it’s like 1-2 degrees too low… that is going to make a difference
  14. brooklynwx99
    based on CC, NYC/BWI have the best chances they've ever had to see respective 70"/50" winters... but that comes with the added disadvantage of seeing a real dud, too. that dud happened last year
  15. brooklynwx99
    in terms of snowfall, CC is just leading to more variance. when you bust, you bust, but in good winters it'll boom more than usual 2009-10 and 2014-15 are good examples of booms... 2022-23 and 2019-20 are good example of busts
  16. brooklynwx99
    I could see December being quite warm here before the Nino really gets going. not as warm as Dec 2015, but warm nonetheless
  17. brooklynwx99
    I don't think a raging Pacific jet coming from AK will be an issue this winter, especially once into late Jan and Feb. if anything I'd be worried about an Aleutian low that wanders too close
  18. brooklynwx99
    the Nino-esque pattern should get going once into the late fall, like November into early December this winter is going to behave like a Nino... really not worried about that at all
  19. brooklynwx99
    the synoptic pattern wasn't good enough for this to be a true EC landfall, which was apparent a while ago. it's a bit better than it originally looked, but still not good enough you want that Atlantic ridge farther west or that trough deeper and farther east. too little, too late
  20. brooklynwx99
    the ECMWF is still the best and I lean on it the most when it comes to medium range forecasting, but the gap has closed. I'd still say that the EPS is the highest skill model, but you have to take other pieces of guidance into account more so now
  21. brooklynwx99
    the magnitude of the warm anomalies and the forecasted placement of forcing near the dateline. everything still looks very nino-esque as autumn progresses
  22. brooklynwx99
    forcing from ENSO peaks in January through February, though... Nov/Dec aren't representative of a typical ENSO state this is why you cash in with Ninas early but you have to wait for Ninos
  23. brooklynwx99
    it's going to couple, I am not concerned about that at all. this is nothing like 2018-19
  24. brooklynwx99
    I highly, highly doubt that this Nino won't couple. this is not like 2018-19, and modeling is gung-ho on typical Nino forcing there is also no way this winter will be as bad as last winter... it broke records for how bad it was. not happening
  25. brooklynwx99
    C3S forcing is basically a carbon copy of the moderate Modoki winters of 2009, 2002, and 1986. don't shoot the messenger
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