brooklynwx99

i think we just had one really shit winter and people kinda forgot that it can get significantly cold. the west has just had its run lately

you realize this month has been solidly below normal, right? i don’t think any stars have aligned… seems like a normal cold pattern Boston is -2.5 MTD and has had four -9 days compared to one +10 day. going to have more sig cold days coming up as well

why would the Aleutian low be placed farther east than even the canonical super events when 1) this likely won’t have the same magnitude of strength even with raw ONI 2) forcing has been well west, and will continue to stay west for the foreseeable future he has lost his damn mind. he is basically just saying shit at this point

yeah, probably. we could still see a decent event into NE (especially interior and north) through the end of the month before things moderate into early December the tropical forcing we're seeing now will pay dividends once we get later into winter, though

are you referring to like after the 26th or so? because it looks frigid for this time of year for Thanksgiving and the next couple of days that follow

seems like it's cooling the EP and warming the WP to me

if we were going to get on the board early, this would be the pattern to do it with

might as well try to start off hot going into December

yeah this EPO ridge is pretty wild

i think the issue with the 12z is that the TPV ends up phasing with the vort and shoots it through the lakes... that'll happen in a pattern like this from time to time but then it reloads. seeing a -EPO cutoff high like that is nice

and then we see what the trailing wave does. if it's going to snow early, this is how you do it. what a sick pattern

this forcing configuration is quite similar to the more favorable years and less so compared to the canonical super Nino years. more forcing in the western IO and closer to the dateline. again, we just aren't seeing the main VP in the same spots as we were for the torchy super Nino years

this forcing configuration is very encouraging once we get into mid-late December. very similar to forcing we'd see in the more favorable years, and it's certainly farther west and more prominent in the western IO than the super EP Nino years

what result? a winter like 1997? perhaps, but favorable winters also had cold novembers. there's just as much of a chance that NYC sees 40-50" as 10" this year IMO people weenied because of the obvious rage bait lmao

i mean, it was cold somewhere

no, this Nino is obviously very similar to 1997 and we're just weenies for believing otherwise

really nice to see this forcing pattern showing up on extended ensembles for the back half of December... this is straight 7-8-1-2, and these phases play well once into Jan

phases 7, 8, and 1 are still handily running the show there. the MC forcing is also temporary... it's replaced by strong subsidence the week after

i can see mid-month ending up quite warm before getting colder into late month as the MJO circles and the SPV weakens

EPS still aggressive with the -EPO

we take the anomalous -EPO

i want to see if we can get that wave breaking -NAO to keep showing up, similar to what the OP GFS has been doing. those blocks are flukier than traditional retrograding Scandinavian blocks, but they work all the same i mean, talk about loaded. this is a December airmass with blocking. just want to see that -NAO show up more on ensembles

could also say it looks like November 2002

there have been some posts on next week's potentially exciting pattern, so I thought I'd share some more coherent thoughts... the main driver for this change in the pattern from -PNA/+EPO to +PNA/-EPO will be an anomalously strong +EAMT (east Asian mountain torque) that will develop over the next couple of days. HP is around 3-4 sigma above normal here the way EAMT works is that since the pressure gradient force is pointed to the west (wind blows from HP to LP), the Pacific jet must extend in order to conserve the total momentum. we see this Pacific jet extension here: the Pacific jet extension then forces a strong Aleutian / GoA LP (yay El Nino) that leads to an anomalous -EPO that is also timed up with a +PNA! no more -EPO/-PNA crap from last year, it seems. these patterns are very efficient at driving Arctic air into the CONUS, especially the Plains eastward. given split flow and the displacement of the TPV into SE Canada, there is certainly an increased risk at seeing wintry weather, even south of the M-D line. either way, there is a reason for this pattern to develop... I don't think it's model fantasy BS

there have been some posts on next week's potentially exciting pattern, so I thought I'd share some more coherent thoughts... the main driver for this change in the pattern from -PNA/+EPO to +PNA/-EPO will be an anomalously strong +EAMT (east Asian mountain torque) that will develop over the next couple of days. HP is around 3-4 sigma above normal here the way EAMT works is that since the pressure gradient force is pointed to the west (wind blows from HP to LP), the Pacific jet must extend in order to conserve the total momentum. we see this Pacific jet extension here: the Pacific jet extension then forces a strong Aleutian / GoA LP (yay El Nino) that leads to an anomalous -EPO that is also timed up with a +PNA! no more -EPO/-PNA crap from last year, it seems. these patterns are very efficient at driving Arctic air into the CONUS, especially the Plains eastward. given split flow and the displacement of the TPV into SE Canada, there is certainly an increased risk at seeing wintry weather, even south of the M-D line. either way, there is a reason for this pattern to develop... I don't think it's model fantasy BS