poolz1

I was just thinking that it looks like we may have a false start to this pattern next week, warm up a bit for the holidays (of course) and then the pattern becomes better established.

That is one impressive -NAO signal toward the end of the month for an ensemble mean.

That is the way I remember it looking. Cold smoke with a crazy gradient to our south and an endless moisture stream from the SW. One can dream...

My memory is terrible when it comes to past patterns and even minor/mod events. But, that fantasy overrunning event depicted on the models was droll worthy and is etched in my memory. Would love to see an event like that really unfold. For folks with better memories, what past event looked most like that fantasy set up?

Phase 8 with decent amplitude....GEFS should continue to look decent toward the end of the run. Euro with the same look but just a little delayed by a day or two.

0z GEFS with the trough finally east of the HI islands and a trough retrograding into the NE. Out there at the end of the run...so, grain of salt for now. You can see a very nice pattern setting up in the D15-20 if that progression continued.

I agree....but at least over the past few weeks it seems like the GEFS have had a better handle on the LR than the EPS. Just an observation but it wasn't too long ago the EPS was steadfast on a nice +PNA for early Dec and the GEFS wanted no part in it. A consensus inside 10 days on a workable pattern sure would be nice.

I have been waiting to see some fantasy op runs that start to point to a -NAO developing in that timeframe. As you know, these -NAO episodes are rarely picked up on in the long range but once inside D10-12 you can start to see glimpses on op runs and on the ens to a certain extent. 18z thru the 06z run this morning all featured a robust + hight atom moving into GL. The first runs I have seen in a while and it has been 3 in row (4 if you count the 12z run yesterday). But still...like you said, we just can't know yet! Hey, maybe we can get a nice block just before the holidays that produces like the 06z run....

Saw that as well. Same thing on the radar out of Pitt around the same time. Thinking birds myself...

18z GEFS is probably too quick with the progression, or just plain wrong. But the end of the run shows the beginning of what you just described. A hint of lower heights pushing toward the 50/50 region while the ridge begins to redevelop westward into GL. A little washed but definitely some members seeing it. Would be nice to see a decent pattern setting up for late Dec. Just in time for prime climo.

EPS really honking the scan ridging in the LR.

The one consistent theme in the LR is the Aleutian ridge and the Barents/Kara Sea ridge. Both are poised to squeeze the PV into NA if tropical forcing can cooperate for a time and allow the PAC ridge to go poleward. Wishful thinking? Absolutely! I will remain optimistic and hopeful...why? Because if it doesn't snow life will still go on. Though, I will admit this place can beat you down with negativity...

Maybe some coatings late tonight/early am...

As Wentz said, that transitory +PNA is key. Ops are jumping around with it's placement but the signal is there for a ridge to pop. Ens are showing it as well but are just a little washed...plenty of uncertainty on placement, strength and orientation. Some interesting ingredients are there. Plenty of Arctic air ready to be tapped just prior to any ridging going up.

Can you still post pics from a link from sites like imgur? I have had no success with trying to post links to pics or gifs. I only have the option for posting the site restriction of .00000000001MB

Broke into the teens for the first time. 19.4 for the low.

Well, if the eps is correct towards the end of the run (big if) this may be a fun ride after turkey day! Cross polar flow, with still a nice GL blocking signal.

Euro ens again trying to pull the trough back in the west and create a real deal winter pattern as we close out Nov. Seems like something shifted overnight with both GEFS (as CAPE posted) and the euro looking better in the LR. Maybe MJO related?

That sounds outstanding. I have been advocating for a beach Thanksgiving for years....but, you know family traditions die hard and I have been voted down each time.

Some digital love from the always accurate control!

Somehow people on here can pull up stuff from memory. Not this guy. PSU just referenced a WAA event in 2018 and I had no memory of it! lol Maybe this is what you are looking for? I use it quite a bit when memory fails...which is often. https://psl.noaa.gov/data/composites/day/

Getting that uneasy feeling that the trough pulling back off the west coast of NA is a can that gets kicked. GEFS have been backing off a bit but the euro still likes a massive PNA ridge to develop and the trough in a nice spot to pump that ridge.. Wouldn't be surprising I guess to see the GEFS be correct on this given what all know is most likely this season.

30.4 when I left the house this morning at 5am. Heavy frost....will have to see when I get home if the temp dropped further into the upper 20s.

Pretty much like this forum now. Only difference will be that PSU has to put on pants now to relay random stats from past winters....broken down by elevation. lol j/k I actually like this idea as well...would certainly add value to an already great, informative place.