poolz1

Maybe a nod towards the GFS with how it handles SE Canada? Hopefully the GFS starts to bleed toward the Euro.

Same obs here as well. Maybe it is just wishful thinking but with the look of radar and current dryish air I am feeling a bit more confident in something other than a slushy coating. I guess we will know in the next couple of hours.

Not bad and probably realistic the way things stand now. Would be nice to a slow tick south with that initial "nose" of WAA precipitation.

Or...southerly flow from the surface to the stratosphere may have something to do with it?

Why do you think they are spending time in the LR thread? Its like a smoker saying they are going to quit smoking while smoking a cig.

I grew up in a similar spot...Walkersville. Our driveway was about 100yds long and uphill. Remember my sister's car sliding down the driveway, after a failed attempt to make it up. Slid off the driveway and stayed on top of the snow and into the woods.

12z EPS continues the trend of pushing the boundary further south and east for the 22nd storm and others after. The look up top continues to look better as well. Pretty impressive snapshot.

I was surprised that he used the ext gefs to make a point about the strength of the SPV. I mean, a D10 forecast is pretty flimsy when it comes to predicting this stuff let alone 30 days. I don't know the dude he is replying to but he is making a point about a D10-15 op run. Which in itself is flimsy...

It is premature, imo, to give so much weight to reverting back to a nina climo. It is more like "it has to happen at some point, right?" The recent mjo rotation sent it into the cod and then into the warm phases. But, those warm phases did not produce nina warmth, they produced nino warmth. One would have thought we would have seen a classic nina pattern once the mojo was no longer the driver...but not so. I don't claim to know much but going with enso as a lr forecasting tool seems a bit riskier than normal this season.

7/-9 Fire in the fireplace and prime in the oven.....

Check out the Mr. Pizza Cam in Buffalo... wow! https://buffalowebcam.com/live-webcams/buffalo-ny-elmwood-ave-mr-pizza

Just a heads up...traffic cams past Frostburg show some rough driving conditions. Just tire tracks visible

Looks like the front is about to push through Cumberland...as best I can tell. Single digits pushing into western WV/PA

That traffic cam out of Keysers Ridge looks pretty intense. Hope travelers are prepared...this batch of rain moving through now increases the chance of flash freezing on the roadways.

May be the first time I wake up early to track a cold front. Gonna be fun to watch even if no snow occurs. 2.08" so far and the creek has spilled into the yard. Sounds like a freight train outside. At least the dog won't be tracking mud in for the next few days.

1.44" so far and the creek is almost out of its banks. Unfortunately, only about a half inch of slush left here.

Column must be continuing to cool some. Now light returns are remaining all snow. Solid coating so far but hoping to hold on for a few more hours as the next batch moves in.

Latest HRRR with plenty of 1"/hr+ rates tomorrow morning as NWS noted in their latest AFD.

That coastal low will do its job in turning the flow NE even for your area temporarily. Out here, surface flow doesn't turn S/SE until 06z or so Fri. Kind of a crazy little micro climate before the big arctic push.

Think maybe that DP is off? Im at 20 up here...HGR is reporting a 19 degree DP. Regardless...I do agree that temps are running a bit lower than forecasted. I am at 28 and the forecasted low is 29 here. I'll expect the typical few degree bump once clouds roll in.

I care man! Ha! I do like the trend so far for temps to remain pretty much in the 30s west of the BR before the front moves through. Should be able to hold onto some snow cover if we can get a nice burst for a few hours. Typically, these things trend a bit colder and faster....as you know.

Not to beat a dead horse but those temp drops are insane. MBY - 45 at 7am, 14 at noon, single digits by 5pm with winds gusting 40+. Just need a roof blizzard to go along with it....

Cant deny the trend for more of the tpv being pealed off and creating some confluence. No indication that it makes a ton of difference so far, especially for eastern areas. But, if things keep trending for another 24hr it may create a scenario of more frozen. GFS - CMC

Yes! '14. I remember being on the outside looking in with the majority of the ULL pass. Still put down around a foot imby but I think places east had close to 2'. Would you consider the GFS/Euro to be a similar evolution to the feb 14 storm?