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poolz1

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Everything posted by poolz1

  1. poolz1
    Not a bad look for an ens mean 9-10D out. Would be great to score something during the "torch" before heading into primetime.
  2. poolz1
    3.2" matches exactly the last storm's total. Unless a streamer adds a bit more I think that's about it. Light snow 30/27 5.5" snow pack.
  3. poolz1
    Oddly consistent this morning with such a narrow band. 3k NAM shows the same thing.
  4. poolz1
    Gotcha. A bit west of town. I follow their reporting on Weatherlink as one of my local stations.
  5. poolz1
    Im 2mi SE of the town of keedysville and can confirm there was a period of light snow with larger flakes. Back to finer snow now, I measure just over 2" about 45 minutes ago. But, I was living on the extreme NW side of the heavier stuff this morning. Where exactly is the site location? Out of curiosity...
  6. poolz1
    Light snow falling but nice fluffy flakes. Just measured 2.1"
  7. poolz1
    Mod snow...eyeballing .5"+ 25/22 Interesting that band from roughly HGR-DC is still there on the NAM/HRRR.
  8. poolz1
    Currently 10 after a high of 25 today. Looks like tuesday will be the first opportunity to get above freezing.
  9. poolz1
    It would be more challenging but it would certainly feel like winter. Amped systems cut and we hope for timing something...sort of what we just went through. Others more knowledgeable could probably parse potential ground truth outcomes better than I can.
  10. poolz1
    Absolutely. Always hard to tell if these are head fakes or if it is truly picking up on a return to a favorable HL look. Wait and see. At least it isn't 50 degrees and brown outside while we discuss winter returning.
  11. poolz1
    12z GEFS with the first signs of Blocking showing up. TPV dropping further south as a result. Would prefer not to have to deal with a TPV center over Hudson Bay again....hopefully we can get this to slide east over time.
  12. poolz1
    12/11: .5" 1/6: 1.5" 1/15-16: 3.25 Season Total: 5.25"
  13. poolz1
    Looks like a bit of blowing snow in the usual trouble spots later today and tonight. Anyone who drives 340 to Fred knows what I'm talking about.
  14. poolz1
    3.2" Thrilled with that considering 48 hours ago I was thinking 1-2 was a realistic target for out this way. Still leaves me hungry for more though.
  15. poolz1
    Steady moderate snow. Just measured 2.25"
  16. poolz1
    Pushing an inch here. Steadier snow finally starting to accumulate. 24f perfect evening with a fire crackling...
  17. poolz1
    What a beautiful forum wide pleaser! Damn...
  18. poolz1
    Agreed. Euro also brings our sw into the CA/OR border. GFS has been consistent into Seattle. SW coming into the west coast further south and more phasing of the first system both allow for more separation.
  19. poolz1
    1.35" so far. Wind has really picked up in last 30 minutes. Frequent gust 30+
  20. poolz1
    A major SSWE is too much of a gamble imho. The HLs are already primed for being blocky this winter and throwing in a major shake up could have undesirable results. Id love to see the PV just get kicked in the stones a few times throughout the early-mid season. Upping the ante for a decent stretch of chances for cold and snow in an overall blocked pattern. As soon as the GEFS backed away from the idea of a true split the LR now looks much better than yesterdays runs. Just my novice 2c.
  21. poolz1
    A come to Papa look!
  22. poolz1
    Fantasy land material but here comes the west based block with a TPV trapped in a decent location. Not worth mentioning I guess but ens have been hinting at this.
  23. poolz1
    Yesterday's ext GEFS showing the more classic -NAO look in week 3+. Sorry if already posted. Nice to see those looks continue at the end of today's runs.
  24. poolz1
    One worry to check off the list for the foreseeable future is any type of SPV recovery and consolidation over the pole. This is a h384 plot but warming starts around D8. GEFS have been consistent and pretty impressive for an ens mean. This should go well with our -NAO in late Jan-Feb.
  25. poolz1
    Will, go on TT and look at the GEFS 850 anom from 6 days ago and compare to the current look. It didn't do a bad job. But the glaring difference between 6 days ago and now is why we track every sw as long as it takes a decent track. A sneaky high nosing in, a ns wave that wasnt modeled ushers in cold enough air etc... The hints of a transient 50/50 out at D10-11 can throw a wrench in that look if it gets some legs over the next few days.
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