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poolz1

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Everything posted by poolz1

  1. poolz1
    3.2" Thrilled with that considering 48 hours ago I was thinking 1-2 was a realistic target for out this way. Still leaves me hungry for more though.
  2. poolz1
    Steady moderate snow. Just measured 2.25"
  3. poolz1
    Pushing an inch here. Steadier snow finally starting to accumulate. 24f perfect evening with a fire crackling...
  4. poolz1
    What a beautiful forum wide pleaser! Damn...
  5. poolz1
    Agreed. Euro also brings our sw into the CA/OR border. GFS has been consistent into Seattle. SW coming into the west coast further south and more phasing of the first system both allow for more separation.
  6. poolz1
    1.35" so far. Wind has really picked up in last 30 minutes. Frequent gust 30+
  7. poolz1
    A major SSWE is too much of a gamble imho. The HLs are already primed for being blocky this winter and throwing in a major shake up could have undesirable results. Id love to see the PV just get kicked in the stones a few times throughout the early-mid season. Upping the ante for a decent stretch of chances for cold and snow in an overall blocked pattern. As soon as the GEFS backed away from the idea of a true split the LR now looks much better than yesterdays runs. Just my novice 2c.
  8. poolz1
    A come to Papa look!
  9. poolz1
    Fantasy land material but here comes the west based block with a TPV trapped in a decent location. Not worth mentioning I guess but ens have been hinting at this.
  10. poolz1
    Yesterday's ext GEFS showing the more classic -NAO look in week 3+. Sorry if already posted. Nice to see those looks continue at the end of today's runs.
  11. poolz1
    One worry to check off the list for the foreseeable future is any type of SPV recovery and consolidation over the pole. This is a h384 plot but warming starts around D8. GEFS have been consistent and pretty impressive for an ens mean. This should go well with our -NAO in late Jan-Feb.
  12. poolz1
    Will, go on TT and look at the GEFS 850 anom from 6 days ago and compare to the current look. It didn't do a bad job. But the glaring difference between 6 days ago and now is why we track every sw as long as it takes a decent track. A sneaky high nosing in, a ns wave that wasnt modeled ushers in cold enough air etc... The hints of a transient 50/50 out at D10-11 can throw a wrench in that look if it gets some legs over the next few days.
  13. poolz1
    Agreed that it just a matter of time and this is a great sign for winter in general. But, the airmass is respectable...just no block to lock in the high. Dews 12 hrs before precip are in the low 10s high single digits. Just need to adjust timing on either feature and we have a decent thread the needle event. Looks like 12z GEFS.
  14. poolz1
    Compared to 6z, 12z GEFS show a nice step in the right direction for the 28-30th timeframe. Obvious signs of a low coming out of the gulf and more of a HP signal to the north. Even bit of a CAD showing up.
  15. poolz1
    No doubt a very long shot with this one. But long shots are better than no shots especially with the LR look on the ens. The ICON switched to this idea and the GFS to some extent as well. Wait n see....
  16. poolz1
    Monday is still changing. Ji noted yesterday the possible interaction with a N stream piece that would offer cold enough air to support snow. A long shot since the storm is on its exit as whatever cold is coming in. But, the 12z suite so far has introduced the idea that a secondary storm may form and have the time to interact. I just keep thinking about how much the last storm changed on the models when we were in the 4-6 day timeframe.
  17. poolz1
    21756 12/11 -.5"
  18. poolz1
    Recorded .5" here but my house sets at a pretty low elevation along a creek. Looks like a general 1-2" once you get above 6-700'. If this airmass could have been just a respectable one...
  19. poolz1
    33.7/32 Mod snow. Slushy accumulation on elevated surfaces.
  20. poolz1
    Rain/snow mix. 36/34
  21. poolz1
    Have a pretty consistent westerly component to the wind now. 55.6f at 4pm and 51.8 currently.
  22. poolz1
    If anything, Sunday looks like an interesting weather day. A few GEFS and EPS members look like the Euro op. Obviously, a long shot and probably not many interested in cold chasing warm especially east of the BR. But hopefully this storm at least marks the end of our boring weather streak.
  23. poolz1
    Great explanation. Much appreciated...my comment about the PDO truly was a question. Wasn't trying for a doom and gloom post, just an observation.
  24. poolz1
    MJO is forecast to fade into the null phase out of warm phases and shows no interest in amplifying. SOI hovering around 0 the past week or so. Nino seems to be asleep when it comes to influencing the PAC pattern. Until something changes the -PDO will rule the PAC i guess?
  25. poolz1
    And is why we usually drip drip drip a few days after a big storm. Just like the h5 post from PSU yesterday about the mid-nov storm in 87. The plot was the day(s) of the storm. But leading into that storm had a great pattern....the day of not so much. Early in the winter season so far but the varying pattern makes me thing we shouldn't be surprised about a surprise.
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