poolz1

Another image to clutter the thread it but shows an interesting feature off the west coast. Over the past 24 hours the GEFS have trended to make the trough east of HI the dominant trough in the PAC. Not strong enough to send a major PNA ridge up and force a cold/dry pattern but enough to entice some mild ridging in the rockies. Maybe this feature will be what spins off plenty pieces of energy to play with as the NAO matures/relaxes.

BWI: 22.4 DCA: 17.1 IAD: 27.4 RIC: 10.6 SBY: 14.2

Good to hear from you man. Patience no doubt for the both of us but the coastal plain may have to be even more patient. I did like the 12z eps not just for the burnt orange in right spots but also the quicker release of the "handshake" between the Canadian TPV and the break-off ULL off Cali. Resulting in a more neutral PNA. I get the pitfalls of parsing LR progs but the stout NAO seems like a pretty good bet. The ancillary pluses and minuses may dictate whether we need to break out snowblowers or just continue our Nina frustration. At least the beginning of this flick has grabbed our attention!

Not that we have had a shortage of beautiful looks but this EPS run was stellar. ^ Very end of the run shows a retrograding tough into the east coast with a stable and stout west based block.

It is pretty nice to see ens of all 3 globals with a robust block that appears stable. One constant moving forward is the supply of 50/50 lows. Even through the brief warm up coming we still see this feature.

12z gefs with a workable PAC now late in the run. Pretty sizable shift toward CAPE's eps post earlier.

21. Coldest morning of the season

This was just figured out last year?

Regarding the Thanksgiving time storm potential. Yesterday's 12z run the GEFS started the idea of backing the trough off the west coast. Some those runs that nose a fresh cold high down in time may start to get some legs. Ens now showing surface high pressure in SE Can and New England compared to 24 hours ago.

It has been rain since the leading edge came through as snow. Changed to a mod sleet/rain mix now.

First flakes of the season! 35 degrees

Someone is going to thump tomorrow evening. Maybe closer in than previously modeled as things today have inched cooler.

1.8" total

Dude, the Monday before thanksgiving is only 10 days away. lol. You act like peeps are wanting snow in sept.

100%. I had a legit case of the flu during the 16 blizzard and still when out every few hours just to feel the fury. Biggest snow I have ever witnessed but felt like arse.

If anything, Ian has left the beaches of NJ south to the outer banks vulnerable as we head deeper into Fall. Some of the beach erosion in NJ has been pretty bad.

Looks like some lightning in those cells heading west! Maybe the heaviest batch of the event for the eastern folks.

Some wild radar returns and and motions over the past 24 hours. Radar looks like the sky is tearing apart over the eastern shore and DE right now. .91" since 7am this morning. 2.17" total so far.

Winterwxluvr is seething right now

12z vs 0z

@clskinsfan Your southern most web cam is raging right now! Pretty impressive.

You could slather roadkill with cream cheese frosting and it would be delicious.

A pretty extended easterly fetch coming into the MA beaches on the GFS.

12z includes more tracks that take Ian into the ATL. 12z ICON appears to be heading that way as well....Ian's end game still up in the air.

Should we be routing for a FL traverse and secondary landfall? Seems those runs are the only ones that give us a widespread impactful event. I guess the H to the north could trend weaker but that hasn't been the case over the past 48hr.