poolz1

You look to be in a good spot man. I am on the southern end of this "band" and its a nice, steady light snow but beautiful fluffy dendrites falling now as thing the dry air fades. Not quite a car topper here but getting there.

Looks like that initial slug was just a blip...still light snow here but its pulling north. Once the stuff down near Luray gets up here it should be game on. Not too much longer.

Had about an hour of flurries being right on the edge of the precip. Light snow finally! 34/27

Little bit of a chilly airmass there at the end of the GFS run. Obviously, the end of an op run but with the projected pattern something extreme is on the table imo.

This thing is booking it...no surprise there but western areas may see first flakes before the sun sets. Weenie radar with returns reaching out for SW WV already.

Looks like a busy period ahead. Most likely 3 events in 7 days for the MA. Ops have plenty of chances throughout the next two weeks. I do see the dryish look on the ens but wonder how much of that is due to a cluster of members having the entire tpv dropping down for an extended period and crushing everything....skewing things drier on the mean?

Funny...I often think about this during the warm season. What if this was snow? Models calling for .5-.75" and we end up with .25" Nobody cares when its 65 and rain...hardly even mentioned or noticed. In Jan ending up with 1-2" when the forecast was 4-8" would create epic meltdowns. As winter approaches we all get out our magnifying glasses and browbeat any model not within .2" of verification.

Honestly curious, what data do you have to support anything different? Not doubt that the verification scores still suggest the euro is king. But these scores, at least the ones I have seen, only score NH H5. Each season, any global can have its own reign at the top when it comes to discrete systems. I have seen no scores when it comes to LP systems in our tiny corner of the NH....60 hours out. But, I would certainly take a correction from someone more knowledgeable than myself....and that aint hard to find!

Less separation, stronger lead wave....Bad. BUT the lead wave over the NE gets outta the way and has less trailing energy to continue suppressing. Like you said tho....NAM

Lets just lock that up right now please... A classic region wide light/mod event. All snow for just about everyone. Living vicariously through traffic cams sucks.

Need the gfs to sharpen its trough pencil...

Looking at the very long range...what else is there to do but stare at my brown grass! GEFS, CMC ens and EPS have a pretty nice signal out there around D12 for a coastal. Obviously, I'm focussing on what is right in front us but just noting that having all 3 global ens look pretty similar that far out is not common.

Just going for a coating here but that may be a stretch. You can see the push north in the returns over WV as the storm gains strength and some lat. That move is my only hope! Congrats to those s and e....enjoy the pasting!

It is pretty nuts...I don't think I have ever been right on the line of such a sharp gradient. I could honestly see getting 1-3" or not a single flake imby.

Good calls today... I honestly wrote this one off for up this way. With the qpf output from the GFS it looks like I will stay up for the 0z runs. Expectations have been elevated to just above ground level! Just need this thing to continue to amp up....

18z Euro and eps with a bit more stream separation for the 1/2-3 system. 18z op actually looked poised to produce something similar to the 18z gfs.

I've just gutted out our bathroom to it's bones! Certainly occupying my time but like you said....I'm jonesing for some snow. A well timed vort or 2 seems like a good bet, imo. Just give me one solid event....

Lol...I am to the point where I just want something other than a nina. This hobby gets tiresome in years like this. We'll earn every damn flake we see this year no doubt.

Just going off today's RMM plots...

An encouraging MJO forecast today. We may possibly see an extended phase 8...

Appreciate it. As cbmclean said, I recall praying for the PAC jet to chill out last winter. But, our MJO phases were completely different, iirc? The never-ending hobby....always more to learn. Cheers!

Great point....I have been thinking the exact same thing. I see CAPE's point above but still don't quite get it tbh. Maybe a case of like everything else in life...moderation is best. As I sip on my third bourbon! lol

Cherry picking obviously....but just another op run with a wild +anom over the top. The exact location and expanse changes each run but pretty consistent with an extreme ridge in the Arctic region at 500 in the LR. Usually when the op consistently sees something like this the ens will adjust. No idea if it means snow and cold for our region but definitely something new compared to what we have now. Something changes drastically around h300 over the past few runs. The stagnant PAC ridge gets shoved poleward and a new regime settles into the Pacific. Possibly the jet extension that was mentioned.... which is certainly noticeable around that same hour. Latest is a 582dm ridge just north of AK.

Glazed orange rolls....

Though this is the timeframe others have noted @CAPE.... 12z euro with a close call on something better than a wave running a boundary.