
poolz1
Members-
Posts
2,702 -
Joined
-
Last visited
Content Type
Profiles
Blogs
Forums
American Weather
Media Demo
Store
Gallery
Everything posted by poolz1
-
Dude, that's awesome! 3.5 already! Mod/hvy here now in this band. finally some real snow....been jonesing a while for this.
-
Nice puff balls falling at a light/mod clip. .5" so far. Lets get this cranking!
-
Living on the edge....still light snow even though the radar looks meh right over mby. Enough for a coating so far.
-
You look to be in a good spot man. I am on the southern end of this "band" and its a nice, steady light snow but beautiful fluffy dendrites falling now as thing the dry air fades. Not quite a car topper here but getting there.
-
Looks like that initial slug was just a blip...still light snow here but its pulling north. Once the stuff down near Luray gets up here it should be game on. Not too much longer.
-
Had about an hour of flurries being right on the edge of the precip. Light snow finally! 34/27
-
Little bit of a chilly airmass there at the end of the GFS run. Obviously, the end of an op run but with the projected pattern something extreme is on the table imo.
-
This thing is booking it...no surprise there but western areas may see first flakes before the sun sets. Weenie radar with returns reaching out for SW WV already.
-
Looks like a busy period ahead. Most likely 3 events in 7 days for the MA. Ops have plenty of chances throughout the next two weeks. I do see the dryish look on the ens but wonder how much of that is due to a cluster of members having the entire tpv dropping down for an extended period and crushing everything....skewing things drier on the mean?
-
Funny...I often think about this during the warm season. What if this was snow? Models calling for .5-.75" and we end up with .25" Nobody cares when its 65 and rain...hardly even mentioned or noticed. In Jan ending up with 1-2" when the forecast was 4-8" would create epic meltdowns. As winter approaches we all get out our magnifying glasses and browbeat any model not within .2" of verification.
-
Honestly curious, what data do you have to support anything different? Not doubt that the verification scores still suggest the euro is king. But these scores, at least the ones I have seen, only score NH H5. Each season, any global can have its own reign at the top when it comes to discrete systems. I have seen no scores when it comes to LP systems in our tiny corner of the NH....60 hours out. But, I would certainly take a correction from someone more knowledgeable than myself....and that aint hard to find!
-
Less separation, stronger lead wave....Bad. BUT the lead wave over the NE gets outta the way and has less trailing energy to continue suppressing. Like you said tho....NAM
-
Lets just lock that up right now please... A classic region wide light/mod event. All snow for just about everyone. Living vicariously through traffic cams sucks.
-
Need the gfs to sharpen its trough pencil...
-
Looking at the very long range...what else is there to do but stare at my brown grass! GEFS, CMC ens and EPS have a pretty nice signal out there around D12 for a coastal. Obviously, I'm focussing on what is right in front us but just noting that having all 3 global ens look pretty similar that far out is not common.
-
Just going for a coating here but that may be a stretch. You can see the push north in the returns over WV as the storm gains strength and some lat. That move is my only hope! Congrats to those s and e....enjoy the pasting!
-
It is pretty nuts...I don't think I have ever been right on the line of such a sharp gradient. I could honestly see getting 1-3" or not a single flake imby.
-
Good calls today... I honestly wrote this one off for up this way. With the qpf output from the GFS it looks like I will stay up for the 0z runs. Expectations have been elevated to just above ground level! Just need this thing to continue to amp up....
-
18z Euro and eps with a bit more stream separation for the 1/2-3 system. 18z op actually looked poised to produce something similar to the 18z gfs.
-
I've just gutted out our bathroom to it's bones! Certainly occupying my time but like you said....I'm jonesing for some snow. A well timed vort or 2 seems like a good bet, imo. Just give me one solid event....
-
Lol...I am to the point where I just want something other than a nina. This hobby gets tiresome in years like this. We'll earn every damn flake we see this year no doubt.
-
-
-
Appreciate it. As cbmclean said, I recall praying for the PAC jet to chill out last winter. But, our MJO phases were completely different, iirc? The never-ending hobby....always more to learn. Cheers!
-
Great point....I have been thinking the exact same thing. I see CAPE's point above but still don't quite get it tbh. Maybe a case of like everything else in life...moderation is best. As I sip on my third bourbon! lol