poolz1
-
Posts
2,614 -
Joined
-
Last visited
Content Type
Profiles
Blogs
Forums
American Weather
Media Demo
Store
Gallery
Everything posted by poolz1
-
What professional forecasting outfit responds to a guy with 66 followers like this? No Pro met can get a fair shake in here or on social but this is just some JV shit if you ask me.
-
Probably not. Another way you can tell we are snow-starved is every post contains a reverse psychology P.S. sentence! How about that block on the 18z GEFS....lawdy!
-
It would be perfect, man. Just what we need...something that is not too complicated and gets us all to a warning level event. Cold smoke verbatim... Actually, a pretty good real world type of system for the pattern being depicted on the ens.
-
Def an encouraging look from the eps. Closed ridge over baffin even at D15 and a beast 50/50 signature at the same time....trough backing into the east coast and certainly a colder run.
-
The forecasted -NAM still seems pretty bullish. Honestly, this is about the time of year I stop even looking at enso or even strat. This years warming event has kept me interested a little longer. But, as you know, any large scale change to a pattern driver has a lag effect too long for me to care much. lol.
-
It seems like the models have been teetering on the edge of that look for days....EPS finally took the bait. All teles on the EPS are trending the wrong way in the very LR. I wonder if the return to a classic base state look is in response to the AO/NAO going neutral or if blocking starts to fade due to the return of the base state look? The response to the SWE and propensity for blocking so far leads me hedge my bet that that look on the EPS gets can kicked for a while.
-
You would think one of those PAC SW's should give us a moderate snowfall in the LR. Blocking, 50/50s, plenty of cold and multiple pieces of energy coming into the Pac NW. Some get sheared....some get suppressed but multiple opportunities. Ens picking up on this as well.
-
If the gfs just went out 450 hours....
-
Well @nj2va wanted upslope...he just got his fantasy HECS! Would be epic.....
-
Para looking pretty good so far....
-
Yeah, its not like we have good confluence to the north to block a west track or coastal hugger. A delicate setup where we have hit it just right....what else is new?
-
Very similar to what the ICON just spit out. So close to a phase or at least enough interaction to bring it further NW and expand the precip shield. Two decent runs imo.
-
I thought the NAM actually looked promising early on. ULL further north, less confluence and appeared to be a north shift. Then it just gets its face shoved in the sand by the vort coming down from the north. Cant wait until we can extrapolate for the 1/11 threat.
-
GEFS are pretty adamant that the coldest anoms in the NH shift to NA in the LR. Not saying its good or bad for snow prospects but its impressive to see how quick the extreme cold fades across east Asia and forms in NA. Cross polar flow stole it right out from under them....
-
One more pic! Impressive how much the EPS looks like the op at H5.
-
Congrats GA?? Lets start the 0z suite off with less confluence and the NAM did that at least. Baby steps from now until Fri... CHO jackpot!
-
GFS again dropping a TPV lobe down around D12. Ensembles are picking up on this and seem to want to rotate it into the 50/50 region/SE Can toward the end of their runs. Timing is dif on each and its muted due to the range. This lines up with the calls for post 1/15 cold. At that point we still have a -NAO/AO and a nice pac but we can add in some decent midwinter cold as well.
-
Hey, Binghamton weenies were probably having this same discussion 4 days before the Dec storm.
-
I also wonder if the scattershot of sw's calms down a bit once we see the west coast ridging start to pop. Like PSU said...certainly not a long track pattern.
-
What's amazing is that piece is pretty weak and insignificant when it enters the west coast but it still plows right through the block and re-emerges to meet up with the 50/50. I guess another possible trend would be that the blocking over Hudson Bay shreds/weakens it.
-
Just my 2c but I think our best bet would be for the NS energy to trend weaker or just go away. The 50/50 placement/shape hasn't really changed and I dont see how we could ever get that NS piece to drop far enough west. Its gonna rotate around the 50/50 and that feature is being modeled pretty consistently across most guidance. I am sure there are other minor features that could change the final motion of that NS piece but due to my amateur eye nothing is sticking out to me.
-
Here's our digital snow!
-
It sure is nice to not be looking at just a 5-7 day window here. That D13 EPS panel basically looks the same at D15 and we have 2-3 threats to track in a very good pattern just through D10. The law of averages increases my expectations more than usual here. Although, I do have the ability to happily go about my normal life if we do fail. Id rather alter my perspective and enjoy the highs of expectations....its just snow. (ducks)
-
Disjointed...so close to a bigger run. At one point you have one sw diving in to the trough from the NE and one at the same time diving in from the NW. Euro is good but not that good to have this figured out.
-
Good burst of rain, sleet and a few flakes.... up to 37
