poolz1
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Everything posted by poolz1
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One more pic! Impressive how much the EPS looks like the op at H5.
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Congrats GA?? Lets start the 0z suite off with less confluence and the NAM did that at least. Baby steps from now until Fri... CHO jackpot!
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GFS again dropping a TPV lobe down around D12. Ensembles are picking up on this and seem to want to rotate it into the 50/50 region/SE Can toward the end of their runs. Timing is dif on each and its muted due to the range. This lines up with the calls for post 1/15 cold. At that point we still have a -NAO/AO and a nice pac but we can add in some decent midwinter cold as well.
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Hey, Binghamton weenies were probably having this same discussion 4 days before the Dec storm.
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I also wonder if the scattershot of sw's calms down a bit once we see the west coast ridging start to pop. Like PSU said...certainly not a long track pattern.
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What's amazing is that piece is pretty weak and insignificant when it enters the west coast but it still plows right through the block and re-emerges to meet up with the 50/50. I guess another possible trend would be that the blocking over Hudson Bay shreds/weakens it.
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Just my 2c but I think our best bet would be for the NS energy to trend weaker or just go away. The 50/50 placement/shape hasn't really changed and I dont see how we could ever get that NS piece to drop far enough west. Its gonna rotate around the 50/50 and that feature is being modeled pretty consistently across most guidance. I am sure there are other minor features that could change the final motion of that NS piece but due to my amateur eye nothing is sticking out to me.
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Here's our digital snow!
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It sure is nice to not be looking at just a 5-7 day window here. That D13 EPS panel basically looks the same at D15 and we have 2-3 threats to track in a very good pattern just through D10. The law of averages increases my expectations more than usual here. Although, I do have the ability to happily go about my normal life if we do fail. Id rather alter my perspective and enjoy the highs of expectations....its just snow. (ducks)
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Disjointed...so close to a bigger run. At one point you have one sw diving in to the trough from the NE and one at the same time diving in from the NW. Euro is good but not that good to have this figured out.
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Good burst of rain, sleet and a few flakes.... up to 37
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Hard to tell just from the CONUS vies but it looks like the gfs is phasing in the NS @ h84. Either way its a different handling of that piece from the booted east look.
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The end of the Para run may be one of the most extreme looks I have seen....It's an op run but worth a weenie look!. No worries about cold air as an AK ridge dislodges arctic air while the -NAO rages. TPV lobe about to set up shop in SE Can...
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What a great looking MSLP on the gfs but the actual precip is surprisingly anemic. 995 low in a great spot.... Why is that?
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Ha! 33 and rain is all too common in the MA but torrential rain and 33 is something I havent seen very often.
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Got up to 33 yesterday and stayed there all day. Minor ice on the underbrush and pines. Def over an inch but havent measured the spillover from the 1" mark yet. Creek almost came out of its banks after the heavy burst yesterday eve. Soggy, muddy mess...
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My wife and I went to Cartagena in Feb last year...right before the shit hit the fan. Beautiful country....great people/culture/food. We loved it so much we discusses another trip there this winter. Obviously that idea got put on the back burner quick. Not gonna happen anytime in the near future but no doubt we will go back at some point.
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It looks to me that there is STJ influence but the systems originate in the NPAC. Someone can correct me if I am wrong here... My skills lack when it comes to looking above 500mb...adding a little bit of knowledge every year though! By the time I am 80 I should be able to hang with the best of them! lol
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If first you dont succeed...... Starting D7
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Def better than 0z....was kind of surprised looking H5. Great look but a slightly weaker sw signal than 0z. That D10 panel though!
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New weeklies are fantastic through the end of Jan...basically a continuation of what we see on the ens now.
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GFS says Greenland is the new Mongolia
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Yea, the look of the EPS at the end of its run would correct the cold issue pretty quick... You are right tho, its gonna take some time. I am just glad we are not in mid Feb with the finish line in sight....
