poolz1

If you scroll through the remaining frames of the GEPS notice the ATL trough retro back into the east coast..... looks across all guidance in the LR today.

@frd I was just looking at the latest GEFS strat when you posted this.....thinking, boy if we are going to fully couple the pattern just looks classic. Pretty cool watching this in real time and in early Jan to boot! I hate being patient as much as the next guy/gal but the stars seem to be aligning for a wild ride for the rest of the winter season. 06 GEFS have been posted enough but wow man....lets get this inside 10 days and we can start to fill our digital snow needs!

Increasing CAD continues on the 12z gfs....31/32 aint gonna cut it for an icy scenario but a few more changes like this and a sneaky, brief icing event could unfold. Notice the steady push further south into SVA and NC. Dews in the mid/upper 20s showing up along the MD line.

Nice to see some panels that do not show a ridge in the 50/50 region. Interesting that weeklies show heights lowering in that area around the same timeframe....wk 2/3. GEFS starting the second week in Jan...repetitive 50/50 lows and a more traditional -NAO look. Really hope we dont have to kick this can!

Absolutely. I was just discussing that particular run....

Need something to tug and encourage the low to climb the coast even if its not a clean phase....otherwise it's exit stage right. Tho, the NW trend of systems over the past few weeks is something to consider/watch.

Would be nice to see the slower trend continue....so close to a nice event with a transient high to the north as well. As noted above...that ns system diving down would have phased if the ss was just a bit slower.

The Pac is what it is and a strong signal of change just isnt there right now. Griteater's most recent post regarding the polar move of the pac jet ext dampens the hope for a resulting +PNA in the near future. Hopefully we can get some transient episodes... The op gfs, though a disaster does develop a decent PNA ridge post D12 and has been for the last several runs. A little reassuring that this fits well with the hints from its own ens. So many systems in the pipeline seems to be the theme...just a transient ridge could be all we need.

Light snow, roof blizzard.....27 Perfect

HRRR shows a better quick flip to snow in the NW zones but really shows to potential and convective nature of the late afternoon snow showers just south of DC and east. ETA: Long range HRRR so .....

Is it possible that the NAO block bullies/expands west toward AK and improves the PAC? Seems the EPS and GEFS increase heights on the west coast and Ak toward the end of their runs due to an expanding NA block....not necessarily due to the Aleutian trough retreating SW.

To me, the most surprising aspect of that mean is the lower heights off the west coast and extending into AK. Would not have expected that to be the case. Just south enough to give a little PNA love....doesnt have to be some monster PNA ridge out west.

My thoughts exactly....We (myself included) always expect threats to line up exactly with good/great looks but that is rarely the case it seems. I still think the potential is high as we enter Jan....frustrating being patient but I still think this pattern needs to mature. Cant create a logjam in the ATL overnight.

Probably belongs in the digital h5 thread....guess we just need a +5 sig west based block to offset the pac.

Maybe we need a GL bomb to shake things up a little....

lol....right in front of my face. Much appreciated!

Anyone know how to create this on tidbits? Pulled this image from tweeter...

No diesel generator here but I do have a job site generator...4500W which would keep things refrigerated and a few amenities. We have been in this house for 16 yeas and have never lost power for more than 30 minutes...and that has only been a time or two. Rumor has it that the main feed for a military installation on S Mt runs along our backroad and our power is drawn from that. Idk if that is true but we certainly loose cable internet quite a bit after storms and friends around the area loose power often.

NS beating down heights out ahead of it...I thought that was going to be our 96 storm for a few frames. lol

Yea...I def took the low end of whats being advertised. Lots of 50+ on the models. Get your Christmas candles out...or your Christmas generator! Def seems like the gfs is trying to get back to some snow...Flakes would be great. A quick period of rates and stickage....with morning roof blizzards would be perfect...

18z gfs with 2-3" for the 81 corridor....already saturated ground and 40+mph gusts.

I'll certainly take anything to track...May have to let this pattern mature a little into Jan. Hopefully, the calls for increased +PNA start to pan out by then.

A nice west based block...finally some consistent lower heights in the 50/50 region and the gfs just shreds every sw coming east. Need just a mediocre PNA ridge to get something to amplify.

After the D7 potential models replace the vortex around Hudson bay with ridging...tugging/merging with the NAO block. Helping to create a more west based block. A good trend, imo. Better highs and high positions start to show up ..

CMC with a good look at the end of the run...