poolz1

Got up to 33 yesterday and stayed there all day. Minor ice on the underbrush and pines. Def over an inch but havent measured the spillover from the 1" mark yet. Creek almost came out of its banks after the heavy burst yesterday eve. Soggy, muddy mess...

My wife and I went to Cartagena in Feb last year...right before the shit hit the fan. Beautiful country....great people/culture/food. We loved it so much we discusses another trip there this winter. Obviously that idea got put on the back burner quick. Not gonna happen anytime in the near future but no doubt we will go back at some point.

It looks to me that there is STJ influence but the systems originate in the NPAC. Someone can correct me if I am wrong here... My skills lack when it comes to looking above 500mb...adding a little bit of knowledge every year though! By the time I am 80 I should be able to hang with the best of them! lol

If first you dont succeed...... Starting D7

Def better than 0z....was kind of surprised looking H5. Great look but a slightly weaker sw signal than 0z. That D10 panel though!

New weeklies are fantastic through the end of Jan...basically a continuation of what we see on the ens now.

GFS says Greenland is the new Mongolia

Yea, the look of the EPS at the end of its run would correct the cold issue pretty quick... You are right tho, its gonna take some time. I am just glad we are not in mid Feb with the finish line in sight....

If you scroll through the remaining frames of the GEPS notice the ATL trough retro back into the east coast..... looks across all guidance in the LR today.

@frd I was just looking at the latest GEFS strat when you posted this.....thinking, boy if we are going to fully couple the pattern just looks classic. Pretty cool watching this in real time and in early Jan to boot! I hate being patient as much as the next guy/gal but the stars seem to be aligning for a wild ride for the rest of the winter season. 06 GEFS have been posted enough but wow man....lets get this inside 10 days and we can start to fill our digital snow needs!

Increasing CAD continues on the 12z gfs....31/32 aint gonna cut it for an icy scenario but a few more changes like this and a sneaky, brief icing event could unfold. Notice the steady push further south into SVA and NC. Dews in the mid/upper 20s showing up along the MD line.

Nice to see some panels that do not show a ridge in the 50/50 region. Interesting that weeklies show heights lowering in that area around the same timeframe....wk 2/3. GEFS starting the second week in Jan...repetitive 50/50 lows and a more traditional -NAO look. Really hope we dont have to kick this can!

Absolutely. I was just discussing that particular run....

Need something to tug and encourage the low to climb the coast even if its not a clean phase....otherwise it's exit stage right. Tho, the NW trend of systems over the past few weeks is something to consider/watch.

Would be nice to see the slower trend continue....so close to a nice event with a transient high to the north as well. As noted above...that ns system diving down would have phased if the ss was just a bit slower.

The Pac is what it is and a strong signal of change just isnt there right now. Griteater's most recent post regarding the polar move of the pac jet ext dampens the hope for a resulting +PNA in the near future. Hopefully we can get some transient episodes... The op gfs, though a disaster does develop a decent PNA ridge post D12 and has been for the last several runs. A little reassuring that this fits well with the hints from its own ens. So many systems in the pipeline seems to be the theme...just a transient ridge could be all we need.

Light snow, roof blizzard.....27 Perfect

HRRR shows a better quick flip to snow in the NW zones but really shows to potential and convective nature of the late afternoon snow showers just south of DC and east. ETA: Long range HRRR so .....

Is it possible that the NAO block bullies/expands west toward AK and improves the PAC? Seems the EPS and GEFS increase heights on the west coast and Ak toward the end of their runs due to an expanding NA block....not necessarily due to the Aleutian trough retreating SW.

To me, the most surprising aspect of that mean is the lower heights off the west coast and extending into AK. Would not have expected that to be the case. Just south enough to give a little PNA love....doesnt have to be some monster PNA ridge out west.

My thoughts exactly....We (myself included) always expect threats to line up exactly with good/great looks but that is rarely the case it seems. I still think the potential is high as we enter Jan....frustrating being patient but I still think this pattern needs to mature. Cant create a logjam in the ATL overnight.

Probably belongs in the digital h5 thread....guess we just need a +5 sig west based block to offset the pac.

Maybe we need a GL bomb to shake things up a little....