poolz1
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Everything posted by poolz1
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Signal is strong....who know's about frozen vs liquid Last 5 runs
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GEFS trying hard at the trifecta as we near the holidays. Aleutian trough further SW should allow a better PNA ridge this run.... -NAO still cranking as well. A shut out is alway possibility but I feel like tracking will ramp up quickly.
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No shortage of blocking in this op run....just a matter of time until we get our digital snow.
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Extended GEFS and EPS both show the craptastic PAC we knew was right around the corner. But...that look has a notable difference from last year or just a few weeks ago, imo. Without the monster, stable NPAC ridge this could leave the door open for a PNA ridge to pop ever now and again. With the smoothed LR anoms, this could be just what the models are showing. Add in a cooperative ATL.....possible help from the strat and I am cautiously optimistic.
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Any west coast ridging being shoved east head over heels is like deja vu all over again from the past few winters. Little amplification and sw slides off the se coast...gives credence to what the op spit out. Gonna be like pulling teeth but it is what it is...
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I thought 18z was closer to something minor/mod. A long shot but its the closest thing we got right now. Nothing earth shattering here but some energy left behind and therefore a better separation of sw's. Plenty wrong with this frame but plenty of time also. A move in the right direction, imo.
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18z gfs op puts a real hurt'n on the spv... I get all the caveats but good to see op runs pick up on the mid month attack. The more robust the better....Lets throw a major wrench in this nina!
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If it happens I say we officially dub this the @frd storm. lol! j/k
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GFS a little further south with the SE Canada trough....maybe enough to deliver a little cold before it wraps up? A possible trend to watch... ETA: CMC with the same trend...just not going to be enough to get it done as it looks now. A nice cold high would be just what the doc ordered.
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35 and a few nice bursts of snow this morning. Looks like one more to move through...so close to a car topper here.
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I certainly could be wrong here but it seems like there was some hinting at the MJO wave gaining some minor/modest amplitude the past few days. The LR h5 look seemed to be hinting at what we would expect with warm phases. Yesterday and today, the MJO forecast is very muted and mainly resides in the COD and the LR is now looking stellar again. Just a guess....
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Today's forecast just made the waters muddier. Most of the time is spent in the COD if emerging at all....interesting that without influence from tropical forcing, models have a serviceable pattern. I think we are all just waiting for the inevitable return of the NPAC ridge... Then again, maybe we keep this ball rolling a find we have several decent pattern periods throughout winter.
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CAPE's epo ridge going strong on the LR GEFS..... Time to go fill up on carbs!
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Obviously, every hour into the future a model runs the less skill it has. 15 day ens runs are good for general ideas, imo. Just like snow means, and members...useful if used correctly. No doubt though, beyond day 10 is the general ballpark range...which is why I said I'd like to see it move forward in time....
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End of the GEFS run looks mighty tasty.. Hoping to see that look move forward in time....Lets get some decent cold into the pattern so we can have our own digital historic storms.
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Nice to see the ops showing a shuffle in the LR....certainly looking more likely we see a nice west coast ridge. Could go poof in the next few runs like we have seen so many times but if its gonna happen the ops should be picking up on it. 12z gfs continues this idea...just a different interpretation each run.
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Mid-Atlantic winter 2020-21 snowfall contest
poolz1 replied to PrinceFrederickWx's topic in Mid Atlantic
BWI: 17.5" DCA: 11" IAD: 20.5" RIC: 5.5" SBY: 11" -
A product of a +PNA after a several weeks long stint of any cold source being choked off....need some EPO help. Both the GEFS and CFS show a weakening of the SPV around the 20th of Dec. Granted, this predicted weakening is just more of comedown off its high and more toward the ERA5 mean but a weakening nonetheless. The idea of a developing PNA and then more importantly -EPO would make sense in order to start throwing some jabs at the PV.
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Hit 22 for a low but it was 32 when I left the house at 530 this morning.
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Flurries, 34 with a stiff breeze. Definitely a wintry feel outside...
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There we go! Getting very dark to the west..wind is kicking..
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1.36" so far here. Muggy tropical feel this afternoon with several torrential downpours.
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I saw a D10 -NAO start to show up....beautiful 50/50. But yea, the entire NH sucks other than that little straw grasping tidbit.
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Maybe some small glimmers of hope on the ATL side as we get later in Nov but the Pac crap looks pretty darn stable. There does seem to be agreement with a fairly stable 50/50ish low in the LR. Cant imagine the 35 day GEFS have much use but when every member shows a very strong PV you have to think its on to something. CFSv2 shows much more spread but certainly leans in the GEFS direction.
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Lol... Looks like I caught a shot of the first burst just south of Fred Co.
