poolz1

The Mothership has arrived! I'm not a big cloud Guru but this was pretty impressive. Only cloud in the sky at the moment. Sent from my SM-G973U using Tapatalk

Scattered flurries. 36 Looks like another batch on radar slipping SW of HGR.

Agreed. I dont see how we avoid significant bouts of a very unfavorable pac.... We'll be constantly teased with models showing an eastward progression of the MJO and therefore a better looking long range signal in the Pac. At least in this weenie mind, trying to find a silver lining, the 2 main features that seem to stick around on ensembles are the low heights west of the Aleutians and the higher heights in the Scan region. If we can maintain the features somewhat, maybe we can periodically offset what will be occurring in the Pac. Keeping the PV in check and giving us bouts of HLB. As the MJO tries to push into more fav areas, dies and then reemerges over unfavorable areas....these occurrences may be our windows of opportunity this winter? Or, maybe nothing works out as planned (like last year) and we end up with these looks on the regular!

GFS finally coming around to a wetter solution.... A nice temp gradient setting up thursday afternoon as well. Mid/upper 40s for MD Line and pushing 80 in RIC

06z euro has 2"+ amounts by late thursday evening with plenty more to go....00z UK with a broad area of 3"+ for the region. WPC 2"+... Will be interesting to see how things evolve with a large HP pressure pushing in as Zeta and the ULL work in tandem to flood the east with plenty of moisture.

I thought the EPS showed some glimmers of things trending the right way as we near the middle of Nov. Maybe starting with the Pac....all caveats, obviously. I am willing to kick the can a little down the road with any decent pattern. If we truly end up with a front loaded winter...I dont want to waste our only HLB on mid/late Nov.

The AO and NAO have been negative for roughly the past two weeks and this was telegraphed nicely by the ens, imo. Neither the GEFS nor the EPS are forecasting any HLB for the foreseeable future. Not arguing the fact that phantom blocking periods have not been an issue the past year+ but I dont think we can say the same yet for this cold season. Head fakes and magnitude issues are always going to happen with LR ens guidance.

Not snow but it would be plenty cold for some powder! Perfect weather to wake up with a cup a coffee and raid the kids candy bags.

Late oct cane brewing in the Caribbean, deep troughs rotating through the center of the country. Ingredients are there...just have to thread the needle. A long shot but fun to wishcast.

If this this was winter I would be logging off due to the trolls. Everyone would see clearly the bust unfolding... should have 3-5" on the ground by now. Instead I have a solid coating and the radar looks paltry.

Funny, the euro has this winter forecasted to turn out the same as last winter yet had the opposite forecast this time last year. Though, maybe the climate models have a better chance at being somewhat accurate with what looks like a typical atmospheric response to the current enso state...unlike last year. I am fully prepared for fluke hunting this season. Whatever. Work is pouring in and a mild winter would be extremely helpful.

Current SST anomalies are interesting, imo. Though the PDO clocked in at -1 for Sept it did rise from its Aug reading of -1.3. I understand the current state of anomalies are bound to change but if we can manage to keep some semblance of the current look as we enter Dec it would be at least encouraging. The warm water along the west coast, coolish pool where we are used to seeing the blob and an east based (up for debate ) nina. To me it looks close to '95 right now....just the warms are warmer. Sept of 95 had a +pdo...must be 2020's lack of cool anoms to the east of Japan?

Just hit the 1.00" mark here. Mod/hvy rain for the past 2 hours.... Good soaker and much needed.

@frd I have been burned the past few years by assuming our great late fall patterns should resurface during the winter. A lot of other folks on here warned against it and I guess you just have to take your lumps as a weather nut and...live and learn. With that said...it looks like the eps has been steadily hinting at some mid Oct heat coming, along with a continuation of our recent dry conditions.. Id be ok with a week of 70's before the steady slide into winter.

Stability....

Recording a T for last night. 16 days since the last measurable rain here above a T. Looks like that will probably end next week but a heck of a dry stretch. Fall color has started here on the margins....greens are dulled and the deer are freaking everywhere. The fall smallmouth bite is on as well. Here are a few pics from the other eve while fishing the rapids...up river from Harpers Ferry. 7 smallmouth and 1 walleye! Love this time of year....

Besides the 50/50 ridge...Id take this any month Nov-March. That's one heck of a LR signal. It's nice to actually have a fall....and it looks to continue.

Would have preferred to wait a few more weeks to put the plastic on. Point and click has a low of 38 the next several nights...which means 34/35 in this valley with prime evap cooling. Seedlings are just sprouting and dont want to risk it. Cool/cold hardy plants but they are just poking up.... And here is a random pic of a squirrel swimming across the river yesterday. 200+ yard swim from the other side. In all my years fishing I have yet to see a squirrel swimming in the river....until yesterday. I'll consider this a sign of a very harsh winter on the way! He made it to the bank and scampered up a tree like he wasnt even winded...lucky he didnt get snagged by a muskie while on his journey.

Yeah, the stars last night were outstanding. Usually you have to endure temps in the teens to witness a sky that clear....we sat out and gazed for a while. Patchy frost here as well this morning with a low of 35. Stellar weekend on the way!

Line certainly improving as it moves east. .37” here. Torrential rain....minimal wind and a few rumbles. Seemed more tropical than thunder buster....

Certainly a wait and see situation but a heavy rain/ flooding threat certainly looms in the LR....even if there is no organized TC that gets involved. That is one deep moisture feed and over a long duration. D8-15 on the 12z GFS

One good downpour about 30 minutes ago. .37" in about 10 minutes. Had a nice tropical feel sitting on the back patio watching it.

Looks like models are honing in on another areawide soaker on Monday....should be able to pad numbers on an already wet August. Those monthly totals from people S and E are impressive. 3.4" for the month here....a hair above avg. Similar bad luck situation as @losetoa6. Lots of splitting storms at the wrong time and grazes....

Not the best pics but this is my one and only waterspout witnessed! Caught some ocean spray through the binoculars... Pretty weak storm in general...I was surprised it produced anything at all. Only lasted only about 10 minutes. Thursday morning at Sunset Beach.