poolz1

Nice to see the ops showing a shuffle in the LR....certainly looking more likely we see a nice west coast ridge. Could go poof in the next few runs like we have seen so many times but if its gonna happen the ops should be picking up on it. 12z gfs continues this idea...just a different interpretation each run.

BWI: 17.5" DCA: 11" IAD: 20.5" RIC: 5.5" SBY: 11"

A product of a +PNA after a several weeks long stint of any cold source being choked off....need some EPO help. Both the GEFS and CFS show a weakening of the SPV around the 20th of Dec. Granted, this predicted weakening is just more of comedown off its high and more toward the ERA5 mean but a weakening nonetheless. The idea of a developing PNA and then more importantly -EPO would make sense in order to start throwing some jabs at the PV.

Hit 22 for a low but it was 32 when I left the house at 530 this morning.

Flurries, 34 with a stiff breeze. Definitely a wintry feel outside...

There we go! Getting very dark to the west..wind is kicking..

1.36" so far here. Muggy tropical feel this afternoon with several torrential downpours.

I saw a D10 -NAO start to show up....beautiful 50/50. But yea, the entire NH sucks other than that little straw grasping tidbit.

Maybe some small glimmers of hope on the ATL side as we get later in Nov but the Pac crap looks pretty darn stable. There does seem to be agreement with a fairly stable 50/50ish low in the LR. Cant imagine the 35 day GEFS have much use but when every member shows a very strong PV you have to think its on to something. CFSv2 shows much more spread but certainly leans in the GEFS direction.

Lol... Looks like I caught a shot of the first burst just south of Fred Co.

The Mothership has arrived! I'm not a big cloud Guru but this was pretty impressive. Only cloud in the sky at the moment. Sent from my SM-G973U using Tapatalk

Scattered flurries. 36 Looks like another batch on radar slipping SW of HGR.

Agreed. I dont see how we avoid significant bouts of a very unfavorable pac.... We'll be constantly teased with models showing an eastward progression of the MJO and therefore a better looking long range signal in the Pac. At least in this weenie mind, trying to find a silver lining, the 2 main features that seem to stick around on ensembles are the low heights west of the Aleutians and the higher heights in the Scan region. If we can maintain the features somewhat, maybe we can periodically offset what will be occurring in the Pac. Keeping the PV in check and giving us bouts of HLB. As the MJO tries to push into more fav areas, dies and then reemerges over unfavorable areas....these occurrences may be our windows of opportunity this winter? Or, maybe nothing works out as planned (like last year) and we end up with these looks on the regular!

GFS finally coming around to a wetter solution.... A nice temp gradient setting up thursday afternoon as well. Mid/upper 40s for MD Line and pushing 80 in RIC

06z euro has 2"+ amounts by late thursday evening with plenty more to go....00z UK with a broad area of 3"+ for the region. WPC 2"+... Will be interesting to see how things evolve with a large HP pressure pushing in as Zeta and the ULL work in tandem to flood the east with plenty of moisture.

I thought the EPS showed some glimmers of things trending the right way as we near the middle of Nov. Maybe starting with the Pac....all caveats, obviously. I am willing to kick the can a little down the road with any decent pattern. If we truly end up with a front loaded winter...I dont want to waste our only HLB on mid/late Nov.

The AO and NAO have been negative for roughly the past two weeks and this was telegraphed nicely by the ens, imo. Neither the GEFS nor the EPS are forecasting any HLB for the foreseeable future. Not arguing the fact that phantom blocking periods have not been an issue the past year+ but I dont think we can say the same yet for this cold season. Head fakes and magnitude issues are always going to happen with LR ens guidance.

Not snow but it would be plenty cold for some powder! Perfect weather to wake up with a cup a coffee and raid the kids candy bags.

Late oct cane brewing in the Caribbean, deep troughs rotating through the center of the country. Ingredients are there...just have to thread the needle. A long shot but fun to wishcast.

If this this was winter I would be logging off due to the trolls. Everyone would see clearly the bust unfolding... should have 3-5" on the ground by now. Instead I have a solid coating and the radar looks paltry.

Funny, the euro has this winter forecasted to turn out the same as last winter yet had the opposite forecast this time last year. Though, maybe the climate models have a better chance at being somewhat accurate with what looks like a typical atmospheric response to the current enso state...unlike last year. I am fully prepared for fluke hunting this season. Whatever. Work is pouring in and a mild winter would be extremely helpful.

Current SST anomalies are interesting, imo. Though the PDO clocked in at -1 for Sept it did rise from its Aug reading of -1.3. I understand the current state of anomalies are bound to change but if we can manage to keep some semblance of the current look as we enter Dec it would be at least encouraging. The warm water along the west coast, coolish pool where we are used to seeing the blob and an east based (up for debate ) nina. To me it looks close to '95 right now....just the warms are warmer. Sept of 95 had a +pdo...must be 2020's lack of cool anoms to the east of Japan?

Just hit the 1.00" mark here. Mod/hvy rain for the past 2 hours.... Good soaker and much needed.

@frd I have been burned the past few years by assuming our great late fall patterns should resurface during the winter. A lot of other folks on here warned against it and I guess you just have to take your lumps as a weather nut and...live and learn. With that said...it looks like the eps has been steadily hinting at some mid Oct heat coming, along with a continuation of our recent dry conditions.. Id be ok with a week of 70's before the steady slide into winter.