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poolz1

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Everything posted by poolz1

  1. poolz1
    18z GEFS is probably too quick with the progression, or just plain wrong. But the end of the run shows the beginning of what you just described. A hint of lower heights pushing toward the 50/50 region while the ridge begins to redevelop westward into GL. A little washed but definitely some members seeing it. Would be nice to see a decent pattern setting up for late Dec. Just in time for prime climo.
  2. poolz1
    EPS really honking the scan ridging in the LR.
  3. poolz1
    The one consistent theme in the LR is the Aleutian ridge and the Barents/Kara Sea ridge. Both are poised to squeeze the PV into NA if tropical forcing can cooperate for a time and allow the PAC ridge to go poleward. Wishful thinking? Absolutely! I will remain optimistic and hopeful...why? Because if it doesn't snow life will still go on. Though, I will admit this place can beat you down with negativity...
  4. poolz1
    Maybe some coatings late tonight/early am...
  5. poolz1
  6. poolz1
    As Wentz said, that transitory +PNA is key. Ops are jumping around with it's placement but the signal is there for a ridge to pop. Ens are showing it as well but are just a little washed...plenty of uncertainty on placement, strength and orientation. Some interesting ingredients are there. Plenty of Arctic air ready to be tapped just prior to any ridging going up.
  7. poolz1
    Can you still post pics from a link from sites like imgur? I have had no success with trying to post links to pics or gifs. I only have the option for posting the site restriction of .00000000001MB
  8. poolz1
    Broke into the teens for the first time. 19.4 for the low.
  9. poolz1
    Well, if the eps is correct towards the end of the run (big if) this may be a fun ride after turkey day! Cross polar flow, with still a nice GL blocking signal.
  10. poolz1
    Euro ens again trying to pull the trough back in the west and create a real deal winter pattern as we close out Nov. Seems like something shifted overnight with both GEFS (as CAPE posted) and the euro looking better in the LR. Maybe MJO related?
  11. poolz1
    That sounds outstanding. I have been advocating for a beach Thanksgiving for years....but, you know family traditions die hard and I have been voted down each time.
  12. poolz1
    Some digital love from the always accurate control!
  13. poolz1
    Somehow people on here can pull up stuff from memory. Not this guy. PSU just referenced a WAA event in 2018 and I had no memory of it! lol Maybe this is what you are looking for? I use it quite a bit when memory fails...which is often. https://psl.noaa.gov/data/composites/day/
  14. poolz1
    Getting that uneasy feeling that the trough pulling back off the west coast of NA is a can that gets kicked. GEFS have been backing off a bit but the euro still likes a massive PNA ridge to develop and the trough in a nice spot to pump that ridge.. Wouldn't be surprising I guess to see the GEFS be correct on this given what all know is most likely this season.
  15. poolz1
    30.4 when I left the house this morning at 5am. Heavy frost....will have to see when I get home if the temp dropped further into the upper 20s.
  16. poolz1
    Pretty much like this forum now. Only difference will be that PSU has to put on pants now to relay random stats from past winters....broken down by elevation. lol j/k I actually like this idea as well...would certainly add value to an already great, informative place.
  17. poolz1
    +PNA
  18. poolz1
    Looks like a possible relaxation of the PAC jet as we near mid month on the ens. I guess time will tell if this actually holds as we get closer. There is certainly a tendency for HLB of some sort and combined with a favorable PAC could lead to a window of opportunity as we close out Nov. Obviously, a front loaded winter has been touted.
  19. poolz1

    Winter 2021-22

    poolz1 replied to Ji's topic in Mid Atlantic

    This would be a decent sign that HLB may be a mainstay this early winter season.. With punches already being thrown at the PV this would just continue the assault after a brief recovery.
  20. poolz1
    That amount was my thought exactly. 4-5" qpf. Some of the factors that give us our biggest totals are a hindrance to Sierra style snows. We need a constant moisture fetch but too long of a duration will usually wreck the mids resulting in epic meltdowns. Occlusion will happen at some point and shut down the death band. A lack of significant orographic lift if we are talking just around 95. No other body of water to offer additional enhancement.
  21. poolz1

    Winter 2021-22

    poolz1 replied to Ji's topic in Mid Atlantic

    It does...but I guess the positive takeaway, imo, is it shows a good signal for a progressive mjo. Hence, windows of opportunity. Not a lot of great signals in general for this winter. Im just looking for signs of something that will buck the system (best case scenario) or at least a sign that the classic nina pattern could have interruptions. I have no clue and no expectations.
  22. poolz1

    Winter 2021-22

    poolz1 replied to Ji's topic in Mid Atlantic

    Interesting thread regarding the MJO. If something similar plays out this winter we should at least see windows of opportunity.
  23. poolz1
    2.86" Yesterday evening felt just like a tropical system heading north to the west of us. Muggy, clouds racing out of the SSE, wind would pick up with any mod/hvy downpour...etc.
  24. poolz1
    Not sure if this one has been posted? It is one of the wildest videos I have seen....sound up! The view of the exiting tornado after the home owner comes upstairs is just surreal.
  25. poolz1
    Just absolutely torrential for the past hour. Zero wind... Just a still, humid, tropical downpour. Sent from my SM-G973U using Tapatalk
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