poolz1

Need the gfs to sharpen its trough pencil...

Looking at the very long range...what else is there to do but stare at my brown grass! GEFS, CMC ens and EPS have a pretty nice signal out there around D12 for a coastal. Obviously, I'm focussing on what is right in front us but just noting that having all 3 global ens look pretty similar that far out is not common.

Just going for a coating here but that may be a stretch. You can see the push north in the returns over WV as the storm gains strength and some lat. That move is my only hope! Congrats to those s and e....enjoy the pasting!

It is pretty nuts...I don't think I have ever been right on the line of such a sharp gradient. I could honestly see getting 1-3" or not a single flake imby.

Good calls today... I honestly wrote this one off for up this way. With the qpf output from the GFS it looks like I will stay up for the 0z runs. Expectations have been elevated to just above ground level! Just need this thing to continue to amp up....

18z Euro and eps with a bit more stream separation for the 1/2-3 system. 18z op actually looked poised to produce something similar to the 18z gfs.

I've just gutted out our bathroom to it's bones! Certainly occupying my time but like you said....I'm jonesing for some snow. A well timed vort or 2 seems like a good bet, imo. Just give me one solid event....

Lol...I am to the point where I just want something other than a nina. This hobby gets tiresome in years like this. We'll earn every damn flake we see this year no doubt.

Just going off today's RMM plots...

An encouraging MJO forecast today. We may possibly see an extended phase 8...

Appreciate it. As cbmclean said, I recall praying for the PAC jet to chill out last winter. But, our MJO phases were completely different, iirc? The never-ending hobby....always more to learn. Cheers!

Great point....I have been thinking the exact same thing. I see CAPE's point above but still don't quite get it tbh. Maybe a case of like everything else in life...moderation is best. As I sip on my third bourbon! lol

Cherry picking obviously....but just another op run with a wild +anom over the top. The exact location and expanse changes each run but pretty consistent with an extreme ridge in the Arctic region at 500 in the LR. Usually when the op consistently sees something like this the ens will adjust. No idea if it means snow and cold for our region but definitely something new compared to what we have now. Something changes drastically around h300 over the past few runs. The stagnant PAC ridge gets shoved poleward and a new regime settles into the Pacific. Possibly the jet extension that was mentioned.... which is certainly noticeable around that same hour. Latest is a 582dm ridge just north of AK.

Glazed orange rolls....

Though this is the timeframe others have noted @CAPE.... 12z euro with a close call on something better than a wave running a boundary.

Monday morning at 12z with precipitation approaching...Using MRB 18z GFS 34/24 18z Euro 39/31

@wxtrix Beautiful! That caldo verde looks delicious. Kale is tough (in more ways than one) but in a soup with a salted meat you can't go wrong. My first batch of 4 loaves... Nothing overly complicated. A sweet bread, jelly roll style with cinnamon and sugar. A family tradition taught to me by my mom.

Gas it up and come on!

Revival for the holidays! 8 Loaves of cinnamon swirl bread baked yesterday. Glazed orange rolls tomorrow. Standing rib roast Christmas day. My favorite cooking time of year. Tonight...spatchcock chicken in the oven. Broccoli, cabbage and herbs picked from the hoop house this evening.

Agreed, if everything goes right it is a mulch whitener with a crust on top for areas west of the BR. I will take it at this point though....

GFS has a pretty dry airmass overhead... dews in the upper 10's - low 20's on Monday morning. Euro kicks everything just a bit N. Wish I could say I trust the GFS but it seems like the euro has been winning this midrange battle with systems here lately.

Maybe a decent window of opportunity starting 1/1. All 3 global ens with a cold push during this timeframe along with waves running the boundary to our south. Finally, a precip signal that is lining up with some colder temps.

.12" last night. Just went back and looked at my records for this fall. Since Nov 1st only 1.11" has fallen here...including last nights rain. Somehow the dog still tracks mud in the house daily.

I definitely hear what you are saying. But, the pattern is changing right on top of us. It was just 2 weeks ago or so that people were noting how "all the wrong colors are in all the wrong places." The ball of blue over AK and the all of the HLB locations. There are definitely faults to the advertised pattern but we are gnat's hair away from a very nice set up. We aren't yet in the game but the coach has us by the jersey and is ready to put us in! But hey, two weeks we weren't even in the stadium. Personally, just a little help out west would be best. If we get a full on ++PNA that links up over the top the PV will be sitting over Lake Erie....especially with the strength of the west based block. A slow transition that ebbs and flows would be nice.

12z euro ens show the western trough weakening toward the end of the run with the 50/50ish trough becoming dominant. West based block still going strong....