poolz1

Sleet/rain mix right now. Lost 2.6 degrees the past 15 min

Temp drop of 5 degrees the past hour. Atmosphere is starting crank to the west.

When it is this close to game time don't we have models coming out roughly every freakin hour anyways? This is what we do. Having one more hourly model is a warrant "ground rules" lol come on man. 49/41 as cold advection in the wake of the front will be exceptionally strong through a deep layer.

I'll take the 18z RGEM for a fun Saturday morning.

Bar has been to lower to mud" Rain 38/33

36/30 Bar is set at 1". With some decent rates in the morning it should be doable...current wet bulb is around 33.

Build on the good look it had at 6z. ICON went the same direction at h5.

Those locals in Garrett Co should welcome you and your Ducati with open arms! lol

It is a cold climate variety that is grown all the way up in Wisconsin. The constant false start to spring and then return to deep winter cold is the culprit.

17 years at this house which had a nice magnolia tree established when we moved in. I think I have seen it in full bloom a few times. Always prematurely destroyed by March cold. Is this the name of the game with magnolias or is "March is the new Dec" the culprit?

Funny how the later in the season the more your bar raises rapidly. It has to be pretty anomalous for me to be interested this time of year....plenty of other things to start thinking about. A knee high paste job or give me spring. The LR at least has the potential to produce a high qpf event with plenty of cold around.

Spot on man. I have always been an outdoors person and love to build things. Some people do yoga, some meditate but working with your hands outside is just another form of meditation, imo. Laser focused on the task at hand and very little distractions. I have also disconnected from social and it has been so nice. I still use twitter but eliminated everyone I followed with the exception of fishing, gardening, science and weather accounts. You learn real quick that you actually don't gaf what the lunatic fringe thinks....spending the time to read comments on any social will rot your brain and your soul.

I appreciate it! I am certainly no photographer...It was just a quick shot with an iPhone 13. Wish I could get Imgur links to work like they used to in here. I had to really reduce the resolution to get it to upload. Here is the link to the full res if anyone is interested. https://imgur.com/X2cX9Mh

Thanks! It was a surreal scene with the sun breaking through.

Took a stroll with the dog this morning. Looking east at S Mtn still shrouded in low clouds.

Steady freezing rain. 31/30 dropped .8 degrees in the past 30 minutes as soon as steady precip moved in.

Current wet bulb temps across NMD 28-30. Surface flow out of the NNE should maintain these temps with the high anchored north of Lake Ontario

Most of the freezing rain potential comes after the sun goes down tomorrow eve. Dark, 30 and rain will have no problem on trees and power lines especially after a day of temps around freezing. You are going to be in a nasty spot if temps pan out as forecast, imo.

The high does have staying power though... it fades but doesn't run off the to the east with rapid return flow. Typically, these trend colder as we near game time. I know my local climo though, 33.8 with rain is most likely. Just a little elevation to the the north could be in for a nasty icing event, imo.

I'm with ya on that grade. 11.6" here. A march blizzard could change my mind but it has been frustrating so far. Starting to get the itch for some smallmouth fishing and it is still Feb.

Life was easier when the GFS was always more progressive and the euro was always amped/NW. They had to go and upgrade everything and confuse the s

I guess saying "GFS things" is probably the best way to put it. There really doesn't seem to be an obvious bias. The GFS has been too far NW with some systems, too far SE with others and locked in on a few. The last system to affect the midwest was a good example of the GFS being stubbornly NW while the EC and CMC were pretty good if you blended the two.

,09" liquid. Def a lesson in ratios in that most of the snow fell at 31/32 degrees.

1.3" with light snow still falling. Good fluff factor....haven't measured qpf yet but definitely some nice dendrites falling around 330am when I woke up.