WxWatcher007

Terminal radars are updating, but the major ones are not from what I can see.

Anyone else having issues with RadarScope updating?

He doesn’t need to try

With less storms, less tropical, and just as much snow in DJF.

We pray.

When is there a day we don’t have issues? Frustrating.

In the grave now but we’ll see if it comes back from the dead.

So weird. I’m not sure why it’s not showing up.

85/72

Cute little line of storms heading into western Mass. lightning picking up with it for now as it heads east. Edit: with some 35-40k tops too. Not bad for 11pm.

The fog bowl

Tropical Storm Cindy Discussion Number 11 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL042023 500 PM AST Sat Jun 24 2023 The satellite presentation of Cindy this afternoon is fairly unimpressive, with an exposed low-level swirl ejecting quickly northwestward away from the pulsing convection present to its east. Earlier, an Air Force Reserve reconnaissance mission measured Cindy's surface pressure, which was higher than estimated earlier, at 1005 mb. However, the fast motion of the storm this afternoon has still enabled strong winds to exist on the east side of the circulation. The aircraft found peak 850-mb flight-level winds of 59 kt, with the highest SFMR obs up to 50 kt. Thus, despite the rather disheveled appearance , Cindy remains a 50-kt tropical storm for this advisory. However, most of these winds are concentrated in the northeast quadrant, with much lighter winds on its western side. Aircraft fixes indicate that the tropical storm is still moving quickly to the northwest, estimated at 310/18 kt. This quick northwestward motion is forecast to continue for the next 12-18 h, though the track model guidance suggest the system should slow down its forward motion thereafter. There continues to be large divergence in the track guidance after about 24 hours, with the GFS, HWRF, and HAFS guidance on the east side of the track envelope (related to some degree of center reformation or relocation to the northeast), with the CMC, ECMWF, & COAMPS-TC on the west side. The NHC track forecast ops to continue taking a blend between the ECMWF and TVCA consensus aid. Cindy should pass well northeast of the northernmost Leeward Islands tomorrow into Monday. Even though Cindy remains a 50-kt tropical storm, this is as much of a reflection of its quick forward motion than its current organization, which has gone downhill this afternoon, supported by the higher central pressure measured by aircraft observations. Vertical wind shear is forecast to quickly increase to around 30-kt over the next day or so, and that combined with a fairly dry mid-level environment should result in weakening over the next several days. Given the fragile nature of Cindy's circulation currently, it seems likely the tropical cyclone will succumb to the unfavorable environment. In fact, the latest ECMWF forecast shows the tropical cyclone opening up into a trough as soon as in the next 48 hours. While the latest NHC intensity forecast does not show dissipation quite that soon, it has been moved up to 72-h in best agreement with the latest ECMWF and CMC solutions. It should be noted, however, that there remains a significant portion of the guidance that, even if Cindy dissipates, could attempt to regenerate by the end of the forecast period as the shear lowers. However, that is not reflected in the NHC intensity forecast at this time. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 24/2100Z 17.8N 54.7W 50 KT 60 MPH 12H 25/0600Z 19.7N 56.7W 45 KT 50 MPH 24H 25/1800Z 21.8N 58.8W 40 KT 45 MPH 36H 26/0600Z 23.9N 60.6W 40 KT 45 MPH 48H 26/1800Z 25.5N 61.4W 35 KT 40 MPH 60H 27/0600Z 27.0N 62.1W 35 KT 40 MPH 72H 27/1800Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Papin

I know I’m probably the only one who cares, but I’d be watching closely in Atlantic Canada, especially NS. Cindy coming back from the dead after a likely fatal encounter with shear and dry air the next few days has gained steam across guidance, and the seasonal theme of cutoff lows will time itself almost perfectly with a northward moving TC to rocket Cindy north/NNW rather than harmlessly OTS. Unlike virtually the rest of the basin, this area is frigid, so there’s a far lesser chance of a truly significant storm, but an Atlantic Canada landfall is notable any time, especially so early in the season.

Just happened upon an NFL Network show on the craziest wx games and of course it had the greatest snow game ever played.

I think what I posted was a straight up SST map. Not sure about the anomalies but with so much of the basin a furnace I can see how the difference is not too much along the southern edge of the GS.

I came to the realization after a post-workout nap today that it was time to let go. Installed: Saturday, June 24, 2023

End of the line after a valiant fight. Remnants Of Bret Discussion Number 22 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL032023 500 PM EDT Sat Jun 24 2023 Satellite images, surface observations, and ASCAT data from a few hours ago indicate that Bret no longer has a well-defined low-level center. The structure of the system more resembles an open wave or trough with a couple of embedded vorticity maximums. Therefore, the system does not meet the criteria needed to be considered a tropical cyclone, and this is last advisory issued by NHC. The remnants of Bret are still producing 35-kt winds in areas of showers and thunderstorms just north of the northeastern portion of Colombia. These winds are expected to decay as the system continues to move quickly westward. This is the last advisory on Bret. However, additional and future information on this system can be found in High Seas Forecasts issued by the National Weather Service, under AWIPS header NFDHSFAT1, WMO header FZNT01 KWBC, and online at ocean.weather.gov/shtml/NFDHSFAT1.php FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 24/2100Z 13.1N 73.8W 35 KT 40 MPH 12H 25/0600Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Cangialosi

Still there

4” here in the next 90 hours? Toss. Grateful for my .53” today. Basically doubles my MTD total.

Tropical Storm Cindy Discussion Number 8 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL042023 1100 PM AST Fri Jun 23 2023 After a lull in convective activity earlier today, deep convection associated with Cindy has increased tonight. A cold dense overcast with cloud top temperatures colder than -70C has expanded over the center of the cyclone, and a curved band of convection has developed over the northern portion of the circulation. Unfortunately, no recent microwave or scatterometer data are available to assess the structure and intensity of Cindy. The initial intensity of 45 kt is supported by objective UW-CIMSS ADT and SATCON estimates, and a T3.0 subjective Dvorak estimate from SAB. Cindy has a brief window to strengthen during the next 12 h or so. Then, deep-layer shear is forecast to increase over the storm by Sunday in association with an upper-level trough over the central Atlantic. This, along with potential bouts of dry air entrainment, should cause Cindy to weaken through early next week despite warm SSTs along its track. The latest NHC forecast shows Cindy reaching its peak intensity in 12-24 h, followed by gradual weakening thereafter. While most the global models agree that Cindy will open into a trough by the middle of next week, the 18 UTC GFS and HAFS runs show the cyclone remaining intact and deepening near and beyond the end of the forecast period. While this does not seem like the most likely outcome, it cannot be completely ruled out at this time. For now, the official NHC forecast continues to follow most of the non-GFS guidance and shows dissipation by day 5, but note that future forecast changes may be necessary. The tropical storm is moving west-northwestward at 295/13 kt. A general west-northwestward to northwestward motion is expected over the next few days as Cindy is steered by a subtropical ridge to its northeast. The track model spread increases early next week, with the stronger GFS showing a sharper recurvature and a track on the far right of the guidance envelope. The NHC track forecast is slightly to the right of the previous one, but still falls to the left of the multi-model consensus aids given the weaker NHC intensity forecast. Cindy is expected to remain well to the east and northeast of the northern Leeward Islands. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 24/0300Z 13.9N 50.4W 45 KT 50 MPH 12H 24/1200Z 15.2N 52.4W 50 KT 60 MPH 24H 25/0000Z 17.1N 54.9W 50 KT 60 MPH 36H 25/1200Z 19.1N 57.5W 45 KT 50 MPH 48H 26/0000Z 20.9N 59.6W 40 KT 45 MPH 60H 26/1200Z 22.5N 61.5W 40 KT 45 MPH 72H 27/0000Z 23.7N 62.9W 35 KT 40 MPH 96H 28/0000Z 25.6N 64.8W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 120H 29/0000Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Reinhart

After a big convective blast, Brett is…still trying to hang on. This is a pretty awesome IR loop.

Congratulations @Hazey on the GFS. Euro came around to something similar too. Cindy gets raised from the dead as it interacts with the next weekend trough.

Oh but wait, there's a nice convective flare-up over the LLC to give it a little more life for tonight... lol Going out with a bang