WxWatcher007

Congrats!

Yeah, it’s ugly for them verbatim. I don’t know much about the topography, but I imagine the surge would be bad. Hard to believe this is all still 8-9 days out on the guidance lol. Close, but Fiona was further east—center hit Cape Breton Island, was such a massive storm though I noted significant wind damage all the way into New Brunswick. We need ‘em though. Not getting a big dog north without one. It just so happens that 95% of them are kickers when there’s something tangible nearby.

Yep. Troughs galore this time of year. OTS is still squarely on the table, even as the potential for Atlantic Canada has increased.

Don’t worry @Hazey, we get these all the time. Just a breezy nor’easter from what I’ve been told.

You’re basically Louisiana now.

Apparently.

The shift in medium range guidance there was one of the most extreme shifts I’ve ever seen for tropical.

At this range I agree about Atlantic Canada, though plenty of time for shifts a la Franklin.

I don’t think it’s an ERC. I think it’s just the shear has undercut it some. It’s not a 5 anymore but certainly still a strong 4.

Well that’s social media. I’m talking about this thread. I get that people are imby here so if it’s not a category four over your head it’s meh and boring, but this is worthy of tracking with expectations in check. To be clear—I’m not saying that folks should only talk about the hit possibilities. I appreciate the analysis about the continued less than “ideal” troughing from some, or the need to move past 70W, or there being too many moving pieces to feel confident in any additional westward shift, but that’s what I want to see. Analysis.

Also, what’s with this chasing outlier ensembles narrative? Kev’s been doing his hype thing, but even he was at like 30% odds when sober. Weenies will weenie but it’s no different than any other season. To my knowledge nobody has seriously said this is a high likelihood thing.

My sister loved it. Basically after I moved her back into college they rocked.

More inches of rain in six weeks than inches of snow all winter.

This is absolutely incredible

Probably some epic wave action coming next week? Boring, I know.

Yeah it looks like it has peaked for now, but shear should drop this weekend so we’ll see if it’ll “recover”.

Excellent. Now that the board has figured out Lee maybe this thread can go quiet and we can go back to arguing over dews and whether it was a warm summer or not. Nothing else to do here.

Yup. Just look at the GFS trend the last two days. Speaking broadly, if the deterministic Euro is a western outlier and GFS eastern outlier, this is a pretty substantial Atlantic Canada threat at range. However, if you’re looking at the synoptics, that ridge is continuing to trend stronger across guidance in the longer range and the trough while still all over the place is looking less like a full blown kicker. I don’t really care about the imby stuff yet, but I think it’s also becoming clearer that while a turn 70W or later would obviously increase the NE threat, it’s not necessary for an impact, if the current ridge/trough trend continues. It might not, and we should be wary of the last minute east ticks, but for now this is what we got.

Another ratter en route

Recon approaching the center again for a NE to SW pass.

A number of interesting nuggets in that discussion.

Latest VDM Product: Air Force Vortex Message (URNT12 KNHC)Transmitted: 8th day of the month at 1:56ZAgency: United States Air ForceAircraft: Lockheed WC-130J Hercules with reg. number AF97-5306Storm Name: LeeStorm Number & Year: 13 in 2023 (flight in the North Atlantic basin)Mission Number: 2Observation Number: 12 ( See all messages of this type for this mission. )A. Time of Center Fix: 8th day of the month at 1:28:50ZB. Center Fix Coordinates: 17.12N 52.18WB. Center Fix Location: 568 statute miles (913 km) to the ENE (61°) from Bridgetown, Barbados.C. Minimum Height at Standard Level: 2,538m (8,327ft) at 700mbD. Minimum Sea Level Pressure: 930mb (27.47 inHg)E. Dropsonde Surface Wind at Center: From 355° at 20kts (From the N at 23mph)F. Eye Character: ClosedG. Eye Shape & Diameter: Circular with a diameter of 15 nautical miles (17 statute miles)H. Estimated (by SFMR or visually) Maximum Surface Wind Inbound: 143kts (164.6mph)I. Location & Time of the Estimated Maximum Surface Wind Inbound: 6 nautical miles to the N (5°) of center fix at 1:27:00ZJ. Maximum Flight Level Wind Inbound: From 48° at 145kts (From the NE at 166.9mph)K. Location & Time of the Maximum Flight Level Wind Inbound: 9 nautical miles to the NNW (343°) of center fix at 1:25:30ZL. Estimated (by SFMR or visually) Maximum Surface Wind Outbound: 123kts (141.5mph)M. Location & Time of the Estimated Maximum Surface Wind Outbound: 8 nautical miles to the SE (139°) of center fix at 1:31:00ZN. Maximum Flight Level Wind Outbound: From 252° at 124kts (From the WSW at 142.7mph)O. Location & Time of the Maximum Flight Level Wind Outbound: 8 nautical miles to the SE (139°) of center fix at 1:31:00ZP. Maximum Flight Level Temp & Pressure Altitude Outside Eye: 7°C (45°F) at a pressure alt. of 3,056m (10,026ft)Q. Maximum Flight Level Temp & Pressure Altitude Inside Eye: 27°C (81°F) at a pressure alt. of 3,024m (9,921ft)R. Dewpoint Temp (collected at same location as temp inside eye): 4°C (39°F)R. Sea Surface Temp (collected at same location as temp inside eye): Not AvailableS. Fix Determined By: Penetration, Radar, Wind, Pressure and TemperatureS. Fix Level: 700mbT. Navigational Fix Accuracy: 0.02 nautical milesT. Meteorological Accuracy: 1 nautical mileRemarks Section: Maximum Flight Level Wind: 148kts (~ 170.3mph) which was observed 9 nautical miles to the ENE (64°) from the flight level center at 23:38:00Z

The SFMR might be questionable though. We see this in these higher end storms at times and the NHC hedges lower. I think this is around 140kt right now.