WxWatcher007

The ERC looks done, and while it’s likely capping intensity, as expected we’re seeing a significant expansion of the wind field. This is before the turn north, and before ET transition.

It’s been a low key super wet few days. I’m just under 4.4” of rain in four days. Glad he’s ok

I don’t see 00z yet on TT?

Yeah. Though I melt and come back an hour later and it's the same conversation lol. I'll take this over being a Giants...and Jets fan.

I honest to God do not understand how people that have been posting around one another for years—in some cases literally coming of age on wx boards decades ago—feel the need to defend their dark desire or profess their most profound aversion to potentially destructive wx as if they’re posting the first time. Every. Single. Time. Anyone who spends time in this insane asylum knows where you stand, and your opinion does not sway anyone else one iota. If you’re scared of a tree falling on your house because some weenie in Moose Teet, New Hampshire is hoping for 1938, or scared that you’ll get struck down because you felt a tingle when a op run at 316 put a cane over your backyard, leave that s*** with God, not this or any other thread.

Lee had excellent starting latitude too relative to climo. Too much troughing prevented it from getting further west. I’m more skeptical of 97L but unlike Lee and Margot following Franklin and Idalia it *should* be the only game in town in the Atlantic.

More inches of rain since July than inches of snow here last “winter”. About 33% more

Funny thing is even with the rain I feel skunked. I’ve become a poor man’s TBlizz

Gets pushed NNE for a while. Berg saves the trees on his property that were never in danger while Halifax get inundated.

What an eye developing on Lee.

Because you get a better forecast utilizing all of the guidance. Hurricane models can be great at intensity and structural changes, but more prone to swings on track. Globals are often off on intensity but can be great with track. Spaghetti models can be solid, but I wouldn’t rely on them solely. When you read the NHC discussions, they’re looking at everything and accounting for the various model biases/outliers.

Margot now a hurricane. Not expected to become a major… WxWatcher007 Peak Season Forecast (Aug 20-Oct 20) Named Storms: 13 (9) Hurricanes: 6 (4) Major Hurricanes: 3 (3) Emily, Franklin (MH), Gert, Harold, Idalia (MH), Jose, Katia, Lee (MH), Margot (H)

That’s the only guarantee. The track is not locked. West or east. Also—it ain’t what it used to be. You hate to see it.

Agree

3.99” of rain the last four days. About to top 4 after this line moves through.

That’s at 850mb though. Looking at sim radar and 10m the wind field is large but weakening. A more westward heading though if that continued would probably get decent wind inland. Just not sure we get a deep westward bend.

Pretty good chance of AN ACE this season given where we are now.

I know. All in good fun.

You’re too much I’m sure Team Hit is hoping for you to meh this until the center passes just west of your house.

At least with tropical you always know you’re out. With winter everyone endures misses and misery, week after week after week.

We barely even get rain back here verbatim.

It’s not going to happen so I don’t think it matters as much now. The earlier turn is kind of baked into the models. Like @ORH_wxman said the other day, get this 100-150 miles west and it’s a lot more impactful/interesting. Not sure if that happens, though.