WxWatcher007

Obviously conditions were ideal 24 hours ago, but it’s clear from recon that shear absolutely rocked the inner core today. It may not even be a major hurricane right now. No guidance saw that coming. That said, this may take off again once the shear abates. I wonder what’ll happen to the wind field when it tries to reorganize.

Yeah, the second period of RI for Lee was one of the strongest observed in the basin.

Meh

Congrats!

Yeah, it’s ugly for them verbatim. I don’t know much about the topography, but I imagine the surge would be bad. Hard to believe this is all still 8-9 days out on the guidance lol. Close, but Fiona was further east—center hit Cape Breton Island, was such a massive storm though I noted significant wind damage all the way into New Brunswick. We need ‘em though. Not getting a big dog north without one. It just so happens that 95% of them are kickers when there’s something tangible nearby.

Yep. Troughs galore this time of year. OTS is still squarely on the table, even as the potential for Atlantic Canada has increased.

Don’t worry @Hazey, we get these all the time. Just a breezy nor’easter from what I’ve been told.

You’re basically Louisiana now.

Apparently.

The shift in medium range guidance there was one of the most extreme shifts I’ve ever seen for tropical.

At this range I agree about Atlantic Canada, though plenty of time for shifts a la Franklin.

I don’t think it’s an ERC. I think it’s just the shear has undercut it some. It’s not a 5 anymore but certainly still a strong 4.

Well that’s social media. I’m talking about this thread. I get that people are imby here so if it’s not a category four over your head it’s meh and boring, but this is worthy of tracking with expectations in check. To be clear—I’m not saying that folks should only talk about the hit possibilities. I appreciate the analysis about the continued less than “ideal” troughing from some, or the need to move past 70W, or there being too many moving pieces to feel confident in any additional westward shift, but that’s what I want to see. Analysis.

Also, what’s with this chasing outlier ensembles narrative? Kev’s been doing his hype thing, but even he was at like 30% odds when sober. Weenies will weenie but it’s no different than any other season. To my knowledge nobody has seriously said this is a high likelihood thing.

My sister loved it. Basically after I moved her back into college they rocked.

More inches of rain in six weeks than inches of snow all winter.

This is absolutely incredible

Probably some epic wave action coming next week? Boring, I know.

Yeah it looks like it has peaked for now, but shear should drop this weekend so we’ll see if it’ll “recover”.

Excellent. Now that the board has figured out Lee maybe this thread can go quiet and we can go back to arguing over dews and whether it was a warm summer or not. Nothing else to do here.

Yup. Just look at the GFS trend the last two days. Speaking broadly, if the deterministic Euro is a western outlier and GFS eastern outlier, this is a pretty substantial Atlantic Canada threat at range. However, if you’re looking at the synoptics, that ridge is continuing to trend stronger across guidance in the longer range and the trough while still all over the place is looking less like a full blown kicker. I don’t really care about the imby stuff yet, but I think it’s also becoming clearer that while a turn 70W or later would obviously increase the NE threat, it’s not necessary for an impact, if the current ridge/trough trend continues. It might not, and we should be wary of the last minute east ticks, but for now this is what we got.

Another ratter en route

Recon approaching the center again for a NE to SW pass.