WxWatcher007

940.1mb extrapolated

New burst of lightning in the eyewall as more convection fires

After holding steady most of the evening, the pressure here has dropped about 4mb in the last hour. Not very breezy. I'm in Perry, FL.

Just look at the deep ring of convection around the center. Very impressive.

Such an interesting appearance. Extrapolated pressure down to 941.5mb on that pass.

Where is recon? If there were ever a time for it..

Looks like the goalposts are narrowing with the GFS ticking east again.

This is the surreal part of the chase. All the planning, prep, forecasting, and execution of the plan comes down to this, in a place that may be permanently transformed by what is about to unfold. I hope everyone here prepared and evacuated if told to. The surge is looking catastrophic.

The hype would somehow be more extreme than the historic event itself

00z spaghetti models

Relocated to Perry. Now we wait…

Relocated to Perry. Hoping I won’t need to do anything else.

Latest VDM with interesting characterization of the eye Product: NOAA Vortex Message (URNT12 KWBC)Transmitted: 29th day of the month at 22:11ZAgency: National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA)Aircraft: Lockheed WP-3D Orion (Reg. Num. N43RF)Storm Name: IdaliaStorm Number & Year: 10 in 2023 (flight in the North Atlantic basin)Mission Number: 12Observation Number: 06 ( See all messages of this type for this mission. )A. Time of Center Fix: 29th day of the month at 21:44:51ZB. Center Fix Coordinates: 26.28N 84.74WB. Center Fix Location: 180 statute miles (290 km) to the W (262°) from Fort Myers, FL, USA.C. Minimum Height at Standard Level: Not AvailableD. Minimum Sea Level Pressure: 968mb (28.59 inHg)E. Dropsonde Surface Wind at Center: From 65° at 4kts (From the ENE at 5mph)F. Eye Character: RaggedG. Eye Shape: Concentric (has an inner and outer eye)G. Inner Eye Diameter: 12 nautical miles (14 statute miles)G. Outer Eye Diameter: 20 nautical miles (23 statute miles)H. Estimated (by SFMR or visually) Maximum Surface Wind Inbound: 84kts (96.7mph)I. Location & Time of the Estimated Maximum Surface Wind Inbound: 12 nautical miles (14 statute miles) to the E (99°) of center fix at 21:41:47ZJ. Maximum Flight Level Wind Inbound: From 181° at 103kts (From the S at 118.5mph)K. Location & Time of the Maximum Flight Level Wind Inbound: 15 nautical miles (17 statute miles) to the E (95°) of center fix at 21:40:55ZL. Estimated (by SFMR or visually) Maximum Surface Wind Outbound: 64kts (73.6mph)M. Location & Time of the Estimated Maximum Surface Wind Outbound: 6 nautical miles to the WSW (244°) of center fix at 21:46:18ZN. Maximum Flight Level Wind Outbound: From 313° at 64kts (From the NW at 73.6mph)O. Location & Time of the Maximum Flight Level Wind Outbound: 10 nautical miles (12 statute miles) to the WSW (242°) of center fix at 21:47:27ZP. Maximum Flight Level Temp & Pressure Altitude Outside Eye: 15°C (59°F) at a pressure alt. of 2,458m (8,064ft)Q. Maximum Flight Level Temp & Pressure Altitude Inside Eye: 23°C (73°F) at a pressure alt. of 2,460m (8,071ft)R. Dewpoint Temp (collected at same location as temp inside eye): 17°C (63°F)R. Sea Surface Temp (collected at same location as temp inside eye): Not AvailableS. Fix Determined By: Penetration, Radar, Wind and PressureS. Fix Level: Other - Not surface, 1500ft, 925mb, 850mb, 700mb, 500mb, 400mb, 300mb or 200mbT. Navigational Fix Accuracy: 0.01 nautical milesT. Meteorological Accuracy: 2 nautical milesRemarks Section: Maximum Flight Level Wind: 103kts (~ 118.5mph) which was observed 15 nautical miles (17 statute miles) to the E (95°) from the flight level center at 21:40:55Z

Yeah, was just about to post a correction. Thanks.

NE eyewall sampled. 964.6mb extrapolated. FL winds peaked at 103kt. Peak SFMR of 84kt.

Look at the distribution of RI odds, particularly relative to climo.

Note how the NHC track is still east of the model consensus...that is still ticking west. I think there's lower than normal confidence in where the center makes landfall.

Second recon plane moving into the NE quadrant. Not sure what's up with the first plane as it hasn't transmitted data in a while. Folks near Tallahassee need to take this seriously. The 18z spaghetti models shifted west again and the 18z GFS holds compared to 12z. Looking at the ensemble consensus, more changes are definitely possible and it's unusual for the NHC to note it in a discussion approximately 12-18 hours before a landfall.

Hurricane Idalia Discussion Number 13 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL102023 500 PM EDT Tue Aug 29 2023 The first stages of an eye have been taking shape in visible satellite imagery. The hurricane has a relatively small Central Dense Overcast and a prominent band of deep convection extending over the eastern semicircle, reaching across the Florida peninsula southward across western Cuba. An Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft just measured a peak 700-mb flight-level wind of 91 kt with the pressure falling to 972 mb. The initial intensity is therefore set at 85 kt. Idalia is moving faster toward the north, or 360/14 kt, between a mid-level trough over the northwestern Gulf of Mexico and a subtropical ridge over the Greater Antilles. Idalia is expected to continue moving northward and turn north-northeastward as it approaches the Big Bend region of Florida during the next 12-24 hours. There is very little spread among the track guidance, and the NHC official forecast has been placed very close to the HCCA and TVCX consensus aids during the first 24 hours. This has resulted in a westward shift of about 20-25 n mi compared to the previous forecast, although it should be stressed that additional shifts to the track will be possible until the center reaches land. After landfall, Idalia is expected to turn toward the northeast and then east, moving near or along the coast of Georgia and the Carolinas in 36-48 hours. Uncertainty in the track forecast is still quite large after 48 hours, with many of the global models turning Idalia southward, while some of the regional hurricane models still show the storm moving out to sea. As a result, the official track forecast continues to show slow motion on days 4 and 5. The 12-hour intensity forecast shows a 100-kt major hurricane. It is imperative to realize that Idalia is expected to continue strengthening beyond that time, possibly close to the 110 kt shown in the previous forecast, before the center reaches land. Weakening is expected after landfall, but due to the system's expected fast motion, it is possible that Idalia could maintain hurricane intensity as it moves across southern Georgia and approaches the coasts of Georgia and South Carolina. After Idalia's center moves offshore over the western Atlantic, strong shear is likely to limit re-intensification, and the official forecast essentially flatlines the intensity on days 2-5. KEY MESSAGES: 1. Catastrophic impacts from storm surge inundation of 10 to 15 feet above ground level and destructive waves are expected somewhere between Aucilla River and Yankeetown, Florida. Life-threatening storm surge inundation is likely elsewhere along portions of the Florida Gulf Coast where a Storm Surge Warning is in effect. Residents in these areas should follow any advice given by local officials. 2. There is the potential for destructive life-threatening winds where the core of Idalia moves onshore in the Big Bend region of Florida, with hurricane conditions expected elsewhere in portions of the Hurricane Warning area along the Florida Gulf Coast. Strong winds will also spread inland across portions of northern Florida and southern Georgia near the track of the center of Idalia where Hurricane Warnings are in effect. Residents in these areas should be prepared for long-duration power outages. Damaging hurricane-force winds are possible in portions of eastern Georgia and southeastern South Carolina where Hurricane Watches are in effect. 3. Areas of flash, urban, and moderate river flooding, with locally considerable impacts, are expected across the Florida Big Bend, central Georgia and South Carolina, through eastern North Carolina later tonight into Thursday. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 29/2100Z 26.1N 84.8W 85 KT 100 MPH 12H 30/0600Z 28.3N 84.5W 100 KT 115 MPH 24H 30/1800Z 31.0N 82.9W 75 KT 85 MPH...INLAND 36H 31/0600Z 32.9N 80.2W 50 KT 60 MPH...INLAND 48H 31/1800Z 33.9N 77.1W 45 KT 50 MPH...OVER WATER 60H 01/0600Z 33.8N 74.2W 45 KT 50 MPH 72H 01/1800Z 33.3N 71.8W 45 KT 50 MPH 96H 02/1800Z 32.3N 69.6W 45 KT 50 MPH 120H 03/1800Z 31.7N 69.0W 45 KT 50 MPH $$ Forecaster Berg

Welp 5:00 PM EDT Tue Aug 29Location: 26.1°N 84.8°WMoving: N at 16 mphMin pressure: 972 mbMax sustained: 100 mph CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: A Hurricane Watch has been issued from the mouth of the St. Mary's River northward to Edisto Beach. A Storm Surge Watch has been issued from Beaufort Inlet to Drum Inlet, North Carolina, as well as the Neuse and Pamlico Rivers. A Tropical Storm Warning has been issued from South Santee River northward to Surf City, North Carolina. A Tropical Storm Watch has been issued north of Surf City to the North Carolina/Virginia border, including Pamlico and Albemarle Sounds. The Hurricane Watch from Englewood to the Middle of Longboat Key has been discontinued. The Storm Surge Watch has been discontinued south of Bonita Beach, Florida.

Having an open eyewall stunts intensification, but it doesn't stop it of course. I'm interested in what recon finds in the other three quadrants. It's clearly intensifying based on that SE pass and IR. It could also be the case that the winds are trying to catch up to the pressure falls. NHC may up the winds at 5pm just like they did earlier on the assumption the NE quad will produce.