WxWatcher007

With guidance coalescing around the closest approach of Lee occurring in 5-6 days, it's time for a breakout thread. This all started with an extraordinarily strong signal for a long track major hurricane that produced, leading to the development of a CV system that attained category five intensity briefly before shear and internal processes (ERCs) weakened the system. Lee regained major hurricane status, but has likely peaked. We've been tracking this one seemingly forever, and it is now starting to slow its forward speed as it rounds the periphery of a ridge and gets drawn northward due to an incoming trough. Normally, a turn northward at this longitude would almost certainly have meant a recurve out to sea, but guidance has gradually trended toward a scenario where the original trough above lifts out quickly, allowing for an Atlantic ridge to build back in and effectively block a clear path out to sea. As that happens, another trough swings in from the Midwest, drawing it further north or potentially on a NW/NNW heading rather than kicking it OTS. Recent operational runs, which are further west than their ensembles, have brought a close approach to the Cape and potential landfall, if not already transitioned to an extratropical system, into Maine or Nova Scotia. Because Lee is expected to increase its wind field as it turns northward, and as it begins to undergo extratropical transition, even a close approach can be impactful, particularly for the Cape and eastern New England. There remains uncertainty on the exact track and the intensity of Lee when in closest proximity. For those following, I have been putting out odds for a while now on Lee's future track. This morning I'm at the following: 50% LF risk Atlantic Canada (Nova Scotia): It’s becoming increasingly likely that the second trough pulls this on an extended northward heading and Lee will not be able to fully escape, even if there is a last minute east trend. 35% New England (5% SNE/30% ENE): ENE remains much more favored because the ensembles even as they tick west have not meaningfully put SNE at landfall risk. A scrape of the Cape or hit in Maine would be most likely currently IMO. 15% OTS: Respect still needs to be given to sharper than anticipated eastward shifts, but this looks increasingly unlikely. Regardless of what Lee does, we already know how this thread will flow. Team Meh and Team Hit shall battle. Let the crescendo of the roller coaster ride begin.

Writing an OP for a Lee thread now.

Agree, though we’re only now starting to hone in on the final forecast, so we have to see what that ET transition looks like and how much strength this’ll maintain. The size of the storm may make it more impactful than it’d otherwise be.

That may just keep this from a second cat 4 peak and allow for the wind field to expand even more than it already has. Going to be a very large storm as it moves northward.

Roller coaster is a great way to put it. You literally know how the ride will go before hopping on, and despite how much it makes you want to scream or puke you can't get off until you run out of track. Weenie posts! Meh posts! Fear! Excitement! Morality debate! Dopamine drips or saline solution at every turn!

Gotta imagine some troughing would get that one, but here we are on the cusp of something with Lee.

That’s going to be hard to top any year. Would probably need a further west track and more ET transition to maintain some semblance of a core? Cape would be in for a lashing though.

Like I said. Team Meh & Team Hit.

It’s going to stay bottled up because a major cane is not coming.

2mb drop in last pass. 950mb now.

It looks like in addition to in storm observations a recon mission sampled the broader steering/shear environment. That may help in understanding when the turn north happens and at what speed. Lee continues to improve on IR with an expanded wind field per recon.

Probably mesovorticies

Sometimes you can’t help but laugh at what the models produce

Latest sonde in the N eyewall has this with 108kt winds. Might be close to being back at category four intensity.

That popped into my mind too. Far more expansive system here with ET transition possibly occurring.

Looking at the last four GEFS runs, the spread has narrowed quite a bit too with the bifurcation now.

Looks like there are still those two faster/east and slower/west camps.

Good luck, teams.

Not doing another long post right now but looking at the general trend in the steering pattern across guidance I update my odds to the following: —50% LF risk Atlantic Canada with the bulk of that risk in Nova Scotia. It’s becoming increasingly likely that the second trough pulls this on an extended northward heading. —30% New England (10% SNE/20% ENE) which is slightly more aggressive than the ensembles. —20% OTS because respect still needs to be given to eastward shifts or a sharper turn caused by the first trough. Either way, it’s looking increasingly likely a close call occurs even in this scenario for Atlantic Canada. If the general trend west/more impactful continues through the 12z suite tomorrow, then I believe this becomes something more legitimate.

It just looks “well-timed” to me verbatim on the run. I don’t see how that’s outside the realm of non-long shot possibility. Kinda funny to see the usual tropical fault line establishing itself. For Team Meh, this run isn’t a one off. There’s a three day general trend toward a closer approach across guidance and ensembles. Ensembles still lead by far, which are further east, but the ops become more interesting the closer in time we get. For Team Hit cheering me on now…this is still ~6/7 days out—an eternity in tropical tracking. A trend today can easily shift back tomorrow. And the ensembles still lead. Updating my odds, I think it’s a 50% LF risk for Atlantic Canada/30% New England (10% SNE/20% ENE)/20% OTS.

Euro has bounced around hundreds of miles between 00z yesterday, 12z yesterday, 00z this morning, and 12z this afternoon. I’d guess the EPS ticks a little west, but the op runs are zero confidence right now.

The New England delegation has a strong weenie presence, but remember, the Euro nailed Sandy.

Fixed. It’s always always bad

Yeah that was the best I could do. Following the mean line though you can see it go from Cape Breton Island to the SW tip of NS, or about 300 miles. Could easily tick back east, but that hasn’t been the trend lately.