WxWatcher007

Getting on the board again pre 15th would be excellent. Yeah, it looked good through 90.

Obviously an op that has been all over the place so its mostly posted in jest because I find it incredible that we've basically gone from punting December to the GFS showing multiple nuclear detonations over the region in the days before Christmas. The roller coaster is something else around here and I love it.

Really appreciate the work you put into those graphics.

Just awful

The 22nd/23rd would work on the GFS Megalopolis grid collapse just in time for Christmas.

Do you have HFD data?

I feel great. We’re in the game for real now. That gfs run was

PF frolicking by the picnic tables and Mitch burying bodies with a smile as Ray sets fire to his Christmas tree and Kev takes a baseball bat to his beloved truck in anger.

Pre-Christmas miracle coming on the GFS?

There would be some CT melts on that one lol

You hate to see it. I really hope Kev and a few guys further east got off in time.

Posting for comparison but still…big grain of salt

Hard to look at this with anything but a grain of salt, but interesting nonetheless. Now the 15th looks more mixed bag for much of the interior (CNE/NNE) on the op but obviously that’s an eternity away.

Another nod by the 00z suite. Nothing major at the surface verbatim, but get a sustained trend aloft of faster/closer development and we could be onto something that gets us on the board in a more meaningful way.

Yeah still probably low odds of anything exciting but I’ll take a lucky strike if I can get one pre Dec 15.

I’d say the Taunton Tandem would need 24 hour supervision, but they already punted December so no measurable in their backyards shouldn’t be surprising to them.

Six days into met winter and it feels like 47 years.

I hate it and love it at the same time. There’s no better drama than the weenie roller coaster.

One thing we can all agree on is you can ALWAYS bank on that.

I think the uncertainty is a little greater given the PAC and orientation of the block, but it’s not terribly substantive in my mind yet wrt the likely outcome—which is a broadly favorable wintry pattern post Dec 15. Could be wrong of course about that. If it’s getting pushed back in time the next few days that’d be a cause of concern for me. Even then, I don’t think I’d worry too much about eventually hitting in December. I do believe we will have greater than climo odds of a big dog the later we go given the block if there’s a relaxation in the Pacific.

I can’t speak for others, but I don’t think the goal posts have substantively changed, at least in terms of my expectations. A quick flip is always nice, but it was flagged weeks ago that there was a significant likelihood that a change in sensible weather for most would lag the upper level changes. Will has consistently talked about the pattern change occurring in stages. Obviously, we’d like to see op runs and ensembles aligned especially with regard to the PAC, but as @40/70 Benchmark and others have noted the overarching change is rooted in tropical forcing and is unlikely to totally flop. I will readily admit to having no proficiency in that kind of analysis but just looking at the 500mb evolution I think there’s a lot of consternation over the speed of the sensible wx change when there’s not a clear trend imho that has raised alarms that the post 15th period will be “bad”. I still think we’re moving in the right direction, with a potential window for a mixed bag (advisory) system between the 10-15th and higher end potential (warning level) after that.

Always pick the model with the least snow and hold onto it for dear life. Can’t be disappointed if you always expect the worst.

From far and wide, O Canada, we stand on guard for thee?