WxWatcher007

You see that and it looks so uncertain wrt the extent and orientation of that mid-latitude troughing. I do think the setup lends itself to 1) OTS 2) NC points north scrape/hit 3) Nova Scotia scrape/hit. I think a land impact is made much less likely given the higher chance that this doesn’t drive further west into the Bahamas before a turn, at least as currently modeled.

Yeah…let’s leave the morality debates and wishcasting elsewhere and focus on the meteorology here, please. On topic, those op runs that failed to do much with this a few days ago are a distant memory. It really does look like all elements are aligning for a significant hurricane, and for the folks in the Antilles this increases confidence that 95L gains latitude enough to clear the area.

Intensity guidance has this thing really taking off in just a couple days. Like I said in the tropical subforum OP, this is as good a signal for a long track major hurricane I've seen in a while.

I laughed when I typed that. That's not how we do business around here.

Hits are definitely outliers at this point, though I still caution everyone to stay away from locking anything in this far out, even as OTS remains favored currently. Looking at 95L this morning, it's continuing to organize. Certainly on track to become a TC by midweek despite some shear.

The annual up the Bay track

Dulles did me in

OTS still favored given the ensembles, perhaps even heavily, but it’s still too early to lock in any one solution—especially since we don’t have a well defined center yet. The op runs don’t mean anything right now, and color me skeptical on the ensembles being right in picking out the exact orientation, strength, and timing of troughing 7-10 days out. It’s really ok to be patient and watch things play out.

Absolutely. I’ll roll the dice on a pig ridge.

Speaking of the pattern, it’s intriguing. Give me a strong enough ridge to get this to the central, or better, northwest Bahamas, and I’ll take my chances with troughing.

That solution would require perfect timing, but everyone should be watching the strength of this Atlantic ridge. This is not a slam dunk OTS pattern IMO, even if that solution is still favored at this time, and if it’s a threat to the US I think it’s an EC threat rather than buzzsaw through Florida threat.

On a trip I took to GA to spend my birthday with family I abruptly told them I needed to go to Florida to chase Hurricane Elsa. I didn’t go to Buffalo for their epic blizzard was because it was the first Christmas after my dad passed.

It may very well remain no threat to land, but this is a very important reminder, visualized:

Not our area but big flooding around Vegas.

Fantastic day outside

It’d be hilarious if this struggled after my super bullish post In all seriousness though, I find it very hard to believe that easterly shear would overcome all the other favorable factors including peak climo to disrupt this invest to the point it’s weak across the entire basin, especially given how it looks currently on visible/IR. The overall environment looks excellent to me despite the early shear. Intensity also probably plays a role in track.

Yeah I think the steering pattern is a bit messy right now. We’ll see where things stand as this reaches the Antilles.

Yeah I started the thread on the invest on the main tropics page.

Gert came back from the dead, and Katia has formed. All eyes should be on 95L. Forecast has been excellent thus far. WxWatcher007 Peak Season Forecast (Aug 20-Oct 20) Named Storms: 13 (7) Hurricanes: 6 (2) Major Hurricanes: 3 (2) Emily, Franklin (MH), Gert, Harold, Idalia (MH), Jose, Katia

Totally agree. The troughing signal is going to be uncertain for at least another 7-10 days IMO. Get it to the Antilles and we'll see what things look like. Get it to the Bahamas and all bets are off. OTS favored until there's a strong EC signal. This one is a big dog whether it impacts land or goes OTS. CV major of yore.

Just updated the OP with an analysis

The NHC has designated our AOI in the eastern Atlantic as Invest 95L. It already has a good look to it, with significant spin and some disorganized convection. Normally, I am more muted when we're at the invest stage, but not this time. I believe this is the strongest signal we've seen for a long track CV major hurricane in quite some time. Why? The environment ahead looks tremendous not just for tropical genesis but significant intensification in the MDR. First, it's the moisture. Unlike early August, where SAL and subsidence dominated the MDR, we have a more moist and unstable environment thanks to the presence of much stronger preceeding waves scouring out the SAL. Look at the dramatic rise in instability in the MDR since August. It's more than enough, as we've seen. Obviously the thermodynamic environment is excellent. We have strong SSTs and OHC through the MDR and basin. With a strong ridge building in over the Atlantic, wind shear should initially be low. That alone is enough for TC genesis. There is a long runway of low shear in the MDR. (Edit: there are low trades initially, which means easterly shear, but I don’t think this will disrupt progression much after a few days) However, what sets this apart from other setups, especially in recent years, is that it looks like the orientation of the steering pattern is going to create ideal conditions for ventilation. From Eric Webb Folks, that's big time. All systems seem poised to allow for TC genesis, followed by an increasing level of organization and eventually, intensification. It's reflected on the guidance consistently. Each operational model has a strong system nearing the Antilles. With a strong ridge over the Atlantic, the Antilles have to watch very closely, including Puerto Rico. Once this gets to the Antilles, as you can see above there is a lot of guidance that tries to round this around the ridge. All bets are off then, as we turn our attention toward the East Coast steering pattern relative to the Atlantic ridge. Climo always favors OTS at this stage, but given the presence of strong ridging showing up on the guidance, this may be one that we're watching for a while, especially as guidance tends to underplay the strength of ridging. This is also where we need to watch the orientation of troughing in the eastern US, but that'll be at least 7-10 days away. At the very least, this is likely to be a threat to the Antilles and a significant ACE producer. In my estimation, 95L has the best chance to be the strongest TC in the basin this season.