WxWatcher007

Latest VDM Product: Air Force Vortex Message (URNT12 KNHC)Transmitted: 3rd day of the month at 15:58ZAgency: United States Air ForceAircraft: Lockheed WC-130J Hercules with reg. number AF97-5306Storm Name: BerylStorm Number & Year: 02 in 2024 (flight in the North Atlantic basin)Mission Number: 14Observation Number: 29 ( See all messages of this type for this mission. )A. Time of Center Fix: 3rd day of the month at 15:12:40ZB. Center Fix Coordinates: 17.03N 76.10WB. Center Fix Location: 83 statute miles (133 km) to the SE (146°) from Kingston, Jamaica.C. Minimum Height at Standard Level: 2,752m (9,029ft) at 700mbD. Minimum Sea Level Pressure: 956mb (28.23 inHg)E. Dropsonde Surface Wind at Center: From 115° at 8kts (From the ESE at 9mph)F. Eye Character: Open in the southwestG. Eye Shape & Diameter: Circular with a diameter of 20 nautical miles (23 statute miles)H. Estimated (by SFMR or visually) Maximum Surface Wind Inbound: 107kts (123.1mph)I. Location & Time of the Estimated Maximum Surface Wind Inbound: 8 nautical miles to the W (271°) of center fix at 15:10:00ZJ. Maximum Flight Level Wind Inbound: From 27° at 102kts (From the NNE at 117.4mph)K. Location & Time of the Maximum Flight Level Wind Inbound: 12 nautical miles (14 statute miles) to the WNW (283°) of center fix at 15:09:00ZL. Estimated (by SFMR or visually) Maximum Surface Wind Outbound: 100kts (115.1mph)M. Location & Time of the Estimated Maximum Surface Wind Outbound: 7 nautical miles to the ESE (119°) of center fix at 15:15:00ZN. Maximum Flight Level Wind Outbound: From 206° at 106kts (From the SSW at 122.0mph)O. Location & Time of the Maximum Flight Level Wind Outbound: 10 nautical miles (12 statute miles) to the ESE/SE (124°) of center fix at 15:16:00ZP. Maximum Flight Level Temp & Pressure Altitude Outside Eye: 9°C (48°F) at a pressure alt. of 3,043m (9,984ft)Q. Maximum Flight Level Temp & Pressure Altitude Inside Eye: 18°C (64°F) at a pressure alt. of 3,050m (10,007ft)R. Dewpoint Temp (collected at same location as temp inside eye): 10°C (50°F)R. Sea Surface Temp (collected at same location as temp inside eye): Not AvailableS. Fix Determined By: Penetration, Radar, Wind, Pressure and TemperatureS. Fix Level: 700mbT. Navigational Fix Accuracy: 0.02 nautical milesT. Meteorological Accuracy: 1 nautical mileRemarks Section: Maximum Flight Level Wind: 130kts (~ 149.6mph) which was observed 12 nautical miles (14 statute miles) to the NE (45°) from the flight level center at 13:52:00Z

Still disorganized, but this is the best 96L has looked in days.

http://tropic.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic.php From there you can look at a ton of resources in each basin and at the invest/storm level.

Signs of life is a good descriptor If it can stay behind the ribbons of drier air and shear it could very well have a shot later on. As you know, sometimes these seedlings are robust enough structurally that they just need a little runway to take off. I thought it had that in the central Atlantic but it didn’t work out.

It looked like it briefly but recovered fast. The microwave images I posted in the other thread were incredible.

http://arctic.som.ou.edu/tburg/products/realtime/tropical/

It’s fascinating, but probably shouldn’t be surprising, that Beryl is coming off its peak slowly. I think the prior ERC helped it become a lot more inertially stable than it would’ve been with a smaller core. The resilience is just a sight to behold. Look at these microwave passes and note how quickly the core rebounds after earlier degradation.

I agree. FL winds are still big time.

All of those really high SFMR look rain contaminated to me. Even the unflagged 158kt wind comes with a rain rate of 2.12”/hr.

Like tennis volleys these models

18z spaghetti models shifted back south, reiterating just how tricky this Gulf forecast is going to be.

Texas is definitely still on the table. There is very high uncertainty on the models for 5 days out.

It should weaken, but it won’t be anywhere close to what happened to Chris.

12z Hurricane models (HWRF, HMON, HAFS A & B) have adjusted a bit stronger with the close approach to Jamaica tomorrow. Somewhat more mixed signal for the Yucatan.

I think the changes broadly on the guidance in the last 24 hours are significant, but the run to run variations should give everyone pause on future intensity and track. This is still a lot of spread for the Gulf.

These are significant shifts on the guidance in track and intensity

12z GFS is more robust, with a blunted level of weakening before Jamaica impacts and the Yucatán, and much more intensification relative to 06z in the Gulf before landfall Sunday. North trend continues.

Reupping my favorite (tropical) decapitation of all time.

Today. Jamaica is in the path of a possible direct hit tomorrow.

12z

Can’t see much, but it’s there…

What a nuke

Posted in the wrong thread lol but here’s my morning analysis.

Regardless of the peak, Beryl is on borrowed time as a category five hurricane. There’s unanimous agreement that it begins to run into a ribbon of shear later today that will start to erode its vertical alignment and open it to intrusions of dry air. The question is the degree of weakening, which is critical for Jamaica in particular, which may receive a direct hit. Here are the four most reliable intensity models tomorrow at 15z as Beryl approaches. After Jamaica, there is substantial uncertainty that only grows over time over the fate of Beryl. The models all continue to weaken Beryl as it enters the western Caribbean. The track has trended north, and into the Yucatán late week. From there, it gets really tricky. Is Beryl weak enough to die over this region? Is it stronger than anticipated after Jamaica, leading to a reduced bend westward? How does the troughing in the Midwest influence a weakness that would trigger a more northwestward bend in the Gulf? What does the environment for reorganization and intensification look like in the Gulf? All unanswered questions at this time. As it heads into the Gulf, there’s tremendous spread. Be wary of the specific model means, as the western/southern solutions kind of lead to an unrepresentative mean in the later stages of the runs. However, there has been a clear trend north imo in the last 24 hours which means folks in Texas need to watch closely as well. Note how the Euro has two camps: one that follows the 00z operational and keeps Beryl weak and south, and another the more closely follows the hurricane models above. The “super ensemble” is still favored south into Mexico, but it’s north compared to yesterday. Basically—there’s still a lot of spread here both in intensity and track. Folks in the Yucatán and western Gulf need to keep watching this one. Finally, this is made very clear by these two runs of the Euro! 00z and new 06z sees substantial flip flopping continue over the intensity of Beryl as it approaches the Yucatán. Long way to go with this one.