WxWatcher007

First VDM--eyewall open in the NW Product: Air Force Vortex Message (URNT12 KNHC)Transmitted: 29th day of the month at 20:26ZAgency: United States Air ForceAircraft: Lockheed WC-130J Hercules with reg. number AF97-5304Storm Name: IdaliaStorm Number & Year: 10 in 2023 (flight in the North Atlantic basin)Mission Number: 11Observation Number: 04 ( See all messages of this type for this mission. )A. Time of Center Fix: 29th day of the month at 20:21:40ZB. Center Fix Coordinates: 25.91N 84.82WB. Center Fix Location: 190 statute miles (306 km) to the WSW (255°) from Fort Myers, FL, USA.C. Minimum Height at Standard Level: 2,879m (9,446ft) at 700mbD. Minimum Sea Level Pressure: 972mb (28.71 inHg)E. Dropsonde Surface Wind at Center: From 205° at 5kts (From the SSW at 6mph)F. Eye Character: Open in the northwestG. Eye Shape & Diameter: Circular with a diameter of 25 nautical miles (29 statute miles)H. Estimated (by SFMR or visually) Maximum Surface Wind Inbound: 63kts (72.5mph)I. Location & Time of the Estimated Maximum Surface Wind Inbound: 5 nautical miles to the NW (312°) of center fix at 20:20:00ZJ. Maximum Flight Level Wind Inbound: From 34° at 53kts (From between the NNE and NE at 61.0mph)K. Location & Time of the Maximum Flight Level Wind Inbound: 5 nautical miles to the NW (312°) of center fix at 20:20:00ZL. Estimated (by SFMR or visually) Maximum Surface Wind Outbound: 69kts (79.4mph)M. Location & Time of the Estimated Maximum Surface Wind Outbound: 14 nautical miles (16 statute miles) to the SE (136°) of center fix at 20:25:30ZN. Maximum Flight Level Wind Outbound: From 237° at 91kts (From the WSW at 104.7mph)O. Location & Time of the Maximum Flight Level Wind Outbound: 18 nautical miles (21 statute miles) to the SE (135°) of center fix at 20:26:30ZP. Maximum Flight Level Temp & Pressure Altitude Outside Eye: 14°C (57°F) at a pressure alt. of 3,067m (10,062ft)Q. Maximum Flight Level Temp & Pressure Altitude Inside Eye: 15°C (59°F) at a pressure alt. of 3,068m (10,066ft)R. Dewpoint Temp (collected at same location as temp inside eye): 14°C (57°F)R. Sea Surface Temp (collected at same location as temp inside eye): Not AvailableS. Fix Determined By: Penetration, Radar, Wind, Pressure and TemperatureS. Fix Levels (surface & flight level centers within 5nm of each other): Surface and 700mbT. Navigational Fix Accuracy: 0.02 nautical milesT. Meteorological Accuracy: 1 nautical mileRemarks Section: Maximum Flight Level Wind: 91kts (~ 104.7mph) which was observed 18 nautical miles (21 statute miles) to the SE (135°) from the flight level center at 20:26:30Z

Continuing the pass into the SE eyewall, recon found FL winds between 84-91kts. That’s legit.

Dropsonde was 972mb with 5kt wind

970.5mb extrapolated pressure. FL and SFMR not impressive with peak of 53kt at FL and 63kt SFMR. First pass though.

Ok, confusion cleared up. Recon IS in the air and is starting to fly toward the center in a likely NW to SE pass.

First contact

First storm rolled through.

I thought we were friends?

Ridge looks a touch stronger too, at least compared to yesterday’s 12z Euro Signal looks legit for an Apalachee Bay special.

Definitely further inland and away from any surge threat. Thinking I may be headed northwest given the continued model shifts.

Wagons west it looks like.

There will def be jogs west and east as this rapidly intensifies. Just try to pay attention to the long term trend.

Thanks—I was looking for the hurricane models: HWRF, HAFS A, HAFS B they come out a little later.

Steinhatchee is also a surge/evac zone. No bueno. I only chase for wind. I try to get as close as I can without being in surge risk.

Yeah not much. It was a dark ride into Chiefland last night. Other problem with those places is idk if I’d trust the roof/structure to hold during a major strike. That’s a big part of my planning. I saw one motel and it was barely holding together lol.

12z is out on Tropical Tidbits? I don’t see it yet.

I actually had a place in Perry but hedged east and gave it back yesterday. Problem is that a landfall at Steinhatchee would be roughly the same distance from here as it would be from Perry. And of course, guidance continues looking even further west. Its just one of those things that’ll require me to keep watching the trend today with storm motion. I need to see when this NNE turn happens. It’ll be close.

12z too now

The main thread can get messy so quickly

That’d be in line with the hurricane models that show takeoff this afternoon.

Thoughts on LF location? I feel like I can’t rule out a direct hit in the Bay south of Tallahassee, but could easily see a last minute east trend.

Thanks. Really rural out here so not a ton of options. Really tough center forecast when a few miles makes a huge difference. Watching that west trend among the hurricane models too.

Rotating upshear too. If it can solidify the eyewall the intensification pace should pick up substantially.