WxWatcher007

Love these, thanks for sharing. 100%. The euro run verbatim doesn’t get it done D10+ IMO. I’d tell folks to pace themselves but we just went through an entire winter breathlessly chasing D10 ghosts. A D10 cane is the holy grail and the train has left the weenie station.

Not exact times but posting for the purpose of a crude comparison. The last three euro runs at 240. We’ll see what the ensembles do.

First time according to the talking heads on Twitter

We do, but I trust ridging a hell of a lot more than trying to get a trough, and we pretty much need a trough. If you want interesting, you want more changes on the euro at 12z.

Even if the trough were perfectly oriented and perfectly timed I wouldn’t believe it at this range.

Severe weather.

120kts and below the guidance consensus This is going to be a monster.

Did a long post in the main thread. Keep expectations in check. I was intrigued this morning to see the subtle shifts on the Euro, even if the end result verbatim is still OTS.

Did a long post in the main thread.

Let's take a look at 95L, which will almost certainly be Tropical Storm Lee by the end of the day. The theme of this post will be managing expectations... As @Windspeed's post showed, we started to see 95L really take a leap forward last night, and this morning it's basically a TC and the NHC is likely to start issuing advisories at 11am. That's about as good as you're going to get for a tropical wave in the MDR, a stark contrast from a lot of the slop and slow developing waves we've seen in recent years. A wider view shows just how far away this one is, and provides some clues to the landscape ahead. The first thing I notice here is concentrated convection around 95L. While there is drier air around, there's a solid pocket of moisture that's developing around the system. In addition, and this is important, there's very little shear. An upper level low to the north is too far north to inhibit development, and will probably do the opposite as an outflow channel gets established further west and an upper level anticyclone develops overhead. Intensity guidance is high end as a result. Some may look at this and say "Oh boy, a 5 is coming!". Not so fast my friend. This is almost certainly our next major hurricane, and I'd go as far as saying this is our next category four hurricane, our third of many thought in early August would be a quiet season. Once you get to these high end thresholds however, you have to watch for structural changes such as ERCs that could cap intensity. For intensity, the expectation should be a high end hurricane, but while it is possible, expecting a 5 is asking too much IMO. Now to why I'm actually writing this post. The forecast track If we're being honest with one another, everyone has their rooting interest. Whether you want a land threat, eye candy that stays out to sea, or just to be right with whatever it is you've already posted, we all see posts with bias. That's not necessarily a bad thing if you know how to sort through it. I'd hope that after all these years most of you see me as an objective poster with regard to tropical, but I'm often working to check my bias too. Taking a step back, I think it's essential for everyone to remember how far out this system still is from having a well defined track evolution in the long range. I'm sure there are some reading that line and saying "well, that's what weenies always say". I agree. But I urge everyone to look past prior storms and analyze this current setup. Step I--WNW Movement Around Atlantic Ridge (High Confidence in 0-5 Days) The current phase we're in is high confidence on the guidance and it makes sense in analyzing the steering environment. 95L is a relatively low rider currently, but as it moves westward it will intensify rapidly and will begin to gain latitude. This is a saving grace for the Antilles, as it should allow future Lee to travel WNW around an Atlantic ridge. Even accounting for the lack of an established low level center, this one should pass to the north of the Antilles. I am posting the op runs from 00z for comparison purposes because they are similar 5 days out. Step II--Turn Northward (Moderate Confidence in 6-9 Days) I think there's high confidence that a turn occurs, but when and how sharp are open questions. On both the GFS and Euro, and by extension their ensembles, it's easy to see why a turn happens and why a turn itself is high confidence. There's troughing in the E CONUS that provides a pathway for a northward turn. How far west future Lee can get before a turn may be very important to New England and especially Atlantic Canada. Once again, looking at the 00z operational GFS and Euro, you see the evolution. This first trough you see very early in the period allows for the turn, followed by a second and critical piece of troughing later in the 6-9 day period. I'm inclined to trust the ensembles that show a turn between 65-70W, but this is something that is of lower confidence than the turn itself. This is where interests in Bermuda must watch closely. The degrees may matter if the next step gets tricky. Part III--The Final Turn (Low Confidence in 10+ Day Period) This stage is the whole reason why I think it's far too early to lock in any land or OTS solutions. This is where you consider the probabilities rather than deterministic solutions. Recall the D6-9 GFS and Euro runs. The first trough is only enough to turn 95L north. It's not enough as currently modeled to sweep 95L out to sea as the models are trying to show a ridge attempting to build over the Maritimes/Atlantic. That means that a second trough is required for a kick. The problem is, while a Midwest trough is looking like it will try to dive in quickly after the first, it's unclear whether we see a positively tilted trough where the westerlies effectively kick 95L to the northeast and OTS, or a cutoff low that would effectively capture future Lee and pull it 1) northward into Atlantic Canada, or 2) northwestward into New England. Here are the ensembles at D10. This is a trend gif, showing the various solutions over the past two days at 240. Look at the ridging and troughing. The EPS has shown deeper eastern US troughing in recent runs with more ridging over the north Atlantic while the GEFS are kind of all over the place. Verbatim, it still may not be enough for a bona fide land threat outside of Bermuda, but there's enough uncertainty in the long range to pay attention along New England and Canadian Maritimes. Again, it's about keeping expectations in check. Long range consensus does not necessarily imply accuracy. We are going to need time to figure out what the steering pattern looks like after that northward turn occurs. A trend toward the coast can easily reverse at this range, and so can the current OTS solutions. If I were placing odds at this moment on what would happen it'd be the following: 65% OTS--because it is extremely hard to trust a cutoff low being positioned and timed "perfectly" as 95L turns north to create a land threat. 20% Atlantic Canada Threat--because an extended northward track with a slight bend (a la Fiona) is more likely with any kind of cutoff or negatively tilted trough. 15% New England Threat--because the turn north is more likely to happen east of the region and a threat would require the aforementioned positioning and timing to be precise for what'd likely be some type of extended NNW to NW heading. These numbers will change, but the overall message in this very long analysis is that while we have higher confidence in the 0-5 and perhaps even higher confidence in some aspects of the 6-9 day period, there is a lot that needs to be sorted out given the steering pattern potential beyond ~day 8.

It’s subtle and verbatim probably leads to the same outcome, but the 00z Euro opens the door to more Atlantic ridging and a somewhat different E US troughing setup, allowing for a more northward rather than NE turn through 240. Again, this is all so far out it’s hard to get a strong read on anything.

High of 88.9°

The high is important, but to @FXWX’s point, the door doesn’t really open without a GL negative or cutoff trough. That’s the key. A far less likely way would be to eliminate the troughing and get two ridges—one over the CONUS and a big WAR and steer future Lee around the periphery of the WAR. Seems unlikely though.

Aside from the track conversation, just look at this presentation. I know some of you don’t care unless it’s pushing cat 5 or threatening your backyard, but this is poised to be a beast.

That shallow convection was the first thing I noticed on IR. It’s definitely exhibiting a strong presentation for a wave. Won’t be long until this is a TC…and absolutely taking off.

Troughing galore still on the Euro—just a giant broom sweeping this out. Earlier caveats on operational models remain.

Central Tropical Atlantic (AL95): Satellite imagery indicates that an area of low pressure has formed from the tropical wave centered about 700 miles west-southwest of the Cabo Verde Islands. The low-level circulation has become better defined since yesterday, with increasing organization in the shower and thunderstorm activity. Environmental conditions are forecast to be conducive for further development, and this system is expected to become a tropical depression or a tropical storm in a day or two. Additional strengthening is likely late this week while the system moves westward to west-northwestward at 15 to 20 mph over the central and western portions of the tropical Atlantic. For additional information on this system, including gale warnings, see High Seas Forecasts issued by the National Weather Service. * Formation chance through 48 hours...high...90 percent. * Formation chance through 7 days...high...near 100 percent.

The GFS has been horrific recently in the tropics. Euro not much better. Until we start seeing ticks on the ensembles the operationals should be taken with a bucket of salt. This is still 10 days out with steering pattern focus at least 5 days out.

Also, it’s still ten days out at least! A long way to go with this one, where you’d hope we have a better sense of the troughing and ridge in about 5 days.

You see that and it looks so uncertain wrt the extent and orientation of that mid-latitude troughing. I do think the setup lends itself to 1) OTS 2) NC points north scrape/hit 3) Nova Scotia scrape/hit. I think a land impact is made much less likely given the higher chance that this doesn’t drive further west into the Bahamas before a turn, at least as currently modeled.

Yeah…let’s leave the morality debates and wishcasting elsewhere and focus on the meteorology here, please. On topic, those op runs that failed to do much with this a few days ago are a distant memory. It really does look like all elements are aligning for a significant hurricane, and for the folks in the Antilles this increases confidence that 95L gains latitude enough to clear the area.

Intensity guidance has this thing really taking off in just a couple days. Like I said in the tropical subforum OP, this is as good a signal for a long track major hurricane I've seen in a while.

I laughed when I typed that. That's not how we do business around here.