WxWatcher007

Thanks. We have a VDM too now from recon. Despite the SFMR, like @wxmx said earlier the FL winds weren’t quite there yet. Wouldn’t take much to get a name though. Product: Air Force Vortex Message (URNT12 KNHC)Transmitted: 30th day of the month at 19:09ZAgency: United States Air ForceAircraft: Lockheed WC-130J Hercules with reg. number AF98-5308Mission Purpose: Investigate fourth suspect area (flight in the North Atlantic basin)Mission Number: 1Observation Number: 08 ( See all messages of this type for this mission. )A. Time of Center Fix: 30th day of the month at 18:14:00ZB. Center Fix Coordinates: 19.59N 95.39WB. Center Fix Location: 195 statute miles (313 km) to the NW (305°) from Villahermosa, Tabasco, Mexico.C. Minimum Height at Standard Level: Not AvailableD. Minimum Sea Level Pressure: 1007mb (29.74 inHg) - ExtrapolatedE. Dropsonde Surface Wind at Center (Undecoded): NAF. Eye Character: Not AvailableG. Eye Shape: Not AvailableH. Estimated (by SFMR or visually) Maximum Surface Wind Inbound: 47kts (54.1mph)I. Location & Time of the Estimated Maximum Surface Wind Inbound: 1 nautical miles to the W (274°) of center fix at 18:13:30ZJ. Maximum Flight Level Wind Inbound: From 290° at 25kts (From the WNW at 28.8mph)K. Location & Time of the Maximum Flight Level Wind Inbound: 26 nautical miles (30 statute miles) to the WNW/NW (304°) of center fix at 18:05:00ZL. Estimated (by SFMR or visually) Maximum Surface Wind Outbound: 32kts (36.8mph)M. Location & Time of the Estimated Maximum Surface Wind Outbound: 7 nautical miles to the E (95°) of center fix at 18:16:00ZN. Maximum Flight Level Wind Outbound: From 180° at 25kts (From the S at 28.8mph)O. Location & Time of the Maximum Flight Level Wind Outbound: 42 nautical miles (48 statute miles) to the ESE/SE (124°) of center fix at 18:31:00ZP. Maximum Flight Level Temp & Pressure Altitude Outside Eye: 21°C (70°F) at a pressure alt. of 372m (1,220ft)Q. Maximum Flight Level Temp & Pressure Altitude Inside Eye: 21°C (70°F) at a pressure alt. of 336m (1,102ft)R. Dewpoint Temp (collected at same location as temp inside eye): 21°C (70°F)R. Sea Surface Temp (collected at same location as temp inside eye): Not AvailableS. Fix Determined By: Penetration, Wind and PressureS. Fix Level: 1,500 feetT. Navigational Fix Accuracy: 0.02 nautical milesT. Meteorological Accuracy: 2 nautical milesRemarks Section: Maximum Flight Level Wind: 25kts (~ 28.8mph) which was observed 26 nautical miles (30 statute miles) to the WNW/NW (304°) from the flight level center at 18:05:00Z Sea Level Pressure Extrapolation From: Below 1500 feet Maximum Flight Level Temp: 24°C (75°F) which was observed 20 nautical miles (23 statute miles) to the NW (309°) from the flight level center

Summer of floods the sequel

We went from drier than normal June to AN in about a week lol.

All I had to do was leave the state. Absolute depraved heart ruthlessness

That’s a good catch. FL winds are not as impressive.

Recon finding some TS force SFMR here. It could get a name if sufficiently organized.

I am never going to get over missing a banner week for severe imby

Island roulette is tricky business though. Any wobble especially on a smaller storm like this and you’re flying out for TS winds.

Location, location, location Beryl and 96L were given a tremendous runway by virtue of coming off Africa pretty far south and being embedded in the monsoon trough. Even a few degrees further north and it’s a much different story. Makes this all the more extraordinary. https://tropic.ssec.wisc.edu/real-time/sal/g16split/movies/goes16split.html

I never had a chance. Going to miss another event in Albany.

Very early. Might make later less robust.

Probably the most impactful strike since 2004?

This is robust to say the least

Umm, let’s just talk weather, please. Extrapolated pressure down to 963.3mb. Awaiting center dropsonde.

Keep in mind that’s an extrapolated pressure per the VDM. That said, it’s probably dropping like a rock still.

Yeah I’m fine with it either way. After the last week I think folks around here know to take these kind of days seriously—at least you’d think.

Meanwhile the SPC keeps talking about supercells in Maine lol

Enhanced on the latest SPC update.

I’d bet the opposite. I’m thinking there’s at least 1 EC threat and a fair amount of remnant activity. I guess we’ll see. Beryl continues to be in rarified territory becoming the first major hurricane of the 2024 season.

Per dropsonde, the central pressure is down ~1mb since the VDM.

The OG of invests in an extremely active late June basin is worthy of a thread too, though there may not be as much post activity here. A broad area of low pressure has traversed the Yucatán and has now entered the Bay of Campeche. This is the third invest to reach the BoC and threaten the Mexican Gulf coast. There’s not a lot of time for this to organize into a significant wind producer, but once again heavy rains are expected. Recon is scheduled to investigate later today. 1. Southwestern Gulf of Mexico (AL94): An area of low pressure located over the southern portion of the Bay of Campeche is producing disorganized showers and thunderstorms. Environmental conditions appear conducive for further development, and a short-lived tropical depression could form before the system moves inland over Mexico on Monday morning. Interests along the Gulf Coast of Mexico should monitor the progress of this system. Regardless of development, heavy rainfall associated with the area of low pressure will continue to affect portions of Central America and Mexico through early next week. An Air Force reconnaissance aircraft is scheduled to investigate the system later today. * Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...50 percent. * Formation chance through 7 days...medium...50 percent.