WxWatcher007

The long tracker is coming.

My video from the storm. Damage survey video tomorrow.

Here’s my Idalia video. Damage survey video tomorrow.

Jose could become a hurricane lol WxWatcher007 Peak Season Forecast (Aug 20-Oct 20) Named Storms: 13 (6) Hurricanes: 6 (2) Major Hurricanes: 3 (2) Emily, Franklin (MH), Gert, Harold, Idalia (MH), Jose

Here’s my video from Idalia. Crazy seeing so much debris in the air. Enjoy. I’ll do my damage survey video tomorrow.

Yes, I think so, just keep in mind that troughs can easily modify in future runs. The orientation and depth matters a lot—like we saw with Franklin.

Christmas is four months away.

Right. I’m not tracking this seriously. I need a few days to recover from Florida. Maybe we go from joke to “threat” by then

This would be pretty funny. Cat 1 or bust for sloppy seconds lol.

At least we’ll be able to see the clouds spiraling in the sky as the naked swirl passes over New England.

I actually think we’re ripe in that department. Look at the OHC too. It’s enough. A climo track implies a fast mover hugging the coast and the Gulf Stream so I think the real issue is not having a kicker trough. They’re lurking even when we don’t think they are. If we were developing an ideal sloppy seconds Idalia track, it would get trapped under the ridge and pushed westward back toward the Carolinas until a trough picks it up. Aside from that, real chances would come from homebrew in the western Caribbean or Bahamas.

A track from the east ain’t it if we want legit tropical. Either the euro has to haul it west before cooler waters or it’ll need to get suppressed to our south and slung NW. This is really just weenie hoping and praying and tracking, which is fine, but hopefully expectations are where they should be right now. Zero

I won’t lie I’ll look casually but there are no expectations. The basin is going to provide plenty of other red meat the next two weeks.

Well the ensemble guidance is split and the hurricane track models to loop it. It probably is a shell of itself if it happens before a trough kicks it.

Yeah, I was out of the loop

Exactly.

It looks like there’s a strong TC genesis signal suggesting long track potential in the MDR, but honestly, given how the models have struggled so much with the steering pattern for Franklin and now with Idalia’s long term track I don’t put a lot of stock in having any sense of steering for maybe another week.

Haven’t looked much, but I’m not sure what to make of the model confusion over Idalia’s long term track yet.

The thing I’m proudest of honestly is the pattern recognition. I first highlighted on August 16 that the highest potential of all the potential areas of activity was with the CAG. On August 18 I first said I thought something would develop with a land threat the last week of August. The first advisory came on August 26. Not being a met, it’s a source of pride to be a competent tropical watcher/forecaster. Now to the point where I can effectively chase.

WxWatcher007 Peak Season Forecast (Aug 20-Oct 20) Named Storms: 13 (5) Hurricanes: 6 (2) Major Hurricanes: 3 (2) Emily, Franklin (MH), Gert, Harold, Idalia (MH)

What a day. Will get to videos tomorrow. Incredible stuff.

Nice job. Always look forward to your thoughts. Although the center was just to my SE it worked out perfectly because I got the mean part of the eyewall. Never seen lightning like that in an eyewall and literally heard no thunder. Will get to videos tomorrow. Think it was higher than that but good stuff regardless. Laura was in a different class. What was the landfall pressure? I got down to 960.1.

Thanks. I had to drive south for signal. Damage was bad between Perry and Steinhatchee, and gradually improved further south. How did you make it out? Hope all is well with you and your family.

Will get to more videos later but this was basically the storm in a nutshell. I was safe. Really.