WxWatcher007

Ridge looks a touch stronger too, at least compared to yesterday’s 12z Euro Signal looks legit for an Apalachee Bay special.

Definitely further inland and away from any surge threat. Thinking I may be headed northwest given the continued model shifts.

Wagons west it looks like.

There will def be jogs west and east as this rapidly intensifies. Just try to pay attention to the long term trend.

Thanks—I was looking for the hurricane models: HWRF, HAFS A, HAFS B they come out a little later.

Steinhatchee is also a surge/evac zone. No bueno. I only chase for wind. I try to get as close as I can without being in surge risk.

Yeah not much. It was a dark ride into Chiefland last night. Other problem with those places is idk if I’d trust the roof/structure to hold during a major strike. That’s a big part of my planning. I saw one motel and it was barely holding together lol.

12z is out on Tropical Tidbits? I don’t see it yet.

I actually had a place in Perry but hedged east and gave it back yesterday. Problem is that a landfall at Steinhatchee would be roughly the same distance from here as it would be from Perry. And of course, guidance continues looking even further west. Its just one of those things that’ll require me to keep watching the trend today with storm motion. I need to see when this NNE turn happens. It’ll be close.

12z too now

The main thread can get messy so quickly

That’d be in line with the hurricane models that show takeoff this afternoon.

Thoughts on LF location? I feel like I can’t rule out a direct hit in the Bay south of Tallahassee, but could easily see a last minute east trend.

Thanks. Really rural out here so not a ton of options. Really tough center forecast when a few miles makes a huge difference. Watching that west trend among the hurricane models too.

Rotating upshear too. If it can solidify the eyewall the intensification pace should pick up substantially.

You can see it in the dropsondes. Especially the latest NE eyewall one.

Product: NOAA Vortex Message (URNT12 KWBC)Transmitted: 29th day of the month at 14:29ZAgency: National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA)Aircraft: Lockheed WP-3D Orion (Reg. Num. N43RF)Storm Name: IdaliaStorm Number & Year: 10 in 2023 (flight in the North Atlantic basin)Mission Number: 10Observation Number: 25 ( See all messages of this type for this mission. )A. Time of Center Fix: 29th day of the month at 13:30:53ZB. Center Fix Coordinates: 24.29N 84.85WB. Center Fix Location: 177 statute miles (285 km) to the WNW (297°) from Havana, Cuba.C. Minimum Height at Standard Level: 2,931m (9,616ft) at 700mbD. Minimum Sea Level Pressure: 978mb (28.88 inHg)E. Dropsonde Surface Wind at Center: From 310° at 10kts (From the NW at 12mph)F. Eye Character: ClosedG. Eye Shape & Diameter: Circular with a diameter of 26 nautical miles (30 statute miles)H. Estimated (by SFMR or visually) Maximum Surface Wind Inbound: 45kts (51.8mph)I. Location & Time of the Estimated Maximum Surface Wind Inbound: 9 nautical miles to the SW (217°) of center fix at 13:28:40ZJ. Maximum Flight Level Wind Inbound: From 317° at 51kts (From the NW at 58.7mph)K. Location & Time of the Maximum Flight Level Wind Inbound: 13 nautical miles (15 statute miles) to the SW (222°) of center fix at 13:27:46ZL. Estimated (by SFMR or visually) Maximum Surface Wind Outbound: 70kts (80.6mph)M. Location & Time of the Estimated Maximum Surface Wind Outbound: 15 nautical miles (17 statute miles) to the NE (55°) of center fix at 13:34:45ZN. Maximum Flight Level Wind Outbound: From 163° at 71kts (From the SSE at 81.7mph)O. Location & Time of the Maximum Flight Level Wind Outbound: 20 nautical miles (23 statute miles) to the NE/ENE (56°) of center fix at 13:35:59ZP. Maximum Flight Level Temp & Pressure Altitude Outside Eye: 12°C (54°F) at a pressure alt. of 3,059m (10,036ft)Q. Maximum Flight Level Temp & Pressure Altitude Inside Eye: 17°C (63°F) at a pressure alt. of 3,064m (10,052ft)R. Dewpoint Temp (collected at same location as temp inside eye): 15°C (59°F)R. Sea Surface Temp (collected at same location as temp inside eye): Not AvailableS. Fix Determined By: Penetration, Radar, Wind, Pressure and TemperatureS. Fix Level: 700mbT. Navigational Fix Accuracy: 0.01 nautical milesT. Meteorological Accuracy: 1 nautical mileRemarks Section: Maximum Flight Level Wind: 71kts (~ 81.7mph) which was observed 20 nautical miles (23 statute miles) to the NE/ENE (56°) from the flight level center at 13:35:59Z

Closed eye now per recon Product: NOAA Vortex Message (URNT12 KWBC)Transmitted: 29th day of the month at 14:29ZAgency: National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA)Aircraft: Lockheed WP-3D Orion (Reg. Num. N43RF)Storm Name: IdaliaStorm Number & Year: 10 in 2023 (flight in the North Atlantic basin)Mission Number: 10Observation Number: 25 ( See all messages of this type for this mission. )A. Time of Center Fix: 29th day of the month at 13:30:53ZB. Center Fix Coordinates: 24.29N 84.85WB. Center Fix Location: 177 statute miles (285 km) to the WNW (297°) from Havana, Cuba.C. Minimum Height at Standard Level: 2,931m (9,616ft) at 700mbD. Minimum Sea Level Pressure: 978mb (28.88 inHg)E. Dropsonde Surface Wind at Center: From 310° at 10kts (From the NW at 12mph)F. Eye Character: ClosedG. Eye Shape & Diameter: Circular with a diameter of 26 nautical miles (30 statute miles)H. Estimated (by SFMR or visually) Maximum Surface Wind Inbound: 45kts (51.8mph)I. Location & Time of the Estimated Maximum Surface Wind Inbound: 9 nautical miles to the SW (217°) of center fix at 13:28:40ZJ. Maximum Flight Level Wind Inbound: From 317° at 51kts (From the NW at 58.7mph)K. Location & Time of the Maximum Flight Level Wind Inbound: 13 nautical miles (15 statute miles) to the SW (222°) of center fix at 13:27:46ZL. Estimated (by SFMR or visually) Maximum Surface Wind Outbound: 70kts (80.6mph)M. Location & Time of the Estimated Maximum Surface Wind Outbound: 15 nautical miles (17 statute miles) to the NE (55°) of center fix at 13:34:45ZN. Maximum Flight Level Wind Outbound: From 163° at 71kts (From the SSE at 81.7mph)O. Location & Time of the Maximum Flight Level Wind Outbound: 20 nautical miles (23 statute miles) to the NE/ENE (56°) of center fix at 13:35:59ZP. Maximum Flight Level Temp & Pressure Altitude Outside Eye: 12°C (54°F) at a pressure alt. of 3,059m (10,036ft)Q. Maximum Flight Level Temp & Pressure Altitude Inside Eye: 17°C (63°F) at a pressure alt. of 3,064m (10,052ft)R. Dewpoint Temp (collected at same location as temp inside eye): 15°C (59°F)R. Sea Surface Temp (collected at same location as temp inside eye): Not AvailableS. Fix Determined By: Penetration, Radar, Wind, Pressure and TemperatureS. Fix Level: 700mbT. Navigational Fix Accuracy: 0.01 nautical milesT. Meteorological Accuracy: 1 nautical mileRemarks Section: Maximum Flight Level Wind: 71kts (~ 81.7mph) which was observed 20 nautical miles (23 statute miles) to the NE/ENE (56°) from the flight level center at 13:35:59Z

Always!

I'm in Chiefland, FL this morning, just inland from Cedar Key. We have a hurricane warning here and folks are taking the storm seriously. The forecast for the center is very tricky even now, as some models have been trending westward toward a near direct hit of Tallahassee while others are further east down to Cedar Key. The parallel track along the west coast of Florida makes this hard. I am hedging east right now, but am prepared to move north if necessary this evening. Will monitor trends. As is usually the case, my friend @MillvilleWx is in communication with me, and this time I'm grateful to have @ORH_wxman supporting as well. If I lose power and internet, I'll be in touch with them so that everyone here knows I'm ok. Driving in last night there was a wicked storm to my south. Perhaps a preview...

HWRF is being retired by HAFS, but I think they’re all excellent. There’s just a lot of uncertainty on where this tops out.

This is WxWatcher007 reporting live from Chiefland, FL, just inland from Cedar Key. We have a hurricane warning here and folks are taking the storm seriously. The forecast for the center is very tricky even now, as some models have been trending westward toward a near direct hit of Tallahassee while others are further east down to Cedar Key. The parallel track along the west coast of Florida makes this hard. I am hedging east right now, but am prepared to move north if necessary this evening. Will monitor trends. As is usually the case, my friend @MillvilleWx is in communication with me, and this time I'm grateful to have @ORH_wxman supporting as well. If I lose power and internet, I'll be in touch with them so that everyone here knows I'm ok. Driving in last night there was a wicked storm to my south. Perhaps a preview...

There’s your 69-70kt SFMR.