WxWatcher007

It's like folks along the Gulf Coast having an annual thread for winter storms. Except for Maritime Canada. They're on a heater recently. This one looks legit for them.

12z GFS with its strongest run yet. All systems go as soon as this closes off.

Yep, PTC 9 coming at 11am. Expecting to see watches/warnings up for the coast.

Same. I thought they named 91L but then I was like wait what?!? After all the defending I do of the NHC they do this to me.

Really want to see what recon finds during the early afternoon, but this looks to be organizing at a solid pace currently. Not sure I see any westerlies yet, but with convection trying to fire near the MLC if this does get a robust LLC it could pick up the organizational pace.

A day late, but the peak forecast is coming

Emily was legit. Gert was name worthy for like 14 minutes.

Emily was legit for a while. Gert makes little sense to me but I think it’s scientifically valid I guess

It’s gradually getting its act together, still. I’m thinking PTC at 11am because this is still a little broad. Would need to organize a little faster though imo to have a reasonable shot to maximize potential. First viz will be telling. Western Gulf of Mexico (AL91): Showers and thunderstorms are showing signs of organization in association with a broad area of low pressure located over the central Gulf of Mexico. Environmental conditions appear conducive for development of this system, and a tropical depression or tropical storm is likely to form before it reaches the western Gulf of Mexico coastline on Tuesday. Interests in southern Texas and northern Mexico should monitor the progress of this system as tropical storm watches or warnings are likely to be issued later today. * Formation chance through 48 hours...high...80 percent. * Formation chance through 7 days...high...80 percent.

Well it looks like all three pieces of the former monsoon trough got named

Gotta watch what happens with that potential CAG in the Gulf/W. Caribbean at the end of the month.

This thread is always good for some laughs

Franklin with an absolutely epic tower going up right now.

Love it

I have a hard time seeing this coming apart before hitting one of the islands given how resilient it has been so far in the face of shear/dry air.

Tropical Weather Outlook NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 800 PM EDT Sun Aug 20 2023 For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico: Active Systems: The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Tropical Depression Six, located several hundred miles east of the northern Leeward Islands, on Tropical Storm Emily, located about 1000 miles west-northwest of the Cabo Verde Islands, and on newly formed Tropical Storm Franklin, located over the eastern Caribbean Sea. 1. Western Gulf of Mexico (AL91): Showers and thunderstorms have increased this evening, and are becoming better organized in association with a trough of low pressure located in the eastern Gulf of Mexico. Environmental conditions appear favorable for development of this system as it moves westward at about 15 to 20 mph across the central Gulf of Mexico. A tropical depression or storm is likely to form as it approaches the western Gulf of Mexico coastline by Tuesday. Interests in the western Gulf of Mexico should monitor the progress of this system. Tropical storm watches or warnings may be necessary on Monday for portions of the southern Texas and northern Mexico coastlines. * Formation chance through 48 hours...high...70 percent. * Formation chance through 7 days...high...70 percent. 2. Eastern Tropical Atlantic: A large area of disorganized showers and thunderstorms over the far eastern tropical Atlantic is associated with a tropical wave located near the Cabo Verde Islands. Environmental conditions appear conducive for gradual development of this system, and a tropical depression is likely to form later this week while it moves west-northwestward across the eastern tropical Atlantic. * Formation chance through 48 hours...low...30 percent. * Formation chance through 7 days...high...70 percent.

I would definitely watch up there.

Insane

No surprise, but forecast to become a hurricane in the first advisory package. Tropical Storm Franklin Discussion Number 1 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL082023 500 PM AST Sun Aug 20 2023 This afternoon we have received a wealth of data from both a NOAA reconnaissance mission and satellite imagery near the area of low pressure located in the eastern Caribbean Sea. Earlier visible satellite imagery showed the system had likely formed a tight low-level vortex based on the earlier cloud motions before a convective burst obscured the center. Scatterometer data that clipped the system on the east side also showed winds near tropical storm intensity. The NOAA aircraft flew through the system shortly thereafter, and found the system had indeed formed a well-defined center, with 950-mb flight level winds of 51 kt just to the northeast of the center. All this information confirms that Tropical Storm Franklin has formed this afternoon, with an initial intensity set at 40 kt. The initial motion is off to the west-northwest at 290/12 kt. Over the next 24 hours this general motion should continue while the system remains steered by a narrow mid-level ridge. Thereafter, a large mid-ocean trough over the western Atlantic will produce a pronounced weakness in this ridging, likely causing the tropical storm to make a sharp turn northward, bringing the storm near or over the large island of Hispaniola in about 48-60 h. Afterwards, another mid-latitude trough is forecast to amplify southward, maintaining this weakness, and resulting in Franklin turning northeastward towards the end of the forecast period. There is a decent amount of spread in the track guidance, related to just when Franklin will make the initial northward turn. For this initial forecast, the NHC track forecast will stick close to the track consensus TVCN, which favors a track in between the latest ECMWF and GFS solutions, favoring the GFS a bit more. Intensity wise, Franklin may have to deal with a bit of westerly wind shear in the short-term, limiting more robust intensification early on. However, this shear drops off as the system makes its turn northward towards Hispaniola a bit more intensification is shown with a 55-kt intensity peak as Franklin approaches the coast. The intensity forecast then is complicated by the fact that Franklin will likely pass near or over the island sometime in the 2-3 day time period, and some weakening is shown during this time. However, the forecast environment after the system re-emerges into the Western Atlantic looks mostly favorable, with reintensification likely as long as the system is not too disrupted by the higher terrain of Hispaniola. The NHC intensity forecast is in good agreement with the consensus aids, and lies closest to the HFIP corrected consensus approach through the forecast period. Based on the current track forecast, a tropical storm watch has been issued for the entire southern coastline of Haiti and the Dominican Republic. KEY MESSAGES: 1. Franklin is forecast to approach Hispaniola late on Tuesday and move across the island on Wednesday as a tropical storm, bringing a risk of flooding from heavy rainfall, strong winds, and dangerous waves along the coast. 2. Heavy rainfall from Franklin is expected across portions of Puerto Rico and Hispaniola through the middle of the week. The heavy rainfall may produce areas of flash and urban flooding as well as river rises and mudslides. Across Hispaniola, significant and potentially life-threatening flash flooding is possible Tuesday into Wednesday. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 20/2100Z 14.6N 67.1W 40 KT 45 MPH 12H 21/0600Z 15.0N 68.9W 45 KT 50 MPH 24H 21/1800Z 15.4N 70.7W 45 KT 50 MPH 36H 22/0600Z 15.8N 71.5W 50 KT 60 MPH 48H 22/1800Z 17.2N 71.5W 55 KT 65 MPH 60H 23/0600Z 19.1N 71.1W 50 KT 60 MPH...INLAND 72H 23/1800Z 21.0N 70.6W 55 KT 65 MPH...OVER WATER 96H 24/1800Z 23.9N 67.5W 65 KT 75 MPH 120H 25/1800Z 25.4N 65.0W 75 KT 85 MPH $$ Forecaster Papin