WxWatcher007

Always appreciate seeing your thoughts. Nice write up.

Yeah I mean as long as there are deep convective bursts like this it makes it more likely we see it wrap up. The hurricane models have had a good handle on its structure looking at 00z. It may take time, but a legitimate signal remains for a major hurricane. Latest dropsonde suggests that the pressures are lower than the extrapolated, and the first sonde about an hour ago, so it's moving along... Off to bed now. Night everyone. Product: Air Force Temp Drop (Dropsonde) Message (UZNT13 KNHC)Transmitted: 28th day of the month at 6:24ZAgency: United States Air ForceAircraft: Lockheed WC-130J Hercules with reg. number AF97-5304Storm Name: IdaliaStorm Number: 10 (flight in the North Atlantic basin)Mission Number: 3Observation Number: 15 ( See all messages of this type for this mission. )Part A... Date: Near the closest hour of 6Z on the 28th day of the month Highest Mandatory Level For Which Wind Was Reported: 925mb Coordinates: 19.8N 85.2W Location: 143 statute miles (229 km) to the SE (131°) from Cancún, Quintana Roo, Mexico. Marsden Square: 045 ( About ) Surface and Standard Isobaric Surfaces Level Geo. Height Air Temp. Dew Point Wind Direction Wind Speed 1000mb -96m (-315 ft) This level does not exist in this area of the storm above the surface level. 989mb (29.21 inHg) Surface (Sea Level) 28.0°C (82.4°F) 26.4°C (80°F) 240° (from the WSW) 13 knots (15 mph) 925mb 597m (1,959 ft) 24.2°C (75.6°F) 23.6°C (74°F) 230° (from the SW) 11 knots (13 mph) 850mb 1,341m (4,400 ft) 24.4°C (75.9°F) About 17°C (63°F) No Wind Report Available For This Level Information About Radiosonde: - Launch Time: 6:19Z - About Sonde: A descending radiosonde tracked automatically by satellite navigation with no solar or infrared correction. Remarks Section... Dropsonde Location: Dropped in center. Highest altitude where wind was reported: - Location: 19.81N 85.19W - Time: 6:19:25Z Lowest altitude where wind was reported: - Location: 19.82N 85.19W - Time: 6:21:23Z Mean Boundary Level Wind (mean wind in the lowest 500 geopotential meters of the sounding): - Wind Direction: 230° (from the SW) - Wind Speed: 12 knots (14 mph) Deep Layer Mean Wind (average wind over the depth of the sounding): - Wind Direction: 230° (from the SW) - Wind Speed: 10 knots (12 mph) - Depth of Sounding: From 852mb to 989mb Average Wind Over Lowest Available 150 geopotential meters (gpm) of the sounding: - Lowest 150m: 155 gpm - 5 gpm (509 geo. feet - 16 geo. feet) - Wind Direction: 230° (from the SW) - Wind Speed: 12 knots (14 mph) Sounding Software Version: AEV 30407 Part B: Data for Significant Levels... Significant Temperature And Relative Humidity Levels Level Air Temperature Dew Point 989mb (Surface) 28.0°C (82.4°F) 26.4°C (80°F) 907mb 23.4°C (74.1°F) 23.2°C (74°F) 850mb 24.4°C (75.9°F) About 17°C (63°F) 843mb Unavailable Significant Wind Levels Level Wind Direction Wind Speed 989mb (Surface) 240° (from the WSW) 13 knots (15 mph) 980mb 230° (from the SW) 12 knots (14 mph) 928mb 225° (from the SW) 12 knots (14 mph) 887mb 240° (from the WSW) 10 knots (12 mph) 864mb 190° (from the S) 7 knots (8 mph) 852mb 280° (from the W) 1 knots (1 mph)

992.2mb extrapolated on the second pass. Peak FL of 53kts and SFMR of 47 & 48kts. Idalia has made a lot of progress in the last 24 hours in tightening up, but it's not there yet in terms of developing a nascent inner core. Not enough upshear thunderstorm activity is limiting intensification. For now.

Recon moving toward a NE to SW pass. Should get a lot of good info in the next 30 minutes or so.

1:00 AM CDT Mon Aug 28Location: 19.7°N 85.3°WMoving: StationaryMin pressure: 990 mbMax sustained: 60 mph

First VDM. Importantly, no evidence of an eye from recon. I'm interested in seeing what the wind field looks like (how symmetrical it is) and what the FL/SFMR are in the NE quad. Will also be telling if pressures fall in between center fixes. Product: Air Force Vortex Message (URNT12 KNHC)Transmitted: 28th day of the month at 5:28ZAgency: United States Air ForceAircraft: Lockheed WC-130J Hercules with reg. number AF97-5304Storm Name: IdaliaStorm Number & Year: 10 in 2023 (flight in the North Atlantic basin)Mission Number: 3Observation Number: 08 ( See all messages of this type for this mission. )A. Time of Center Fix: 28th day of the month at 5:08:40ZB. Center Fix Coordinates: 19.72N 85.25WB. Center Fix Location: 144 statute miles (232 km) to the SE (134°) from Cancún, Quintana Roo, Mexico.C. Minimum Height at Standard Level: 1,363m (4,472ft) at 850mbD. Minimum Sea Level Pressure: 991mb (29.27 inHg)E. Dropsonde Surface Wind at Center: From 190° at 17kts (From the S at 20mph)F. Eye Character: Not AvailableG. Eye Shape: Not AvailableH. Estimated (by SFMR or visually) Maximum Surface Wind Inbound: 27kts (31.1mph)I. Location & Time of the Estimated Maximum Surface Wind Inbound: 15 nautical miles (17 statute miles) to the NW (309°) of center fix at 5:03:30ZJ. Maximum Flight Level Wind Inbound: From 36° at 31kts (From the NE at 35.7mph)K. Location & Time of the Maximum Flight Level Wind Inbound: 24 nautical miles (28 statute miles) to the NW (309°) of center fix at 5:01:00ZL. Estimated (by SFMR or visually) Maximum Surface Wind Outbound: 54kts (62.1mph)M. Location & Time of the Estimated Maximum Surface Wind Outbound: 17 nautical miles (20 statute miles) to the SE (134°) of center fix at 5:14:00ZN. Maximum Flight Level Wind Outbound: From 230° at 59kts (From the SW at 67.9mph)O. Location & Time of the Maximum Flight Level Wind Outbound: 11 nautical miles (13 statute miles) to the SE (134°) of center fix at 5:12:00ZP. Maximum Flight Level Temp & Pressure Altitude Outside Eye: 26°C (79°F) at a pressure alt. of 1,532m (5,026ft)Q. Maximum Flight Level Temp & Pressure Altitude Inside Eye: 25°C (77°F) at a pressure alt. of 1,534m (5,033ft)R. Dewpoint Temp (collected at same location as temp inside eye): 18°C (64°F)R. Sea Surface Temp (collected at same location as temp inside eye): Not AvailableS. Fix Determined By: Penetration, Wind and PressureS. Fix Level: 850mbT. Navigational Fix Accuracy: 0.02 nautical milesT. Meteorological Accuracy: 5 nautical milesRemarks Section: Maximum Flight Level Wind: 59kts (~ 67.9mph) which was observed 11 nautical miles (13 statute miles) to the SE (134°) from the flight level center at 5:12:00Z Maximum Flight Level Temp: 26°C (79°F) which was observed 11 nautical miles (13 statute miles) to the NW (313°) from the flight level center

Sorry for all the rapid fire posts. Finishing up the NW to SE pass, recon finds peak FL (flight level wind) of 58kt and unflagged SFMR of 53 and 54kt, confirming the 11pm wind in the advisory.

Center dropsonde shows a pressure around 989-990mb. Product: Air Force Temp Drop (Dropsonde) Message (UZNT13 KNHC)Transmitted: 28th day of the month at 5:17ZAgency: United States Air ForceAircraft: Lockheed WC-130J Hercules with reg. number AF97-5304Storm Name: IdaliaStorm Number: 10 (flight in the North Atlantic basin)Mission Number: 3Observation Number: 09 ( See all messages of this type for this mission. )Part A... Date: Near the closest hour of 5Z on the 28th day of the month Highest Mandatory Level For Which Wind Was Reported: 925mb Coordinates: 19.7N 85.2W Location: 147 statute miles (237 km) to the SE (133°) from Cancún, Quintana Roo, Mexico. Marsden Square: 045 ( About ) Surface and Standard Isobaric Surfaces Level Geo. Height Air Temp. Dew Point Wind Direction Wind Speed 1000mb -82m (-269 ft) This level does not exist in this area of the storm above the surface level. 991mb (29.27 inHg) Surface (Sea Level) 27.8°C (82.0°F) 25.0°C (77°F) 190° (from the S) 17 knots (20 mph) 925mb 609m (1,998 ft) 23.6°C (74.5°F) 22.8°C (73°F) 205° (from the SSW) 14 knots (16 mph) 850mb 1,349m (4,426 ft) 22.4°C (72.3°F) 18.8°C (66°F) No Wind Report Available For This Level Information About Radiosonde: - Launch Time: 5:09Z - About Sonde: A descending radiosonde tracked automatically by satellite navigation with no solar or infrared correction. Remarks Section... Dropsonde Location: Dropped in center. Highest altitude where wind was reported: - Location: 19.70N 85.23W - Time: 5:09:19Z Lowest altitude where wind was reported: - Location: 19.70N 85.22W - Time: 5:11:17Z Mean Boundary Level Wind (mean wind in the lowest 500 geopotential meters of the sounding): - Wind Direction: 200° (from the SSW) - Wind Speed: 15 knots (17 mph) Deep Layer Mean Wind (average wind over the depth of the sounding): - Wind Direction: 190° (from the S) - Wind Speed: 14 knots (16 mph) - Depth of Sounding: From 853mb to 990mb Average Wind Over Lowest Available 150 geopotential meters (gpm) of the sounding: - Lowest 150m: 155 gpm - 5 gpm (509 geo. feet - 16 geo. feet) - Wind Direction: 195° (from the SSW) - Wind Speed: 16 knots (18 mph) Sounding Software Version: AEV 30407 Part B: Data for Significant Levels... Significant Temperature And Relative Humidity Levels Level Air Temperature Dew Point 991mb (Surface) 27.8°C (82.0°F) 25.0°C (77°F) 897mb 22.2°C (72.0°F) 21.3°C (70°F) 860mb 21.6°C (70.9°F) 20.5°C (69°F) 850mb 22.4°C (72.3°F) 18.8°C (66°F) 844mb Unavailable Significant Wind Levels Level Wind Direction Wind Speed 991mb (Surface) 190° (from the S) 17 knots (20 mph) 944mb 205° (from the SSW) 13 knots (15 mph) 927mb 205° (from the SSW) 15 knots (17 mph) 865mb 160° (from the SSE) 15 knots (17 mph) 853mb 155° (from the SSE) 11 knots (13 mph)

Extrapolated pressure of 990.6mb taken at ~4700ft. Peak FL of 59kt. Edit: This is a NW to SE pass for those that can't follow closely. https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/recon/#AF304-0310A-IDALIA

00z GEFS through D5.

Recon still moving toward the center. Nothing stands out thus far.

Recon starting to descend into Idalia..

Hurricane Franklin Discussion Number 30 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL082023 1100 PM EDT Sun Aug 27 2023 Franklin is becoming better organized tonight. A ragged eye has emerged in conventional satellite imagery during the past few hours, and the Air Force Hurricane Hunters reported a closed eyewall during recent passes through the center. Aircraft data indicated the minimum pressure has continued to fall, with a 00 UTC dropsonde reporting a pressure of 964 mb. Since the plane departed, the satellite structure of Franklin has markedly improved, with very cold cloud tops wrapping around the eastern portion of the circulation. The initial intensity of 90 kt is supported by recent objective estimates from UW-CIMSS and a T5.0 subjective Dvorak classification from TAFB at 00 UTC. Recent satellite images suggest the hurricane is finally turning more northward as expected, and the initial motion is north-northwestward (330/7 kt). A gradual turn to the north and north-northeast is forecast during the next couple of days as Franklin moves around the western periphery of a high pressure ridge. The track guidance is in good agreement on this portion of the forecast, and only minor westward adjustments were made following the latest HCCA and TVCA aids. Thereafter, track uncertainty increases regarding Franklin's interaction with a deep-layer trough moving off the U.S. east coast by midweek. The GFS and ECMWF lie on opposite sides of the guidance envelope, with an 850 n-mi spread at 96 h. Given the greater than normal uncertainty, the NHC track forecast remains close to the multi-model consensus aids at days 3-5, showing a gradually faster east-northeastward to northeastward motion during this period. Based on recent satellite trends, it appears that the shear has weakened and the inner core of Franklin has become more solidified. Thus, the hurricane could be primed to strengthen in the near term within a low shear environment over very warm SSTs. The NHC forecast brings Franklin to major hurricane intensity in 12 h with more strengthening thereafter, in best agreement with some of the regional hurricane models and slightly above the HCCA/IVCN aids. As the hurricane recurves, increased deep-layer shear and cooler waters should induce some weakening, although the wind field will expand while the hurricane moves further into the mid-latitudes. This forecast shows Franklin becoming extratropical at day 5, although the timing could be refined based on future track forecasts. Although the core of Franklin is forecast to pass west and north of Bermuda during the next few days, its expanding wind field will likely require a tropical storm watch for the island on Monday. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 28/0300Z 26.4N 70.5W 90 KT 105 MPH 12H 28/1200Z 27.3N 71.0W 100 KT 115 MPH 24H 29/0000Z 28.9N 71.2W 110 KT 125 MPH 36H 29/1200Z 30.4N 70.7W 115 KT 130 MPH 48H 30/0000Z 32.2N 69.5W 110 KT 125 MPH 60H 30/1200Z 33.8N 67.3W 100 KT 115 MPH 72H 31/0000Z 35.2N 64.2W 95 KT 110 MPH 96H 01/0000Z 37.5N 57.0W 80 KT 90 MPH 120H 02/0000Z 42.0N 49.5W 65 KT 75 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP $$ Forecaster Reinhart

I think the dice have been cast at this point, and it’s not looking good for Florida. It’s very possible that this latest attempt at an inner core falls short, but even if it does the system is undoubtedly more organized. That will make it more resilient to any shear/dry air until upper level diffluence gets involved…which should get it to a new level. This is a short range forecast at this point. Probably inside 60 hours to landfall. If I had to guess right now, we end up somewhere between 105-115kts, but this is a volatile one. I’d also watch for a system with lower central pressure but broader wind field. That’d actually be the worst case for FL.

Outperforming already high expectations..

Recon is now in the air and headed toward Idalia.

Just a really cool loop to watch

Something about this description to someone called SnowLover just cracks me up.

That buoy is displaying a legit pressure fall. Looking at that, IR, and most importantly radar, it looks like Idalia is trying to take this latest mesovortex and turn it into the beginnings of an inner core. The longer the convective towers can fire absent disruptive shear and dry air intrusion, the more likely it’ll be able to go from mesovortex in a broader circulation to nascent inner core. Seeing convection try to rotate upshear on radar is a meaningful piece of data.

I think there’s still a fairly sizable split on it, but odds seem to be increasing that it’ll be moving pretty quickly.

Looks like a localized heavy rain event across guidance now. Haven't been paying much attention.

This x100. Until we can get persistent convection over the center and convection rotating upshear it'll be hard to build a core. Guidance does have that happen eventually but it may take some time. It'll be interesting to see what recon finds tonight.

It looks fine to me. This is the only active flight.

I’d take this to mean that we did get valuable storm structure data for 12z, but much more will be coming in subsequent model suites with high altitude and low level recon continuing through the day and evening.