WxWatcher007

Comes with the territory here. We’re on to fall and football season.

Tropical Depression Ten Discussion Number 1 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL102023 400 PM CDT Sat Aug 26 2023 The cloud pattern of the low pressure area located near the northeastern Yucatan Peninsula of Mexico has gradually become better organized today. Radar observations show a circulation has developed, although surface observations indicate that the western semicircle of this circulation is rather weak at this time. Given the increased organization, advisories are being initiated on Tropical Depression Ten. Surface synoptic observations suggest that the current intensity is around 25 kt. The current motion estimate is nearly stationary. There is a weakness in the subtropical ridge to the north of the tropical cyclone, leaving the system in a region of very weak steering flow. The dynamical guidance indicates that the system will remain in weak steering currents for the next 24 to 36 hours, so very little motion is predicted during that period. After that time, a mid-level ridge begins to build to the east of the tropical cyclone. This should cause a generally northward motion in the next 2 to 3 days. Then, a gradual turn to the north-northeast is expected as the system moves along the northwestern periphery of the ridge. The official track forecast is a blend of the simple and corrected dynamical model consensus guidance. The tropical cyclone will be moving over very warm waters with only moderate vertical wind shear anticipated during the next several days. Therefore, gradual strengthening is forecast. The official forecast is similar to the latest LGEM guidance and shows the system becoming a hurricane over the eastern Gulf of Mexico. Users are reminded that there is significant uncertainty in 3-4 day intensity predictions and are urged to monitor changes to future forecasts. KEY MESSAGES: 1. Heavy rainfall from Tropical Depression Ten is expected across the eastern Yucatan Peninsula and western Cuba. The heavy rainfall may produce areas of flash and urban flooding, as well as landslides, across western Cuba. The depression is forecast to become a tropical storm by Sunday, and tropical storm conditions are expected over portions of the Yucatan Peninsula where a Tropical Storm Warning is in effect. Tropical storm conditions are possible over portions of western Cuba within the Tropical Storm Watch area. 2. The depression is forecast to strengthen during the next few days and could become a hurricane over the eastern Gulf of Mexico, bringing a potential of dangerous storm surge, heavy rainfall, and strong winds to portions of the west coast of Florida and the Florida Panhandle by the middle of next week. Heavy rainfall is also likely to spread into portions of the Southeast U.S. by mid to late next week. Although it is too soon to specify the exact location and magnitude of these impacts, residents in these areas should monitor updates to the forecast of this system and ensure that they have their hurricane plan in place. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 26/2100Z 21.1N 86.1W 25 KT 30 MPH 12H 27/0600Z 21.0N 86.3W 30 KT 35 MPH 24H 27/1800Z 20.9N 86.2W 35 KT 40 MPH 36H 28/0600Z 20.8N 86.1W 40 KT 45 MPH 48H 28/1800Z 22.0N 85.7W 45 KT 50 MPH 60H 29/0600Z 24.0N 85.6W 50 KT 60 MPH 72H 29/1800Z 26.3N 85.3W 65 KT 75 MPH 96H 30/1800Z 31.5N 83.0W 45 KT 50 MPH...INLAND 120H 31/1800Z 35.0N 79.0W 30 KT 35 MPH...INLAND $$ Forecaster Pasch

Boring end to summer

Because there’s nothing else to do…I’m guessing their first map will have a landfall near Steinhatchee (north of Cedar Key) at 70kts, cautiously setting aside the higher intensity hurricane models until recon can get in there tomorrow.

12z EPS Worth noting how bearish the ensembles continue to be on significant development. This isn't a long range forecast.

Gert may have been on their mind

Advisories likely at 5pm as the organizational trend for 93L continues. Big split on the guidance on the eventual track after Florida and honestly, idk where it's going to go given the massive steering pattern shifting we've been seeing on guidance for the northeast trough that was supposed to carry Franklin away.

I had no idea when I did my peak forecast and said that the US would have another MH landfall this season that one would threaten a week later I always saw potential with the last week of August though...

If you want to know how seriously the NOAA/NHC is taking this, here’s your answer This is not something to wait until the last minute to prepare for.

The 12z Euro basically leaves Franklin behind after looping over Bermuda! That's like a 1500 mile trend over 24 hours. That's extraordinary, and would almost certainly make Franklin a big ACE producer.

With the massive shifts we're seeing on the guidance with regard to the steering pattern post landfall, there's a lot of uncertainty on where this eventually ends up after Florida, and if it gets left behind by the northeast trough. I know that's far out, but it's something of interest for the SE coast folks.

I am really fascinated by this. It has been a truly appalling performance by the models on Franklin. Now the Euro basically takes Franklin from west to east near or over Bermuda. These are massive shifts at medium range.

On TT I like using 200-850mb wind shear, and the same 200-850mb wind shear anomaly plot for pattern recognition. Going deeper, I love using the 355k Potential Vorticity plots as well to recognize TUTT development/movement/strength. Of course, you have the averaged soundings that can be used as well.

Euro short range still wants to take this near or over the Yucatan in the next 24 hours, so I suppose that's still something to watch. All the globals still playing catch up though to the organization we've seen so far.

No surprise, but the NHC is telegraphing advisories later today. Tropical Weather Outlook NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 200 PM EDT Sat Aug 26 2023 For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico: Active Systems: The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on recently upgraded Hurricane Franklin, located several hundred miles south of Bermuda. Northwestern Caribbean Sea and Eastern Gulf of Mexico (AL93): Showers and thunderstorms associated with an area of low pressure located near the Yucatan Channel continue to gradually become better organized. If this trend continues, advisories will be initiated on this system later today. The system is expected to move very slowly northward into the southeastern Gulf of Mexico during the next couple of days. Heavy rains are likely over portions of western Cuba and the Yucatan Peninsula of Mexico. Interests in the Yucatan Peninsula of Mexico, western Cuba, and Florida should monitor the progress of this system. * Formation chance through 48 hours...high...90 percent. * Formation chance through 7 days...high...90 percent.

Agree. I really think it’s land interaction at least initially. The visible has been impressive, but look at the Cancun radar. This is a TD imo and if it’s not it’s damn close. https://bmcnoldy.earth.miami.edu/tropics/radar/

Hurricane Franklin Discussion Number 24 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL082023 1100 AM AST Sat Aug 26 2023 Franklin has become better organized this morning on satellite and microwave imagery. An earlier SSMIS microwave pass showed a developing core with the mid and low-level center becoming more vertically aligned. Early visible satellite images showed a ragged eye, which has become cloud filled in the last hour or two. Deep convection around Franklin has become more symmetric compared to recent days, likely due to a decrease in vertical wind shear. Air Force and NOAA Hurricane Hunters have been in the system this morning, and found that the surface pressure has dropped to 989 mb and SFMR winds were around 60 to 65 kt from both aircraft. Given the data from the aircraft reconnaissance, Franklin has been upgraded to a Hurricane, with the initial intensity set at 65 kt. Franklin is the second hurricane of the 2023 Atlantic hurricane season. Franklin is moving north-northwestward at 6 kt. A north-northwestward to northward motion is forecast during the next few days as the storm moves along the western periphery of a mid-level ridge, taking it to the west of Bermuda on Tuesday. By the middle of next week, a faster northeastward motion is expected when Franklin moves in between the ridge and a mid- to upper-level trough over eastern Canada and the northeastern United States. The track models have shifted to the west once again this cycle, and the NHC track forecast follows that trend and is slightly slower than the previous one at long ranges. Franklin is expected to steadily strengthen during the next few days with lower vertical wind shear, and warm sea surface temperatures in the western Atlantic. Franklin is forecast to become a major hurricane early next week. The strengthening trend should end in about 3 to 4 days with shear expected to increase. By Day 5, the system will move over much cooler SSTs leading to increased weakening. The intensity models are higher this cycle, and the NHC forecast has been nudged upward, but still remains below the IVCN and HCCA consensus models. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 26/1500Z 23.5N 66.7W 65 KT 75 MPH 12H 27/0000Z 24.2N 67.0W 70 KT 80 MPH 24H 27/1200Z 25.4N 67.8W 80 KT 90 MPH 36H 28/0000Z 27.0N 68.8W 90 KT 105 MPH 48H 28/1200Z 28.5N 69.4W 100 KT 115 MPH 60H 29/0000Z 30.2N 69.5W 105 KT 120 MPH 72H 29/1200Z 31.9N 69.0W 105 KT 120 MPH 96H 30/1200Z 35.6N 65.9W 90 KT 105 MPH 120H 31/1200Z 40.5N 56.9W 75 KT 85 MPH $$ Forecaster Kelly/Pasch

93L looking good this morning

This longer length loop really shows the organizational trend. Far more consolidated, with continuing vigorous convection. I don't think a LLC is directly under the center of the convective canopy, but this 1) looks further organized than the guidance suggests 2) currently lies in a highly favorable environment for further development, hence the 70/90% odds 3) has a greater chance of staying offshore given the consistent convective bursts to the east of the Yucatan This is a good look for an invest. The more organized it becomes this weekend the more resilient it will be to shear/dry air in the Gulf. Really have to see if land interaction can disrupt this trend.

Should be a hurricane at 11am. Hurricane models get this to MH status in a few days and the NHC endorsed that in its 5am update.

First light

Closed eye per recon. Product: Air Force Vortex Message (URNT12 KNHC)Transmitted: 26th day of the month at 11:57ZAgency: United States Air ForceAircraft: Lockheed WC-130J Hercules with reg. number AF97-5306Storm Name: FranklinStorm Number & Year: 08 in 2023 (flight in the North Atlantic basin)Mission Number: 11Observation Number: 05 ( See all messages of this type for this mission. )A. Time of Center Fix: 26th day of the month at 11:38:10ZB. Center Fix Coordinates: 23.20N 66.54WB. Center Fix Location: 333 statute miles (536 km) to the N (355°) from San Juan, Puerto Rico (U.S.).C. Minimum Height at Standard Level: 3,000m (9,843ft) at 700mbD. Minimum Sea Level Pressure: 989mb (29.21 inHg)E. Dropsonde Surface Wind at Center: From 50° at 7kts (From the NE at 8mph)F. Eye Character: ClosedG. Eye Shape & Diameter: Circular with a diameter of 18 nautical miles (21 statute miles)H. Estimated (by SFMR or visually) Maximum Surface Wind Inbound: 49kts (56.4mph)I. Location & Time of the Estimated Maximum Surface Wind Inbound: 9 nautical miles to the SSW (211°) of center fix at 11:35:30ZJ. Maximum Flight Level Wind Inbound: From 308° at 42kts (From the NW at 48.3mph)K. Location & Time of the Maximum Flight Level Wind Inbound: 21 nautical miles (24 statute miles) to the SW (221°) of center fix at 11:32:00ZL. Estimated (by SFMR or visually) Maximum Surface Wind Outbound: 68kts (78.3mph)M. Location & Time of the Estimated Maximum Surface Wind Outbound: 13 nautical miles (15 statute miles) to the NE (39°) of center fix at 11:42:00ZN. Maximum Flight Level Wind Outbound: From 133° at 57kts (From the SE at 65.6mph)O. Location & Time of the Maximum Flight Level Wind Outbound: 14 nautical miles (16 statute miles) to the NE (41°) of center fix at 11:42:30ZP. Maximum Flight Level Temp & Pressure Altitude Outside Eye: 9°C (48°F) at a pressure alt. of 3,049m (10,003ft)Q. Maximum Flight Level Temp & Pressure Altitude Inside Eye: 14°C (57°F) at a pressure alt. of 3,047m (9,997ft)R. Dewpoint Temp & Sea Surface Temp: Not AvailableS. Fix Determined By: Penetration, Radar, Wind and PressureS. Fix Levels (surface & flight level centers within 5nm of each other): Surface and 700mbT. Navigational Fix Accuracy: 0.02 nautical milesT. Meteorological Accuracy: 3 nautical milesRemarks Section: Maximum Flight Level Wind: 57kts (~ 65.6mph) which was observed 14 nautical miles (16 statute miles) to the NE (41°) from the flight level center at 11:42:30Z Maximum Flight Level Temp: 14°C (57°F) which was observed 6 nautical miles to the SSW (203°) from the flight level center