WxWatcher007

Let's do a quick deep dive on two of the five areas I highlighted yesterday--the disturbance in the Gulf of Mexico and Invest 90L. Gulf Disturbance I tagged yesterday's disturbance with 60% odds of eventual development when it was moving through the Bahamas and Florida, and now that it has reached the eastern Gulf I am even more bullish given today's satellite appearance. To be clear: this one needs some work and there's not a lot of time to do it. That said, the quick convective burst and indications that it's trying to form into a low makes it worth an invest tag to me. The environment overall looks favorable. There is very little shear present and that should remain the case as this moves west. Once again, we obviously know that the SSTs are not an issue, with literally some of the warmest water on Earth in the Gulf and a deep reservoir of OHC. Moisture looks solid not great, but given where the vorticity is trying to tighten and the convective bursts we're seeing, I don't think drier continental air is a limiting factor yet. We'll see. I think time is the greatest limiting factor here, but kind of like Hanna a few years ago, if this can get a good organizational burst today/tonight that could bode well for another named storm to develop as this enters the western Gulf and the TX/Mexico border early Tuesday. Again, not a lot of time, and nothing can happen until there's a legitimate low, which we do not have yet. Invest 90L This one is worth watching IMO. I think it is a contender to be the strongest system of the season thus far in the long range. Recon is expected to sample this later today and I believe they will find a tropical storm. In the visible you can clearly see a low level circulation, but there are some significant issues keeping this from taking off. There is very evident northerly shear that is pushing the convective burst that should be over the center further south. That's how we can see that there is a clear LLC In addition to the shear, there is dry air to the north that is causing issues as well. I don't expect dry air to be as big an issue long term, but for now the shear/dry air combo is keeping this one in check. This would be taking off IMO without the combination, because the convective bursts that we have seen have been persistent and intense--really allowing this to be as organized (and it's not terribly organized) as it is now. I'm intrigued by the long range because it looks like the environment after a potential landfall near DR/Haiti will be conducive for additional development. In fact, both the GFS and Euro operational guidance has this becoming a strong system in the open Atlantic. I still think we need to wait for this to cross the Antilles back into the Atlantic before fully understanding the long term future of 90L, but overall, troughing is going to lift this north into the Atlantic. How far west this gets before that turn seems important, and certainly what other impulses in the Atlantic exist ahead of 90L, because both the Euro and GFS have a ridge over the CONUS and have trended toward a subtropical ridge building in to drive what is likely a named storm by then northward. Throw in any kind of trough in there to either cause a weakness between the ridges to go OTS, or in the case of a cutoff in the east change steering toward land, and we have a very complex forecast. Given the complexity of the forecast long range, and the shift west we've seen in ensemble guidance as 90L continues to develop, this one is certainly worth a close eye in Bermuda, Atlantic Canada, and to a lesser extent the US east coast. A lot of tracking to do this week.

Yes, and a lot of that has to do with the hostility in the basin created by shear and SAL/subsidence, but keep in mind that the overwhelming majority of big ACE producers occur after Aug 20. Like almost 90% I think. That's why these next two weeks are critical IMO to what kind of season we have overall. Have to produce.

We have Emily in the eastern MDR Tropical Storm Emily Discussion Number 1 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL072023 1100 AM AST Sun Aug 20 2023 The large area of low pressure we have been monitoring over the last several days to the west of the Cabo Verde Islands has finally developed a well-defined circulation per recently received satellite wind data. In addition, the scatterometer wind data also suggest the system has developed a robust wind field on its northern semicircle, with ASCAT-B/C both showing believable wind retrievals in the 40-45 kt range. Therefore, advisories are being initiated on Tropical Storm Emily this morning with maximum sustained winds of 45 kt, which is in good agreement with the latest 1200 UTC TAFB Dvorak fix. The estimated motion of the tropical storm is slowly off to the west-northwest, at 300/9 kt. Over the next several days, Emily should maintain a general west-northwestward motion as it remains steered by a low-level ridge centered to its north. A gradual turn to the north is anticipated after Emily becomes a remnant low, rounding the southern periphery of this subtropical ridge. The track guidance is in fairly good agreement on this scenario, and the initial track forecast lies in between the simple and corrected consensus aids. Emily might already be near its peak intensity, as vertical wind shear is expected to substantially increase over the cyclone in the next 24-36 hours as it remains embedded in a fairly dry mid-level environment. While it is possible a bit more intensification occurs today, it seems more likely the system will soon succumb to the increasingly hostile environment over the next several days. Both the GFS and ECMWF suggest Emily will cease to produce organized convection in about 48 hours, and the official intensity forecast shows it becoming a post-tropical remnant low at that time. There is some chance the environment becomes more favorable again in 4-5 days, but a regeneration scenario will not be shown in the official forecast for now. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 20/1500Z 19.5N 38.8W 45 KT 50 MPH 12H 21/0000Z 20.3N 39.9W 45 KT 50 MPH 24H 21/1200Z 20.9N 41.6W 40 KT 45 MPH 36H 22/0000Z 21.5N 43.6W 35 KT 40 MPH 48H 22/1200Z 22.5N 45.8W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 60H 23/0000Z 23.6N 47.7W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 72H 23/1200Z 25.1N 49.0W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 96H 24/1200Z 29.8N 50.3W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 120H 25/1200Z 36.0N 51.0W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW $$ Forecaster Papin

After languishing in the MDR, we have Tropical Storm Emily. Tropical Storm Emily Discussion Number 1 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL072023 1100 AM AST Sun Aug 20 2023 The large area of low pressure we have been monitoring over the last several days to the west of the Cabo Verde Islands has finally developed a well-defined circulation per recently received satellite wind data. In addition, the scatterometer wind data also suggest the system has developed a robust wind field on its northern semicircle, with ASCAT-B/C both showing believable wind retrievals in the 40-45 kt range. Therefore, advisories are being initiated on Tropical Storm Emily this morning with maximum sustained winds of 45 kt, which is in good agreement with the latest 1200 UTC TAFB Dvorak fix. The estimated motion of the tropical storm is slowly off to the west-northwest, at 300/9 kt. Over the next several days, Emily should maintain a general west-northwestward motion as it remains steered by a low-level ridge centered to its north. A gradual turn to the north is anticipated after Emily becomes a remnant low, rounding the southern periphery of this subtropical ridge. The track guidance is in fairly good agreement on this scenario, and the initial track forecast lies in between the simple and corrected consensus aids. Emily might already be near its peak intensity, as vertical wind shear is expected to substantially increase over the cyclone in the next 24-36 hours as it remains embedded in a fairly dry mid-level environment. While it is possible a bit more intensification occurs today, it seems more likely the system will soon succumb to the increasingly hostile environment over the next several days. Both the GFS and ECMWF suggest Emily will cease to produce organized convection in about 48 hours, and the official intensity forecast shows it becoming a post-tropical remnant low at that time. There is some chance the environment becomes more favorable again in 4-5 days, but a regeneration scenario will not be shown in the official forecast for now. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 20/1500Z 19.5N 38.8W 45 KT 50 MPH 12H 21/0000Z 20.3N 39.9W 45 KT 50 MPH 24H 21/1200Z 20.9N 41.6W 40 KT 45 MPH 36H 22/0000Z 21.5N 43.6W 35 KT 40 MPH 48H 22/1200Z 22.5N 45.8W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 60H 23/0000Z 23.6N 47.7W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 72H 23/1200Z 25.1N 49.0W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 96H 24/1200Z 29.8N 50.3W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 120H 25/1200Z 36.0N 51.0W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW $$ Forecaster Papin

Yeah, it looks like it's close if not already a TC. We'll see what recon finds later.

Looks like a busy day. Will do a quick look around the basin but I think 98L and 90L should become TCs today. Both may honestly be there already. Recon expected to sample 90L later.

Interesting Product: Air Force Vortex Message (URPN12 KNHC)Transmitted: 20th day of the month at 5:25ZAgency: United States Air Force Aircraft: Lockheed WC-130J Hercules with reg. number AF97-5305 Storm Name: HilaryStorm Number & Year: 09 in 2023 (flight in the Northeast Pacific basin)Mission Number: 4Observation Number: 04 ( See all messages of this type for this mission. )A. Time of Center Fix: 20th day of the month at 4:54:40ZB. Center Fix Coordinates: 26.17N 114.67WB. Center Fix Location: 129 statute miles (208 km) to the SSW (197°) from Guerrero Negro, Baja California Sur, Mexico.C. Minimum Height at Standard Level: 2,866m (9,403ft) at 700mbD. Minimum Sea Level Pressure: 974mb (28.77 inHg)E. Dropsonde Surface Wind at Center: From 35° at 24kts (From the NE at 28mph)F. Eye Character: Not AvailableG. Eye Shape: Not AvailableH. Estimated (by SFMR or visually) Maximum Surface Wind Inbound: 47kts (54.1mph)I. Location & Time of the Estimated Maximum Surface Wind Inbound: 47 nautical miles (54 statute miles) to the NE (35°) of center fix at 4:41:00ZJ. Maximum Flight Level Wind Inbound: From 125° at 77kts (From the SE at 88.6mph)K. Location & Time of the Maximum Flight Level Wind Inbound: 56 nautical miles (64 statute miles) to the NE (38°) of center fix at 4:38:30ZL. Estimated (by SFMR or visually) Maximum Surface Wind Outbound: 42kts (48.3mph)M. Location & Time of the Estimated Maximum Surface Wind Outbound: 64 nautical miles (74 statute miles) to the SW (221°) of center fix at 5:12:00ZN. Maximum Flight Level Wind Outbound: From 315° at 55kts (From the NW at 63.3mph)O. Location & Time of the Maximum Flight Level Wind Outbound: 87 nautical miles (100 statute miles) to the SW (223°) of center fix at 5:18:00ZP. Maximum Flight Level Temp & Pressure Altitude Outside Eye: 11°C (52°F) at a pressure alt. of 3,051m (10,010ft)Q. Maximum Flight Level Temp & Pressure Altitude Inside Eye: 9°C (48°F) at a pressure alt. of 3,050m (10,007ft)R. Dewpoint Temp (collected at same location as temp inside eye): 9°C (48°F)R. Sea Surface Temp (collected at same location as temp inside eye): Not AvailableS. Fix Determined By: Penetration, Radar, Wind and PressureS. Fix Level: 700mbT. Navigational Fix Accuracy: 0.02 nautical milesT. Meteorological Accuracy: 1 nautical mileRemarks Section: Maximum Flight Level Wind: 77kts (~ 88.6mph) which was observed 56 nautical miles (64 statute miles) to the NE (38°) from the flight level center at 4:38:30Z Maximum Flight Level Temp: 12°C (54°F) which was observed 43 nautical miles (49 statute miles) to the NNE/NE (34°) from the flight level center

970.8mb extrapolated

I see no reason why this can’t continue organizing in the near term. I mentioned the other day that the environment was conducive for intense convective activity and we’re seeing it so far. That’ll probably help in the next few days. The environment has a decreasing influence of SAL and if anything I think the shear just to the north is looking like the detrimental factor to significant development in the Caribbean.

987.3mb extrapolated pressure so far with peak FL winds of 82kt and SFMR of 84kt.

Recon currently investigating Hilary. Should be helpful to understand the rate of decay (of winds).

98L and 90L look close to TDs, maybe 98L a little ahead.

I know, I’m probably hyping too Canada has been on a heater lately.

Vegas is without a long range radar? It’s down on RadarScope.

No. It’ll be just as warm January 19th.

90L is one of those worth watching long range. There’s a ton of chaos in the basin and I think we’re really going to need to wait until whatever crosses the Antilles back into the Atlantic to have a good sense of what’ll happen. Obviously always favor OTS yada yada.

If I had more time I could have went deeper and talked MJO

Just a super early nonsensical thought: even though we’re almost certainly going to see troughing, I think we’ll need to see how this looks after crossing the Antilles into the Atlantic to have a good sense of if it gets picked up and swept out to sea or left behind. Given the anomalous troughing out east this year, and the parade of waves (which I think increases odds this never touches land after the Antilles) I think this will be complicated for a while.

It’s beautiful here. Love it.

Near the Windward Islands (AL90): A broad area of low pressure has formed near the Windward Islands, shower and thunderstorm activity has become better organized since yesterday. Some additional development of this system is likely and a tropical depression could form by early next week while this system moves westward to west-northwestward at 10 to 15 mph, across the Lesser Antilles and over the eastern and central Caribbean Sea. Regardless of development, heavy rainfall is possible over portions of the Windward Islands during the next couple of days. Interests in the eastern and central Caribbean should monitor the progress of this system. * Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...40 percent. * Formation chance through 7 days...medium...60 percent.

Great to see you post. Hope all is well with you and your family.

Alright folks, it's just about that time to ring the bell. After a dead period late July through most of August, right on cue the basin is alive. With a caveat. Let's start here. Despite our dead period, we've been pretty active for a Nino, which means anything near normal activity. In fact, today is the first day we go BN ACE this season according to Brian McNoldy. I only say this because now is really when the rubber needs to meet the road in determining what kind of season we have, which I'll talk about more when I do my peak season forecast. For now, though, let's take our first look around the basin in quite some time. There are five areas to watch. The basin is active in the sense that there are legitimate disturbances out there--the basin is filled with them--but the overall environment for development, and certainly high end development, remains relatively hostile. Let's go one by one. Western Atlantic Orange--WxW007 Development Odds: 60% I've been watching this one for a while now, and while it still needs a lot of work, the guidance continues to believe that this will consolidate enough over the Gulf to allow for some modest development. We all know the water in the Gulf is warm, and actually some of the warmest on the globe this year. However, I think the availability of moisture in the Gulf, and just enough of a window with lower shear will allow for development before a landfall in the western Gulf coast near the TX/Mexico border. Time is a factor. Let's see how coherent this disturbance is as it passes Florida. Invest 90L--Development Odds: 70% I am bullish on this disturbance, and I have been for a while. While there was a debate on whether the monsoon trough would even break down, the western end of the trough remained convectively active. As the MT broke apart into three distinct areas, this one remained south, which is critical because it has thus far evaded the overwhelming influence of SAL and shear. It's not great, but it's just enough IMO, a theme of this post as we look around this part of the basin. The models may be playing catch up with this one, but let's see what the trends are today. Last night's intense convective burst was helpful IMO. This is one to watch in the Antilles, because as it moves into the Caribbean if it isn't sheared we should see stronger convection as it organizes some. Long term fate is uncertain. Invests 98L & 99L--Development Odds: 50% The water vapor says it all. These two were the leaders in the clubhouse, but you have everything you need to know by my combining the two in a quick paragraph. They're too north and they're struggling in a hostile environment. 98L is about to get sandblasted by shear and SAL. While 99L looks like it has a well established LLC, it's sheared and it's only going to get worse. If I had to place bets, the NHC designates 98L eventually but it's a minimal TS at best. Meh. New Wave on the Block--Development Odds 50% Another wave is poised to exit Africa, and it is another vigorous one. With 98L and 99L likely to be sacrificial waves at the end of the day, this may pave the way for this wave (or a subsequent one) to have better development odds, provided they don't get decapitated by shear. Even then, these strong waves that are forecast to come off into September may find a more favorable environment west if the SAL and TUTT shear persists in the MDR. Some guidance is latching onto this idea, but we'll see.

Alright folks, it's just about that time to ring the bell. After a dead period late July through most of August, right on cue the basin is alive. With a caveat. Let's start here. Despite our dead period, we've been pretty active for a Nino, which means anything near normal activity. In fact, today is the first day we go BN ACE this season according to Brian McNoldy. I only say this because now is really when the rubber needs to meet the road in determining what kind of season we have, which I'll talk about more when I do my peak season forecast. For now, though, let's take our first look around the basin in quite some time. There are five areas to watch. The basin is active in the sense that there are legitimate disturbances out there--the basin is filled with them--but the overall environment for development, and certainly high end development, remains relatively hostile. Let's go one by one. Western Atlantic Orange--WxW007 Development Odds: 60% I've been watching this one for a while now, and while it still needs a lot of work, the guidance continues to believe that this will consolidate enough over the Gulf to allow for some modest development. We all know the water in the Gulf is warm, and actually some of the warmest on the globe this year. However, I think the availability of moisture in the Gulf, and just enough of a window with lower shear will allow for development before a landfall in the western Gulf coast near the TX/Mexico border. Time is a factor. Let's see how coherent this disturbance is as it passes Florida. Invest 90L--Development Odds: 70% I am bullish on this disturbance, and I have been for a while. While there was a debate on whether the monsoon trough would even break down, the western end of the trough remained convectively active. As the MT broke apart into three distinct areas, this one remained south, which is critical because it has thus far evaded the overwhelming influence of SAL and shear. It's not great, but it's just enough IMO, a theme of this post as we look around this part of the basin. The models may be playing catch up with this one, but let's see what the trends are today. Last night's intense convective burst was helpful IMO. This is one to watch in the Antilles, because as it moves into the Caribbean if it isn't sheared we should see stronger convection as it organizes some. Long term fate is uncertain. Invests 98L & 99L--Development Odds: 50% The water vapor says it all. These two were the leaders in the clubhouse, but you have everything you need to know by my combining the two in a quick paragraph. They're too north and they're struggling in a hostile environment. 98L is about to get sandblasted by shear and SAL. While 99L looks like it has a well established LLC, it's sheared and it's only going to get worse. If I had to place bets, the NHC designates 98L eventually but it's a minimal TS at best. Meh. New Wave on the Block--Development Odds 50% Another wave is poised to exit Africa, and it is another vigorous one. With 98L and 99L likely to be sacrificial waves at the end of the day, this may pave the way for this wave (or a subsequent one) to have better development odds, provided they don't get decapitated by shear. Even then, these strong waves that are forecast to come off into September may find a more favorable environment west if the SAL and TUTT shear persists in the MDR. Some guidance is latching onto this idea, but we'll see.