WxWatcher007

Time limited image below but it’s clearly trying to reorganize as the eye is becoming more defined with a more symmetrical CDO. It has been extraordinarily resilient in the face of moderate shear present and dry air lurking. Perhaps some frictional convergence, missing the mountains of Jamaica, and over modeled shear helping right now. Even when the SFMR came down earlier, the winds above the deck were very strong.

5:00 PM EDT Wed Jul 3 Location: 17.5°N 77.6°W Moving: WNW at 20 mph Min pressure: 959 mb Max sustained: 140 mph

It has certainly weakened from peak, but it’s really something how resilient this has been.

How much rain have you had in the last few weeks?

Crazy hot spot so far this season

Latest VDM Product: Air Force Vortex Message (URNT12 KNHC)Transmitted: 3rd day of the month at 15:58ZAgency: United States Air ForceAircraft: Lockheed WC-130J Hercules with reg. number AF97-5306Storm Name: BerylStorm Number & Year: 02 in 2024 (flight in the North Atlantic basin)Mission Number: 14Observation Number: 29 ( See all messages of this type for this mission. )A. Time of Center Fix: 3rd day of the month at 15:12:40ZB. Center Fix Coordinates: 17.03N 76.10WB. Center Fix Location: 83 statute miles (133 km) to the SE (146°) from Kingston, Jamaica.C. Minimum Height at Standard Level: 2,752m (9,029ft) at 700mbD. Minimum Sea Level Pressure: 956mb (28.23 inHg)E. Dropsonde Surface Wind at Center: From 115° at 8kts (From the ESE at 9mph)F. Eye Character: Open in the southwestG. Eye Shape & Diameter: Circular with a diameter of 20 nautical miles (23 statute miles)H. Estimated (by SFMR or visually) Maximum Surface Wind Inbound: 107kts (123.1mph)I. Location & Time of the Estimated Maximum Surface Wind Inbound: 8 nautical miles to the W (271°) of center fix at 15:10:00ZJ. Maximum Flight Level Wind Inbound: From 27° at 102kts (From the NNE at 117.4mph)K. Location & Time of the Maximum Flight Level Wind Inbound: 12 nautical miles (14 statute miles) to the WNW (283°) of center fix at 15:09:00ZL. Estimated (by SFMR or visually) Maximum Surface Wind Outbound: 100kts (115.1mph)M. Location & Time of the Estimated Maximum Surface Wind Outbound: 7 nautical miles to the ESE (119°) of center fix at 15:15:00ZN. Maximum Flight Level Wind Outbound: From 206° at 106kts (From the SSW at 122.0mph)O. Location & Time of the Maximum Flight Level Wind Outbound: 10 nautical miles (12 statute miles) to the ESE/SE (124°) of center fix at 15:16:00ZP. Maximum Flight Level Temp & Pressure Altitude Outside Eye: 9°C (48°F) at a pressure alt. of 3,043m (9,984ft)Q. Maximum Flight Level Temp & Pressure Altitude Inside Eye: 18°C (64°F) at a pressure alt. of 3,050m (10,007ft)R. Dewpoint Temp (collected at same location as temp inside eye): 10°C (50°F)R. Sea Surface Temp (collected at same location as temp inside eye): Not AvailableS. Fix Determined By: Penetration, Radar, Wind, Pressure and TemperatureS. Fix Level: 700mbT. Navigational Fix Accuracy: 0.02 nautical milesT. Meteorological Accuracy: 1 nautical mileRemarks Section: Maximum Flight Level Wind: 130kts (~ 149.6mph) which was observed 12 nautical miles (14 statute miles) to the NE (45°) from the flight level center at 13:52:00Z

Still disorganized, but this is the best 96L has looked in days.

http://tropic.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic.php From there you can look at a ton of resources in each basin and at the invest/storm level.

Signs of life is a good descriptor If it can stay behind the ribbons of drier air and shear it could very well have a shot later on. As you know, sometimes these seedlings are robust enough structurally that they just need a little runway to take off. I thought it had that in the central Atlantic but it didn’t work out.

It looked like it briefly but recovered fast. The microwave images I posted in the other thread were incredible.

http://arctic.som.ou.edu/tburg/products/realtime/tropical/

It’s fascinating, but probably shouldn’t be surprising, that Beryl is coming off its peak slowly. I think the prior ERC helped it become a lot more inertially stable than it would’ve been with a smaller core. The resilience is just a sight to behold. Look at these microwave passes and note how quickly the core rebounds after earlier degradation.

I agree. FL winds are still big time.

All of those really high SFMR look rain contaminated to me. Even the unflagged 158kt wind comes with a rain rate of 2.12”/hr.

Like tennis volleys these models

18z spaghetti models shifted back south, reiterating just how tricky this Gulf forecast is going to be.

Texas is definitely still on the table. There is very high uncertainty on the models for 5 days out.

It should weaken, but it won’t be anywhere close to what happened to Chris.

12z Hurricane models (HWRF, HMON, HAFS A & B) have adjusted a bit stronger with the close approach to Jamaica tomorrow. Somewhat more mixed signal for the Yucatan.

I think the changes broadly on the guidance in the last 24 hours are significant, but the run to run variations should give everyone pause on future intensity and track. This is still a lot of spread for the Gulf.

These are significant shifts on the guidance in track and intensity

12z GFS is more robust, with a blunted level of weakening before Jamaica impacts and the Yucatán, and much more intensification relative to 06z in the Gulf before landfall Sunday. North trend continues.