WxWatcher007

Yeah you could tell yesterday that the trend was upward. Once a low develops, it starts to intensify fairly quickly for how little time it has over water. I still think subtropical, but honesty if those model depictions verify it looks like it could become tropical right before landfall. 8am 1. Western Atlantic: A trough of low pressure located several hundred miles east of the Florida peninsula is producing a large area of disorganized showers and thunderstorms. A non-tropical low pressure system is expected to form within this area by early Friday, and this system could acquire some subtropical characteristics on Friday or early Saturday while it moves generally northward toward the coast of North Carolina. Regardless of subtropical development, this low is likely to bring gusty winds to gale force, heavy rain, and high surf to portions of the Southeast and Mid-Atlantic United States on Friday and into the weekend. Additional information on this system, including storm and gale warnings, can be found in High Seas Forecasts and products from your local National Weather Service office. * Formation chance through 48 hours...low...30 percent. * Formation chance through 7 days...medium...40 percent.

It has…struggled…

I disagree in part. Nino definitely lost during the last four weeks, but the MDR is more hostile than it was even a week ago, particularly with SAL. Not enough to keep that wave from developing, but it may stunt its development for a bit. I do think we’re transitioning to the western Caribbean and SE coast as we approach October but that’s not saying much because that’s climo. Will waves keep rolling off, yeah, but development is probably going to be more delayed or halted altogether, especially if shear picks up in the eastern Caribbean.

Canadian was pretty high impact. GFS as you said kind of slid everything south but it’s close. There’s still a lot of spread on this low’s intensity and progression for what’s essentially a short range forecast. It’s hard to lean against persistence—what rain event have we missed since July—but that high may keep us dry.

Euro is the most strung out, while the GFS trend the last day has been a stronger low Friday/Saturday. Any organization enhances the rainfall risk and coastal wind potential. There’s still a lot of spread in rainfall and overall organization of this low across guidance for a 72h forecast.

The trend on the GFS at least has been for a stronger low to develop off the coast. Despite the currently low development odds by the NHC, I think this one has a good shot of becoming a subtropical storm Friday or Saturday. Euro is much more strung out, and we’ll see if that trends toward the GFS given the convection off the SE coast. Anything that develops will probably be messy, especially if it’s subtropical, but any organization enhances the rain risk and coastal wind potential.

Hydro violence from Ophelia on the GFS?

Yeah it does have a shot. I have a rooting interest against it though lol. My peak forecast is spot on so far.

No. Homebrew is the only option for the east coast as MDR season winds down. May have opportunities in before Oct 20.

It would be meh’ed from Hatteras to dissipation

Looks like Nigel with its tractor tire eye will struggle to get to MH status. We're watching a lemon off the SE coast and cherry in the MDR. The MDR is slowing down for the absurd pace of the last four weeks as expected, and my forecast is looking excellent so far. Probably turning to homebrew season now. WxWatcher007 Peak Season Forecast (Aug 20-Oct 20) Named Storms: 13 (10) Hurricanes: 6 (5) Major Hurricanes: 3 (3) Emily, Franklin (MH), Gert, Harold, Idalia (MH), Jose, Katia, Lee (MH), Margot (H), Nigel (H)

06z GFS had a more consolidated low that tracked offshore, rather than some type of rainy landfall in the Carolinas. The consolidated low is an outlier, but interesting to see.

Love the tractor tire hurricanes. Probably keeps this below MH status too.

This is incredible. I had no idea!

I know I’ve become another Torch Tiger on this subforum, but it’s only fine if it’s not a furnace. We’ve had plenty of precip in recent years but there’s been little to no cold when it matters. Here in the torch lands of CT at least.

My relationship with winter ended ugly last year. More pressing is the Saints giving up 8 to a Panthers offense that couldn’t get a TD for 58 minutes Bad beat.

Went to meh very quickly. Shades of January.

Pouring and we’re just getting started

In the other thread I think. The signal has been there for days.

RI forecast gone wrong. You just never know with these.

Yeah I think maybe a low end subtropical/tropical storm at best? Maybe a larger area of strong winds too with a gradient.

GFS has the homebrew rainer Sunday

Oh you’re going all the way I imagine a tropical home on the coast of Brazil