WxWatcher007

It really is.

These tend to shuffle east up here near landfall. I don’t discount that. Doesn’t matter if this continues going west the next few days though.

1) Still a western outlier 2) Watch for the last minute ticks east

Thread really taking off now lol. Agree with @Quincy and I was alluding to the same earlier. Large and well organized wind field currently, with a symmetric presentation of the wind field on the GFS and Euro on closest approach. It’s obviously weaker from a peak wind perspective at our latitude, but the size and organization of the wind field set the stage for a potentially significant coastal event (and inland Maine/NS), with other inland areas at risk for more impacts if this continues westward. 925 wind repost—that is far from a collapsing system just off the deck as it meanders north.

That’s quite a bit west, wow. Time to break out the good stuff. Latest error guidance from UAlbany. There are still some fairly significant errors at medium to short range. The GFS and Euro meanwhile, have gone in different directions in recent days. The difference is that lately the GFS has ticked west from its easternmost solution. Doesn’t mean it’ll adopt what the Euro is trying to do, but each successive cycle becomes important because the errors in the magnitude of the steering pattern should diminish—even if we’re tracking 20-40 mile shifts at close range.

We’re going to be watching 20-40 mile ticks on guidance inside 48 at least with this one. Impacts will be more or less locked in NS, ME, and the Cape by then, but for the inland folk, those miles will matter.

Days and days to go.

West or east, it’s going to be an event up there.

Multi day trend though has been for the Euro/Ensembles to be west. It’s still an outlier relative to all the other guidance, which is why the NHC track is what it is, but it’s totally within the realm of reasonable outcomes IMO for the center of Lee to make a very close approach to the Cape.

My head is there too right now. A lot to figure out as you said. More impactful obviously if this takes a more Euro vs GFS track. I think ET is going as soon as this crosses the northern wall of the Gulf Stream.

@tunafish I'm poking at some of the posters that seem to forget Maine is New England. In all seriousness though, it looks impactful up there. Euro or GFS. To Ryan's earlier point, even with a further east track there could be some impacts into a greater part of New England than you'd otherwise see with this track, which could still shift. You can already see it setting up. Lee has used its periods of reorganization to organize an increasingly massive wind field. At its peak, Lee had hurricane force winds extend 45 miles and tropical storm winds extend 140 miles. In the last three days, with numerous attempts at an ERC, the wind field has expanded to the following: Sunday 5pm: 45 miles/175 miles Monday 5pm: 75 miles/185 miles Today 5pm: 125 miles/240 miles Look at the expansion the last 24 hours! You don't see that often. It's only getting larger. Expect more expansion with 1) the continuing ERC structure, 2) the eventual turn north, and 3) with the inevitable extratropical transition. The last two MW passes haven't been great, but you can see how it's just working with a massive eye and poised to keep expanding. Looking at recon, a few things stand out. The first is how large the FL wind field has hurricane force winds. I think that tells me that this won't be some hollowed out system at our latitude. There's going to be strong winds over an expansive area just off the deck. Now, to Tip and others' point, how the ET transition happens will determine what gets to the ground. The second thing to watch is the pressure fall. We're still seeing pressure falls, albeit gradual, despite the lack of surface winds. It plays into the point above, but I think this is more stable in structure than we'd otherwise see. The result is a truly massive wind field that will lead to significant coastal issues, high surf (especially in Nova Scotia). Rain and wind will depend on track, but let's look at the two "camps". These are 925mb winds. Tried pulling 950mb winds from Plymouth, but couldn't figure it out lol. The GFS, which is pretty east and in line with the current NHC track, at 12z Saturday Obviously this isn't mixing all the way down, but it's probably a mess for Maine and NS, and even across New England you're getting some stiff breezes. Any ticks west with a strong wind field aloft increases the gusts at least coastal ENE will see. Look at the Euro. It has already been talked about, but with rain this week and more tomorrow, it could be messy for us southerners with a further west track. Even if it doesn't, to Ryan's point, you can see in later frames how winds stay elevated aloft on the backside of Lee. Maine seems locked for an impactful event along with Nova Scotia, but outside of that area, even though it doesn't look high end as currently modeled, there are signs that there could be some decent impacts for part of the area.

Maine is Canada. It's a miss for New England. Sorry.

Love it out there. Good luck.

It looks the 12z GEFS are further west generally. I guess we’re just going to be doing the west east jumps until the messenger shuffle at the end.

That’s a valuable insight. I’d say that if Lee doesn’t landfall as a hurricane, it doesn’t make the official return period, but I guess I’m just making the case that this is closer than what we usually track—some named storm that never gets within 500 miles or whatever on any ensemble consistently. We’ve actually had some TS hits and close calls recently in NE.

I’m not talking about the posting, I’m just level setting. It’s about 250 miles as the crow flies between the Cape and SW tip of Nova Scotia. 4-5 days out that’s still a lot of room for movement just looking at the average NHC basin error. West or east. Whether it ends up boring in or backyards or not that’s pretty close at this range.

It may very well slide east and impact NS (where we have posters btw) giving NE nothing but rough seas, but this isn’t like it’s sliding a thousand miles east and that was the D10 prog, D7 prog, and D5 prog and never moved. Our return time for anything interesting is what it is for a reason, but we can near miss just like Charleston, Miami, Tampa, New Orleans, and Houston do all the time too. Close calls with plenty of uncertainty is a hallmark of tropical no matter where you are, and this is a legitimate close call.

Wrong. It’s not black or white hit or ghost chase. Not with this one. Franklin/Idalia sure. We wouldn’t say that in winter for most of what pops and it’s definitely not true in tropical when you’re looking at ensemble and op runs inside 100 hours.

Let’s see what 12z EPS does. It’s one of those things where if it’s the op without meaningful ensemble support you can toss, but with that much support you toss but kind of hold the trash can open wondering if you made a mistake. Will’s comment is evergreen. 100-150 west miles for interesting. It can happen at this range, but a compromise as it currently stands doesn’t get it done. Coastal NS in trouble.

You can see wonky stuff with the op runs, but the ensembles are pretty split. EPS at 06z is even more west than they were before. At least in terms of western members. It’s an odd outlier.

Yeah I thought the model performance as a whole was better than usual but the reality is more messy.

Yup

Really fascinating stuff here OFCL=NHC HFAI=HAFS-A HFBI=HAFS-B HWFI=HWRF HMNI=HMON CTCI=COAMPS-TC

Agree with the other ERC comments, and it’s also true that sometimes rather than fully contracting and trying to reach a new peak in winds, a storm will use its reorganization to expand the wind field. That seems to be the case here. It did get close to C4 again at one point, but then the wind field just kept expanding. It’s dramatically larger than before.

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