WxWatcher007

Recon is canceled today, and despite a pretty well defined low level circulation there needs to be more convection (I know you know this). Shear is dropping and it’s over the Gulf Stream, so while the window for genesis is closing it’s still open for now.

That’s what I’m thinking. That’ll be an interesting insurance claim.

That’s helpful, thanks. So basically: 1) It’s pretty clear that if this verified or even if we saw heights of 594-597dm we’d have a significant heat wave (while the heights are historic to near historic in their own right) but by itself it’s not enough for a truly historic 3 day 99+ high heat wave because as you said the other day it’d take time for the heights to expand and fill (?). That results in a sort of step ladder increase in daily highs so rather than 99, 99, 101 it’s more 92, 93, 95. 2) For historic potential, we really should see anomalously warm 850mb temperatures eject from the SW to our area. So far, guidance has been lukewarm on balance about it. This is a snapshot of Wednesday. Obviously the nuclear 850s in the desert SW would moderate our way but we need ~22-25°C for the big temps and can get them on our historic days. 3) For now some of the guidance ejects the highest 850s to our west, but the euro does try to pull in some higher numbers later in the week. 4) GFS still brings big heat on lower 850s, but that’s more dubious as over mixing could limit true high temperature potential. Is that the gist of it? Do we also care about 700 or 925mb temps?

105 here is an easy punt a week out but it’s becoming harder to imagine how we escape something high end. 97/71 for 2-3 maybe 4 days is still big time. (As you mentioned earlier)

Where does that rank historically?

Just seeing both ensembles with a mean 597 overhead in June is incredible. How likely would it be that the ridge is significantly weaker in amplitude?

WPC placed the area in rapid drought onset risk. Didn’t know that was a thing.

Definitely. The panels for next Friday are just absurd lol. Good luck with three consecutive June days here over 100.

GFS is an absolute furnace next week.

BDL will put up a 90 today. HFD at 84 currently and my house is 83.2° after a high of 85.

Euro pretty aggressive with 90L and the BoC potential. Has 90L a TC tomorrow and develops a quick hitter in the BoC a few days from now.

Pseudo PRE?

I know I've mentioned how this is likely an extended window for TC genesis, but I am impressed by just how many opportunities there may be for something to spin up. The monsoon gyre/CAG is giving models fits. Of course, not everything will develop, but even if we get 2 NS that'd put us about a month ahead of the normal season pace. 1. Invest 90L Models still differ on whether this develops/develops as a TC, but there is a legitimate window however narrow. Now offshore, there's convection that's still getting sheared a lot from whatever "center' there is. Being over warm waters and the Gulf Stream eventually could help this organize enough into a TC, but it will need to tighten some. Persistent convection should help. 2. BoC Area of Interest This is another legitimate candidate for a NS. The signal remains strong across guidance on some type of development in the next week. Unlike 90L, which is fighting time and a hostile environment, if there is enough vorticity in the BoC the environment should be much more favorable with reduced shear, high SSTs, and the concave nature of the BoC promoting spin. 3. Secondary Gulf Potential Not sure how else to put this, but with so much spin in the Gulf/western Caribbean, the guidance is possibly identifying a separate area that develops out of the broader gyre that is separate from whatever happens in the BoC. This is a current 850mb vorticity plot, but that ribbon of vorticity over the CAG region has been persistent and is likely to continue. From that, anything can pop, especially if we see a tropical wave introduced eventually. The GEFS are a little hot, but with the Euro starting to show potential it's worth watching. 4. SW Atlantic I'm still stuck on this area haha. There seems to be a signal that something gets trapped under the massive ridge next week, and as it gets steered west it has a chance to organize. Worth nothing more than a single casual eye right now. By June standards, this is really active. I'd say the first two have a legitimate shot, while we need another day or two to see how real the signal for #3 is, and #4 is just long range speculation at this time.

I have a friend that lives near KFLL and they say the flooding is insane. Even with the breaks there is nowhere for the water to go.

Both are absolutely brutal lol

We’re neutral

Normal wx can definitely be good too. We really easily forget what normal really means with all of the blowtorches of recent years.

3k NAM is robust Friday.

I went down the rabbit hole Truly strange world

Euro was surprisingly strong too although almost certainly post tropical by then.

I’m not sure that’ll ever be possible around here… In other news, our friends in Atlantic Canada should keep an eye on the potential (post)tropical strike the Euro has this weekend.

90L is developed pretty aggressively again on the 12z Euro. Even our friends in Atlantic Canada may need to watch for an unusually strong post-tropical (if it even develops) system based on this track. As for the BoC, I guess we’ll see. The ridge next week is absolutely massive, but any weakening could certainly allow for moisture further north. Mexico desperately needs the rain.

Euro and GFS were back to a more aggressive development signal last night and this morning as well. Shear still looks really tough, but even on the guidance you can see the low organizing some as it heads off NE. I think 90L overperformed yesterday in spinning up a concise mesolow with persistent but sheared deep convection. It’ll be interesting to see what happens once that broader low level spin leaves FL later. There is plenty of vorticity for something to spin up. Whether it becomes tropical remains to be seen. Meanwhile, the Bay of Campeche signal has become stronger as the ensembles try to keep the region in a lower shear environment when development becomes possible in the coming days. That area has a good shot of triggering TC genesis imo, and now has a NHC lemon. It’s not really there except occasionally on long range op runs, but I still wouldn’t sleep on the third area I highlighted in the western Atlantic ~10-12 days from now either. Euro toyed with that last night again. If folks are wondering why so much is getting posted…this is a really active signal for June. I’d be surprised if we didn’t get at least 1 NS out of this window.