WxWatcher007

I know I've mentioned how this is likely an extended window for TC genesis, but I am impressed by just how many opportunities there may be for something to spin up. The monsoon gyre/CAG is giving models fits. Of course, not everything will develop, but even if we get 2 NS that'd put us about a month ahead of the normal season pace. 1. Invest 90L Models still differ on whether this develops/develops as a TC, but there is a legitimate window however narrow. Now offshore, there's convection that's still getting sheared a lot from whatever "center' there is. Being over warm waters and the Gulf Stream eventually could help this organize enough into a TC, but it will need to tighten some. Persistent convection should help. 2. BoC Area of Interest This is another legitimate candidate for a NS. The signal remains strong across guidance on some type of development in the next week. Unlike 90L, which is fighting time and a hostile environment, if there is enough vorticity in the BoC the environment should be much more favorable with reduced shear, high SSTs, and the concave nature of the BoC promoting spin. 3. Secondary Gulf Potential Not sure how else to put this, but with so much spin in the Gulf/western Caribbean, the guidance is possibly identifying a separate area that develops out of the broader gyre that is separate from whatever happens in the BoC. This is a current 850mb vorticity plot, but that ribbon of vorticity over the CAG region has been persistent and is likely to continue. From that, anything can pop, especially if we see a tropical wave introduced eventually. The GEFS are a little hot, but with the Euro starting to show potential it's worth watching. 4. SW Atlantic I'm still stuck on this area haha. There seems to be a signal that something gets trapped under the massive ridge next week, and as it gets steered west it has a chance to organize. Worth nothing more than a single casual eye right now. By June standards, this is really active. I'd say the first two have a legitimate shot, while we need another day or two to see how real the signal for #3 is, and #4 is just long range speculation at this time.

I have a friend that lives near KFLL and they say the flooding is insane. Even with the breaks there is nowhere for the water to go.

Both are absolutely brutal lol

We’re neutral

Normal wx can definitely be good too. We really easily forget what normal really means with all of the blowtorches of recent years.

3k NAM is robust Friday.

I went down the rabbit hole Truly strange world

Euro was surprisingly strong too although almost certainly post tropical by then.

I’m not sure that’ll ever be possible around here… In other news, our friends in Atlantic Canada should keep an eye on the potential (post)tropical strike the Euro has this weekend.

90L is developed pretty aggressively again on the 12z Euro. Even our friends in Atlantic Canada may need to watch for an unusually strong post-tropical (if it even develops) system based on this track. As for the BoC, I guess we’ll see. The ridge next week is absolutely massive, but any weakening could certainly allow for moisture further north. Mexico desperately needs the rain.

Euro and GFS were back to a more aggressive development signal last night and this morning as well. Shear still looks really tough, but even on the guidance you can see the low organizing some as it heads off NE. I think 90L overperformed yesterday in spinning up a concise mesolow with persistent but sheared deep convection. It’ll be interesting to see what happens once that broader low level spin leaves FL later. There is plenty of vorticity for something to spin up. Whether it becomes tropical remains to be seen. Meanwhile, the Bay of Campeche signal has become stronger as the ensembles try to keep the region in a lower shear environment when development becomes possible in the coming days. That area has a good shot of triggering TC genesis imo, and now has a NHC lemon. It’s not really there except occasionally on long range op runs, but I still wouldn’t sleep on the third area I highlighted in the western Atlantic ~10-12 days from now either. Euro toyed with that last night again. If folks are wondering why so much is getting posted…this is a really active signal for June. I’d be surprised if we didn’t get at least 1 NS out of this window.

Second area I highlighted in the Bay of Campeche is now given a lemon by the NHC. That area has a real good shot of producing a NS imo.

That was really incredible. Everything we tried to do outside got washed out. What made it all the more anomalous was that none of it had to do with a tropical system or its remnants.

Siesta Key and Sarasota really under the gun as convection continues to fire and get sheared east of the apparent low pressure center.

The area I highlighted a few hours ago is actually pretty robust now. Just very small and right offshore.

90L will have a narrow chance for weak development off the SE coast, but the signal for something in the BoC has grown a bit since my post yesterday. Not a bad look on the ensembles. Edit: adding EPS

LOL this place cracks me tf up

Despite the shear pushing the convection away (preventing any significant organization), there’s a pretty solid low level spin just SW of Tampa. You can see it on radar and visible imagery.

No surprise, but the shear is just absurd across the much of the western Atlantic.

Look at that anomaly up the coast..

Makes me feel good when an area I tag early eventually gets highlighted by the NHC lol. 90L is getting sheared terribly but the convection is quite strong. Some of the high res guidance is ugly in the coming days with regard to rainfall.

Well we got the lemon and invest.

I've been alluding to this window of favorability and I have a little time to explain what I've meant. The overall setup over the next 10 days or so is a bit tricky. For for this early in the season, it's our first real window for some type of development. What makes this interesting is that the guidance after waffling for about a week or so are now highlighting a broad window with areas to casually watch imo. Let's start by talking about the main features associated with this potential window opening. -Currently we have combined with diffluent flow we have an anomalous plume of tropical moisture streaming north into the Gulf of Mexico around a ridge nosing into the Caribbean. As this happens, we have broad cyclonic flow over the western Caribbean and Central America. Not quite declared a CAG from what I've seen, but that's possible at some point within the next week or so. Nothing spectacularly strong, but you just need a window for a seedling to develop. The odds of TC genesis also end up slightly elevated given how exceptionally warm this region is this early in the season. Let's turn to three areas. 1) Gulf of Mexico/SE US Coast (3-7 Days) This is the most immediate area of interest. The signal for organization and possible TC genesis, however muted, has existed for this region first. The signal has bounced around too. The GFS originally took some of the energy ejected out of the Caribbean and tried to organize a low in the Gulf. For a while it was very aggressive with the signal but has settled to a more climatologically favored broad and moisture laden low in the eastern Gulf. The Canadian has been further west, and the Euro was barely on board until recently. Not a surprise given how weak the signal overall has been at times. However, the signal in the last day has diverged a bit, with the Euro taking the ejecting energy across Florida and developing a low, perhaps (sub)tropical, off the SE coast before going harmlessly out to sea. Today the GFS has tried moving toward this solution. EPS GEFS This is an interesting short term shift, but it may very well may be rooted in a realistic seed. Both the GFS and especially Euro take an area of vorticity currently in the Gulf across the FL Peninsula midweek before some type of development. The Euro is most aggressive. Although it is highly sheared, the small area of vorticity has held on and tightened a bit today. Let's not overstate it--it doesn't look like much. But again, we watch for seedlings this time of year that can become something more organized eventually. Let's see what it looks like tomorrow and the coming days. One thing to watch is if it gets trapped under a ridge that will bring heat to much of the Mid-Atlantic and Northeast next week but that's just speculation given the latest GFS run. The Euro develops a modest low that gets swept out to sea in straightforward fashion. 2) BoC Low (6-9 Days) This has been a consistent signal the last day or so by the Euro/EPS, and the GFS/GEFS are on board to an extent. Whether this comes from an EPAC disturbance or something that rolls up as a result of being on the Atlantic side of a CAG remains to be seen. I'd bet on any vorticity finding itself in the Bay of Campeche developing provided it has sufficient time. 3) SW Atlantic (10+ Days) Not worth much ink, but as an Atlantic ridge flexes in the long range we may want to watch if there's a sharp wave or piece of a trough that breaks off and tries to develop. Again, not worth much for now.