WxWatcher007

After last year, I presume a cut can happen any pattern configuration. I know in unlikely to get it but honestly just a normal temp winter would be wonderful. I’m tired of torches. Warm maxes and warm lows.

Yes! Keep the tradition going.

WHY IS AGHOLOR ON THE HANDS TEAM

We rain. Autism Speaks Walk was chilly but it felt good. Feels like everybody did a lap and left haha.

Yep, that’s it.

Beautiful evening as fall returns

Deep summer out here before clouds rolled in

Agree. If this ends up a Euro/GFS compromise we’re cooked.

Aside from the depiction above, I think we know how this goes. Catpaws in the valley would be a win as a minor accumulation in the elevated spots would ring in November nicely.

Yeah, I think the first ten days of November are our period, and I actually like the potential related to that reinforcing cold around or after Election Day more than 11/1. Obviously too early to know what this means for December with the evolving El Niño, but I remain inclined to believe that winter down here doesn’t start in earnest until mid-January with an AN temp December and CT on the wrong side of a gradient pattern.

Completely agree. Everybody knows how I feel about winter, but aside from any snow potential just getting a more winter like pattern—even if transient—will be a welcome change of pace.

Sorry for your loss. Will be in my prayers.

Sunday is going to be a shock to the system to many. From upper 70s Saturday to mid 40s Sunday on the GFS.

Cloudy here. 67.9°

There is absolutely zero doubt in my mind that parts of that region saw legitimate category five wind and impacts based on what I’ve seen so far.

We’d take 10” of sand given the last few years.

B-I-N-G-O

Delayed but not denied on our October big dog streak?

Look at that nuclear hybrid turn up the coast on the clown range GFS. Absolute beaut from Caribbean tropical (which is a legit signal) with a perfectly timed and located progression up the coast.

Unedited from yesterday

Yep. No indication whatsoever that this would become even a hurricane 24 hours out.

Love to see it. Little taste of winter as we move into November. Honestly, it’s hard to believe at least for me how fast this year has gone.

Wow Hurricane Otis Discussion Number 12 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP182023 1000 PM CDT Tue Oct 24 2023 A nightmare scenario is unfolding for southern Mexico this evening with rapidly intensifying Otis approaching the coastline. Satellite images show that Otis has continued to intensify, with Dvorak Data-T estimates between 130-145 kt during the past few hours. The initial wind speed is set to 140 kt as a blend of these values, making Otis a Category 5 hurricane. Otis has explosively intensified 95 kt during the past 24 hours, a mark only exceeded in modern times by Patricia in 2015. Otis should maintain category 5 status before the hurricane makes landfall near the Acapulco area overnight or early on Wednesday. The only significant change to mention to the track forecast is that it has been shifted to the right due to a recent wobble to the east and the latest model trends, and a general north-northwest motion at about 8 kt is anticipated through landfall. Rapid weakening is anticipated after landfall, and Otis should dissipate tomorrow night over the higher terrain of Mexico. This is an extremely serious situation for the Acapulco metropolitan area with the core of the destructive hurricane likely to come near or over that large city early on Wednesday. There are no hurricanes on record even close to this intensity for this part of Mexico. Key Messages: 1. Otis is forecast to be a potentially catastrophic Category 5 hurricane when it reaches the southern coast of Mexico early Wednesday. Life-threatening hurricane-force winds are expected in portions of the Hurricane Warning area with catastrophic damage expected. 2. A potentially catastrophic storm surge is expected to produce life-threatening coastal flooding near and to the east of where the center makes landfall. Near the coast, the surge will be accompanied by large and destructive waves. 3. Heavy rains from Otis will continue to impact areas of southwest Mexico this week. This rainfall will produce flash and urban flooding, along with mudslides in areas of higher terrain. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 25/0300Z 16.1N 99.7W 140 KT 160 MPH 12H 25/1200Z 17.3N 100.1W 105 KT 120 MPH...INLAND 24H 26/0000Z 18.0N 100.5W 45 KT 50 MPH...INLAND 36H 26/1200Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Blake