WxWatcher007

59.5° and rain. Feels like March for sure.

.52

It’s just the dumbest season of them all.

It’s pretty wild. A month’s worth of rain plus in 24 hours basically.

HREF is eye opening on both the mean and PMM.

Windy with warm rain to cold rain here IMO

To be fair I was talking about 00z lol

GFS has it a bit windier for the cape. We’re cooked but maybe a little more accumulating snow in NW CT and some backside flakes (Fraud Five alert) elsewhere.

Pretty aggressive GFS run.

I have put a gas can next to my Christmas tree just in case.

Because people want snow?

It also happened last year, and that was historic as well. I don’t believe anybody should be panicking right now. Not sure why there’s so much apprehension at this point if folks are just looking at this season. For now I’m just proceeding with caution on the evolution this month, which I do think is important.

Agree. Someone start it up.

I think the other thing is—if we’re being real a lot of folks only care about winter, and a very specific kind of winter. Snow can only happen in a few weeks relative to the calendar year so the clock is ticking and anxiety rises immediately once the climo window opens.

Real winter up there. Nice.

Sounds like that one rocked. I’ll take a tropical grinch.

It’s always good to see snowflakes. Hopefully the first of many snow opportunities that materialize for us all.

HRRR ftw. More flakes today than most of last winter.

I haven’t been part of that conversation but my .02. It seems clear to me that if precipitation in a storm of yore fell at 32.0° and precipitation in a storm today fell at 32.0° both (assuming the column above isn’t torched) would be snow. But obviously that’s not really the question. If it’s snowing at 32 it’s a marginal track to begin with. It’s unequivocally warmer, and high latitude warming probably has an effect on the overall setup, i.e. the amount of blocking, cold source aloft and at the surface, making it more likely than not that a similar surface low track produces a different outcome for a variety of reasons. Not always of course, but we probably see more marginal misses today than we did in the past which had marginal misses as well of course. I am in no way saying that it’ll never snow again in a marginal situation, but it’s an interesting question to ask.

Not worth much but the HRRR has a nice little “streamer” through central CT early this afternoon. On an island though. At least it feels like winter.

Flurries

Yeah, it’s a shame. That’s a real missed opportunity.

Nammy has flakes even into eastern CT. Pretty funny to see that Thursday impulse get absolutely shredded as it dives into New England. That’s a more frustrating thing to witness than tracking torches two weeks into the future on models.

There’s some truly funny stuff on the internet I didn’t know about dall-e until just now