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WxWatcher007

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Everything posted by WxWatcher007

  1. WxWatcher007
    Looks more ragged on radar now. We’ll see if it can tighten again.
  2. WxWatcher007
    Watching that too. Want to see if it can fully wrap upshear. If so, that could lead to another convective burst to push it over the top. Even if it doesn’t, the frictional convergence nearing landfall could allow the center to contract and become more symmetrical. HAFS A & B show this right at landfall.
  3. WxWatcher007
    Euro and GFS are night and day for something barely 12 hours out
  4. WxWatcher007
    It was pretty special. Best sunset is still as Dorian was approaching NC. Never seen anything like it before or since. Edit: this is also from last week lol
  5. WxWatcher007
    Tropics sunsets are the best. This is from Lee last week.
  6. WxWatcher007
    Hurricane watch up for NC coastline
  7. WxWatcher007
    This is looking really interesting…
  8. WxWatcher007
    Probably need hurricane watches maybe even warnings up for part of NC given the recon data.
  9. WxWatcher007
    These are some fast extrapolated pressure falls. 984.6mb down from 986.8 at last pass.
  10. WxWatcher007
    Really nice animation of the center starting to become covered by convection as it crosses the Gulf Stream. Definitely looking more tropical and likely continuing to intensify.
  11. WxWatcher007
    My fault, I see it now. Thanks.
  12. WxWatcher007
    That was at 925mb. The surface reading was at 58kt. The extrapolated pressure falls between passes is pretty good.
  13. WxWatcher007
    AMEN Homebrew is homebrew for a reason. I think he is disappointed this could become a hurricane without an Ian like eyewall lol. Appreciate the updates as I’m mostly mobile right now.
  14. WxWatcher007
    Recon is a little more impressive than I thought it’d be.
  15. WxWatcher007
    I’d need to see a little more sampling, but this one does look close to hurricane strength per recon…
  16. WxWatcher007
    I’m trying to hold off on using heat. At least until October.
  17. WxWatcher007
    I can imagine the complaining and meh’ing with this one
  18. WxWatcher007
  19. WxWatcher007
    Uninstalled yesterday. It was time.
  20. WxWatcher007
    Taking off within the hour and should be there early afternoon.
  21. WxWatcher007
    They may have to wait for recon. There’s no convection at the center and there’s still more baroclinic influence IMO than tropical influence. Still intensifying though.
  22. WxWatcher007
    If it does go tropical, it’ll be right before landfall when the center can tighten and pressure is lowest. This is a more subtropical look currently, as expected.
  23. WxWatcher007
    It’s going to be sheared all the way to the end, but what you’re looking for as this approaches landfall about 24 hours from now is whether it can establish an inner core to take it close to C1. For that to happen, you need convection over the center, not adjacent to it. We don’t have that right now despite the intensification trend. Impacts remain the same generally though.
  24. WxWatcher007
    I went back and looked and it seems pretty similar to the euro/gfs?
  25. WxWatcher007
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