WxWatcher007

B-I-N-G-O

Delayed but not denied on our October big dog streak?

Look at that nuclear hybrid turn up the coast on the clown range GFS. Absolute beaut from Caribbean tropical (which is a legit signal) with a perfectly timed and located progression up the coast.

Unedited from yesterday

Yep. No indication whatsoever that this would become even a hurricane 24 hours out.

Love to see it. Little taste of winter as we move into November. Honestly, it’s hard to believe at least for me how fast this year has gone.

Wow Hurricane Otis Discussion Number 12 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP182023 1000 PM CDT Tue Oct 24 2023 A nightmare scenario is unfolding for southern Mexico this evening with rapidly intensifying Otis approaching the coastline. Satellite images show that Otis has continued to intensify, with Dvorak Data-T estimates between 130-145 kt during the past few hours. The initial wind speed is set to 140 kt as a blend of these values, making Otis a Category 5 hurricane. Otis has explosively intensified 95 kt during the past 24 hours, a mark only exceeded in modern times by Patricia in 2015. Otis should maintain category 5 status before the hurricane makes landfall near the Acapulco area overnight or early on Wednesday. The only significant change to mention to the track forecast is that it has been shifted to the right due to a recent wobble to the east and the latest model trends, and a general north-northwest motion at about 8 kt is anticipated through landfall. Rapid weakening is anticipated after landfall, and Otis should dissipate tomorrow night over the higher terrain of Mexico. This is an extremely serious situation for the Acapulco metropolitan area with the core of the destructive hurricane likely to come near or over that large city early on Wednesday. There are no hurricanes on record even close to this intensity for this part of Mexico. Key Messages: 1. Otis is forecast to be a potentially catastrophic Category 5 hurricane when it reaches the southern coast of Mexico early Wednesday. Life-threatening hurricane-force winds are expected in portions of the Hurricane Warning area with catastrophic damage expected. 2. A potentially catastrophic storm surge is expected to produce life-threatening coastal flooding near and to the east of where the center makes landfall. Near the coast, the surge will be accompanied by large and destructive waves. 3. Heavy rains from Otis will continue to impact areas of southwest Mexico this week. This rainfall will produce flash and urban flooding, along with mudslides in areas of higher terrain. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 25/0300Z 16.1N 99.7W 140 KT 160 MPH 12H 25/1200Z 17.3N 100.1W 105 KT 120 MPH...INLAND 24H 26/0000Z 18.0N 100.5W 45 KT 50 MPH...INLAND 36H 26/1200Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Blake

I think the lack of snow cover made it all the more impressive. Imagine that cold shot with a fresh pack. Deep winter days of yore.

I’m squarely in late fall mode and will do a review of my peak season forecast soon but it looks like there’s some higher end potential in the Caribbean in the next two weeks.

Absolutely unreal—to be taking place and to have everything miss it 24 hours out.

I’ll do a review soon but there’s exceptional RI taking place in the EPAC.

I know I’m in the minority, but given the epic blowtorches we’ve seen recently—including all of last January—I found the near Christmas blast and Montreal Express in February to be awesome. Again in the minority here, but winters here are far too fickle to put snow as the only thing worth caring about. That’s a recipe for misery. Of course snow is first, but I’ll take any winter—ice, pingers, and cold, especially big dog cold.

I was just coming in to post. It’s all time RI in that part of the basin and an all time bust. Broke the RI record from Patricia and the 24 hour forecast from models were dangerously horrific. I know from personal experience that the ones you miss haunt you as much if not more than the joy that comes with the successful chases.

What a day. Favorite season.

Low of 35.8°

Average would be a win. Having the season not reside from Feb 15-March 15 would be a massive win.

I was in Hartford for that one. Moved to DC in late 2013. All timer. Lived in DC for a lot of those. Moved back to CT after that 2017-18 season Another big dog will arrive eventually. I really just want to see a classic megalopolis mauler that makes everyone happy.

Impressive in its own right. This isn't all in SNE but since 2013-14 I personally can only recall 12+ imby from 12/16/20 and the 2016 Blizzard when I lived in DC. Maybe one got close in that epic 2013-14 season in DC. That remains my favorite winter.

That’s how it is now down here in the hinterlands half a decade (minus a near normal year) and counting.

Climo makes cold just about useless through at least the first third to half of December too… There’s nothing wrong with normal. That’s about a 61 high/40 low here. Today is glorious. Crisp morning and beautiful afternoon.

I’ll enjoy a few days of warmth but I prefer the step downs. Normal would be totally fine until Dec 1 for me.

Low of 37.6°

We’re on to winter?

Overperformer so far. .85