Just like the 00z Euro, I’d need to see more from other guidance to really see it as anything other than an outlier. For reasons posted above though the ceiling is pretty high, even if it doesn’t quite work out in the end.
Plenty of reason for caution. You’re right about there being less wiggle room down there of course. I still like 5-10 broadly after seeing 06z stay away from that mess at 00z.
I can’t see the 06z Euro yet but yeah. If after that disaster run the EPS and then the 06z GFS collapsed that’s one thing. They didn’t. So far that dry torch run looks like an outlier.
We’ll see what 12z does but it’s easy to understand that a lot of backsides will be tight until the warnings are up and snow boards are covered given how historically bad it’s been here. We’ve found a multitude of ways to fail.