WxWatcher007

HRRR ftw. More flakes today than most of last winter.

I haven’t been part of that conversation but my .02. It seems clear to me that if precipitation in a storm of yore fell at 32.0° and precipitation in a storm today fell at 32.0° both (assuming the column above isn’t torched) would be snow. But obviously that’s not really the question. If it’s snowing at 32 it’s a marginal track to begin with. It’s unequivocally warmer, and high latitude warming probably has an effect on the overall setup, i.e. the amount of blocking, cold source aloft and at the surface, making it more likely than not that a similar surface low track produces a different outcome for a variety of reasons. Not always of course, but we probably see more marginal misses today than we did in the past which had marginal misses as well of course. I am in no way saying that it’ll never snow again in a marginal situation, but it’s an interesting question to ask.

Not worth much but the HRRR has a nice little “streamer” through central CT early this afternoon. On an island though. At least it feels like winter.

Flurries

Yeah, it’s a shame. That’s a real missed opportunity.

Nammy has flakes even into eastern CT. Pretty funny to see that Thursday impulse get absolutely shredded as it dives into New England. That’s a more frustrating thing to witness than tracking torches two weeks into the future on models.

There’s some truly funny stuff on the internet I didn’t know about dall-e until just now

Yeah I’m glad I went. Never know which storm is the storm of the season. Ended up in the right spot.

Do I get paid for this?

My pension is excellent and retirement is good.

They're out and about because they're sniffing the +4-8F December pattern. Really hope you guys get some good stuff up there.

It’s amazing to me how the same people can be around here for so long and still panic the same way every single year.

I had 1.7” total in March. Hindsight is obviously 20/20 but from the moment we squandered last December’s pattern my small patch of valley land was never close to in the game. It’s all good though. New season is upon us. Not worth carrying those emotions into a different year. I really like your outlook and the general consensus that this isn’t a traditional mega Nino evolving. I feel cautiously optimistic that this’ll be a closer to normal year than the recent stretch.

I saw what was coming and canceled early last year. This year however I think anything here imby before January 15 is gravy. No reason for panic or concern. Really just want decent upper level progression and an advisory event or two in December. Always been a type of signal for that time period but expectations are tempered.

Tropical is my truest passion, and this year I had my best peak season forecast yet. A few slop storms got me (RINA), but where it mattered, calling out H and MH and the overall progression, I ended up doing an excellent job. WxWatcher007 Peak Season Forecast (Aug 20-Oct 20) Named Storms: 13 (15) Hurricanes: 6 (6) Major Hurricanes: 3 (3) Emily, Franklin (MH), Gert, Harold, Idalia (MH), Jose, Katia, Lee (MH), Margot (H), Nigel (H), Ophelia, Philippe, Rina, Sean, Tammy (H)

Welp, time to close the book. This was my most successful peak season forecast yet. Will be hard to replicate in the future. WxWatcher007 Peak Season Forecast (Aug 20-Oct 20) Named Storms: 13 (15) Hurricanes: 6 (6) Major Hurricanes: 3 (3) Emily, Franklin (MH), Gert, Harold, Idalia (MH), Jose, Katia, Lee (MH), Margot (H), Nigel (H), Ophelia, Philippe, Rina, Sean, Tammy (H)

With the 2023 Atlantic Hurricane Season ending in a few hours, it's time to hand in the final grade. The forecast above called for a very active period between August 20-September 20, followed by a sharp drop off in Atlantic activity and things essentially being closed out by October 20th. That was about as spot on as anyone could get, with a high end period of activity during that month and then a decline as conditions became more unfavorable. There were 5 NS after September 20, but only one became a hurricane, on the last day of my forecast period no less. One major hurricane did make landfall in the continental US, Idalia in FL at the end of August. To be spot on with the number of Hurricanes and Major Hurricanes is a win that will be hard to replicate. WxWatcher007 Peak Season Forecast (Aug 20-Oct 20) Named Storms: 13 (15) Hurricanes: 6 (6) Major Hurricanes: 3 (3) Emily, Franklin (MH), Gert, Harold, Idalia (MH), Jose, Katia, Lee (MH), Margot (H), Nigel (H), Ophelia, Philippe, Rina, Sean, Tammy (H) Grade: A

It’s frustrating that the more frequent updates of models have disrupted apparent biases and consistency, but without question IMO they are still an enormously valuable and reliable tool. We wouldn’t be running to watch and do analysis of (some of) them every six hours if their skill was little more than a coin flip.

This coming Monday. The panels posted are for Monday afternoon and evening. Like Will said though, this has bounced around so much on the guidance it’s really not worth doing anything other than analyzing the synoptic trend.

That would be a fun Monday even down here.

Impressed by the cold so far today. Still below freezing at 31.4° and WC is in the 20s across CT.

I know you’ve posted before, but what’s the best annual snowfall climo map you’ve seen for SNE?