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WxWatcher007

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Everything posted by WxWatcher007

  1. WxWatcher007
    That was at 925mb. The surface reading was at 58kt. The extrapolated pressure falls between passes is pretty good.
  2. WxWatcher007
    AMEN Homebrew is homebrew for a reason. I think he is disappointed this could become a hurricane without an Ian like eyewall lol. Appreciate the updates as I’m mostly mobile right now.
  3. WxWatcher007
    Recon is a little more impressive than I thought it’d be.
  4. WxWatcher007
    I’d need to see a little more sampling, but this one does look close to hurricane strength per recon…
  5. WxWatcher007
    I’m trying to hold off on using heat. At least until October.
  6. WxWatcher007
    I can imagine the complaining and meh’ing with this one
  7. WxWatcher007
  8. WxWatcher007
    Uninstalled yesterday. It was time.
  9. WxWatcher007
    Taking off within the hour and should be there early afternoon.
  10. WxWatcher007
    They may have to wait for recon. There’s no convection at the center and there’s still more baroclinic influence IMO than tropical influence. Still intensifying though.
  11. WxWatcher007
    If it does go tropical, it’ll be right before landfall when the center can tighten and pressure is lowest. This is a more subtropical look currently, as expected.
  12. WxWatcher007
    It’s going to be sheared all the way to the end, but what you’re looking for as this approaches landfall about 24 hours from now is whether it can establish an inner core to take it close to C1. For that to happen, you need convection over the center, not adjacent to it. We don’t have that right now despite the intensification trend. Impacts remain the same generally though.
  13. WxWatcher007
    I went back and looked and it seems pretty similar to the euro/gfs?
  14. WxWatcher007
  15. WxWatcher007
    Hurricane models for whatever they’re worth with a broad low, have future Ophelia get sub 990mb before a NC landfall. All in agreement in a heavy rain event in SNE.
  16. WxWatcher007
    Problem is it’s September not January
  17. WxWatcher007
    We hope, though my concern is that we flip this in November.
  18. WxWatcher007
    I was hopeful too, but deep down I knew hydro was coming back. This is made all the more impressive by the fact that this is the first heavy rain event here that’s directly influenced by tropical. In 2021 and a lot of the other big rainfall years tropical had a heavy influence.
  19. WxWatcher007
    18z
  20. WxWatcher007
    I could hear a "PLEASE GOD" coming from the west after you posted that. Stay safe.
  21. WxWatcher007
    Yup, rain's the story here. If we can get that axis of heavy rain over us Saturday or Sunday watch out. I'm at 7.55" since September 8. Unreal how wet it has been...my lawn is having trouble draining lol.
  22. WxWatcher007
    Probably would remain unless it became clear in time that development wasn’t happening.
  23. WxWatcher007
    The first SHIPS forecast was eye opening and I think there’s a good chance of the dynamics I posted about earlier leading to development of an inner core. Time is the limitation here, I think.
  24. WxWatcher007
    30% IMO 100%
  25. WxWatcher007
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