beavis1729

Ha ha…not often you see a 108 degree gradient.

Dallas was near 90 today, and it’s currently -18 in Bottineau ND. Not bad.

I wasn’t tuned in to the drama back then…could have been worse than I imagined. Others probably know better. Not trying to dig up gremlins from the past - just remembering the good times.

We need to bring BowMe, Geos, and daddylonglegs back to help the mojo in here. The good old days of 2013-14. And… ’copter

Do people really think that DJF temps right on the immediate lakeshore aren’t warmer than ORD, especially in the 1800s when there was no UHI at the present-day location of ORD? Or, that 4 of the 6 warmest winters in history all occurred in a 7-year span?? That points to the observation site being a factor. You know, how Alek celebrates going past Thanksgiving without a freeze, seemingly year after year? Of course it’s different in MAM, due to the lake breeze.

I’m not saying we throw them out…or that those 1800s winters weren’t mild.. but it’s well known that average temps in downtown Chicago are materially warmer than ORD, especially earlier in the winter due to marine influence (even with the increase in UHI at ORD over time). If the DJF temps in the 1800s were measured at present-day ORD, they would have been colder (especially at night)…especially since there was no UHI at this location back then. Regardless of these details, I’m most upset about the fact that there were mild winters in the 1800s. I keep hoping these recent obnoxiously mild winters are a fluke…but unfortunately they don’t seem to be.

I would throw out (or at least asterisk) the warm DJFs from the 1800s, as the official measurements were influenced heavily by the downtown and/or lakeside location. Similar to Logan Airport for Boston. That’s why 5 of the top 6 warmest DJFs occurred in the late 1800s. It’s not as if all of those winters were warmer than some of our recent clunkers, apples to apples. Regardless, this list highlights how bad the winter climo is for downtown Chicago. It’s already bad enough inland…

This event looks to mimic the infamous January 1999 storm, but 150 miles further north.

Thank you sir. What timeframe are you focusing on…weeks 1-2, 3-5, or both? Unfortunately recent op runs (FWIW) seem to hinting at a strong warm up next week. Would be great if the weeklies were going against this idea.

FYP

I look at it differently. Ideally, I would like 4 months of winter (11/15 to 3/15), as we don’t have nearly enough of it. To me, the idea of “winter” means a generally consistent and dependable period with snow on the ground, with frozen lakes and ponds. Currier and Ives stuff. Doesn’t mean every single day has to have high temp below freezing…but winter is such a short and up-and-down season in my neck of the woods. For instance, we may get 2-3” of snow tomorrow, but then it will melt in a couple days. And we’ve had bare ground for much of the season so far. That drives me crazy. If it were November or March, no problem…but I prefer a reliable wintry “feel” in DJF. Then let the warm mongers enjoy the other 9 months. We can get good wintry events and periods imby, but it’s not consistent enough. Unfortunately, you need to live at 45N or further north in the Midwest for that. So, I’m not really ready for spring until 3/15. By that point, the daylight gets so long that you can’t really fight the season anymore. Our climo (even in northern IL) isn’t great for winter…so we might as well root for as much of it as possible.

I relate to your frustration. For me personally, it's not that exciting since it's still winter the last I checked...and any snow that falls will melt in two days. It's fine for this to happen on 11/15 or 3/15, but not mid-Feb. And, the heaviest (while not 100% certain) will likely be north of mby. The pattern next week could get interesting, but unfortunately we're getting to the point in the season where you really need a great pattern to continue in order to keep the snow around. I know my reply is drenched in cynicism and pessimism, and I applaud your optimism. But that's what years and years of horrible winters do to you.

Yeah, unfortunately the key words are something and trying. 12z Canadian op has a crazy temp gradient at hour 180…80s in TX, 20s here, subzero in MN.

Yeah, sounds about right.

I do - because South Bend has only had 6 days with 6"+ of snow cover...and they were all in November. That's almost hard to believe when you've had 47" of snow for the season...but it's the same culprit again - way too many thaws. Like the rest of us south of 45N, they've essentially had no winter during DJF. This is example #50,000 which shows that our climo problem is temps, not snowfall...and that snow totals don't always correlate to the tenor of a winter.

Ha, ran it from my basement but the GPS fix was off a bit. One pixel in SE MN showed 90”.

I can relate to that - and I'm 48, not getting any younger. Thankfully I have a stable job and am in fairly good health, so I have the luxury of caring about first-world problems. I guess when you love something a lot, you get emotionally invested. Probably not the smartest or most logical thing to do - but a lot of my job is logical and analytical, so I need an outlet for the emotional side. At ORD - for the period 12/1/22 to 2/15/23 (based on this week’s forecast), only 38% of these days will have a high temp colder than 35F. That is ridiculous. How can it be winter unless at least 80% of these days…and ideally more…are colder than 35F. It's hard to be ok with this. Even if it were as low as 70%, that would be understandable (yet still disappointing)…but 38% is unacceptable. It illustrates my main point throughout all of this - south of 45N, we’re shockingly far away from winter should be – it’s laughable and frustrating to no end. Not even close. It would be great if it wasn't ever above freezing in January, and if it never rains during DJF. If these things occur rarely, that’s fine…despite my wishes. In that case, it's ok to reduce standards a bit, and be somewhat realistic. But at some point, it becomes blatant grade inflation and unacceptable. Let’s just reduce our standards so far that winter only needs to be colder than fall. Hooray – we win!! It sucks - and I hate pretending it's ok, because then it feels like an admission that I've given up on Mother Nature and the hope & beauty of winter. Am I a weenie for thinking it shouldn’t rain more than a day or two during the winter? If so, guilty as charged…but to me, that’s a perfectly reasonable wish. I’m not suggesting we need to see 200” of snow every season with blizzards and brutal cold day after day. But it sucks to see puddles during winter – it’s not natural. Even though the 2022-23 winter has definitely been Exhibit A of crap, this general theme has essentially been true for the past 8 winters. It eats at you when it's long-lasting. Sure, we’ve seen some “wintry periods” during these years…but that’s not what the winter season is supposed to represent. Yes, the good periods are great, and they are welcome and appreciated…but the rest of the time winter seems to go MIA. It can’t be all or nothing from week to week. On August 8th, no one is worried about the EPO, PDO, AMO, ENSO state, etc. 99 out of 100 times, you know it will be warm on August 8th. Yes, there could be the fluke Pinatubo summer, or an occasional rain-cooled day (which will still be humid)…but no one thinks about the million things that need to go right. This is how winter should be too – it’s only 3 months out of the year. Let it be sacred. It’s understandable for November and March/April to be up and down – but not DJF. But that adds another problem - because DJF have been so bad recently, there’s a huge need to make up for it in November, March, and April. It shouldn’t need to be this way – but what else are you going to do? Assuming we love winter (which is mainly why we’re here in the first place?), I think we have every right to complain and be sad about what is going on. Then, add that the NWS or the public doesn’t care about our crappy winters – it’s just insult to injury. I hate seeing AFDs which say “thankfully, the cold temps will be short-lived”. Boo fooking hoo – it’s cold during the winter. Not that the NWS (or the public) should be expected to care…but since they don’t, we need to take up the cause here. There’s nowhere else to vent. The irony is that, in northern WI, it’s the reverse. The public actually gets very upset when winter isn’t occurring, just like me. Amazing – they enjoy winter and being outside to experience it! That’s another topic entirely...

Touche, and fair enough - I probably picked a bad example. But it sucks when it's sunny and in the 40s in Feb. Why is that controversial? And, either way, who cares how MSP is doing vs. their climo; it only matters how they're doing in an absolute sense vs. what winter should be like. Miami had a great winter vs. climo in 1976-77, with all of the oranges destroyed and temps in the 20s with snow flurries on one day. Does that mean they had a good winter? Of course not. And, please everyone - don't put words in my mouth. I've never demanded Siberia or interior Alaska, or even the Keewenaw. It's very simple - on Feb 8th, it should be cold with snow cover and frozen lakes. End of story. Is that really a "next level" request? Are we not allowed to want it to be winter in DJF? I'm tired of having to depend on events, as opposed to being able to rely on the calendar. Sure, good winters can have more events than bad winters...but all that really means is there's either 20" of snow cover and 20" ice depth on Feb 8th in a good winter, vs. 6"/6" in a bad winter. The season looks like the season should, no matter what the winter-to-winter variability is. It's exhausting to accept everyone's low standards...like we're psychologically convincing ourselves that everything is ok, when it's not. It's easy to be content when standards are low - a good metaphor for life. Look at the F-6 for Minocqua this winter so far. 46N in the great state of Wisconsin. It's been a sub-par winter for their standards...and it's a neighboring state, and not very far away...yet it has looked and felt like winter since 12/1. Most days have highs 15-35 and lows -5 to 15. Nothing crazy - just consistent winter. And, again, this is a bad winter for them! A bad winter vs. climo there is a great winter vs. climo here - it sucks.

But it will melt in a couple of days anyway - what's the point? I didn't realize it was April.

That sucks...even our friends at 45N can't escape the misery of this winter. Hopefully you can retain a decent snow cover.

You got it - I already go several times per year, and wish it could be even more often. We have friends with a place in Waupaca, and we snowmobile a few times in Jan/Feb the North Woods. It's a different world - even in a crappy winter when a million indices aren't aligned perfectly, they still have meaningful snow cover that actually stays white throughout the winter, even with an occasional thaw. And you know the lakes will be frozen - it's just a question of whether there's 8" or 20" ice thickness.

Yeah, that’s insane. It’s possible that Portland and Caribou come close to their all time WC records too. Per NWS, I think it’s -43 and -58 respectively.

Wow…all time record -47?

I hear you. A co-worker of mine is a diehard Bears fan. I mean over the top, crazy, and intense. And, of course, the past several years have been bad for the Bears. Instead of trying to explain to them to not worry about it, and minimize their feelings, I try to listen and empathize with them. It’s not my role to diminish their love for the Bears. Who knows - maybe it came from a father-son bond, or some other reason. That’s my point - we should empathize with each other and bond over our love of winter - and not argue or minimize it. Sometimes people just want to know that someone can understand.