Windspeed

When the NAM isn't even being used in ill-advised posts about intensity and track guidance, you clearly got no game as a powerful hurricane. Much disrespect, brah.

This looks fantastic, Josh! Congratulations and keep an eye on Dorian. Things are looking a little more concerning for the SE CONUS tonight!

Up to 70% probs. Per evening visible and shortwave, the cyclonic turning looks even more pronounced than earlier today. No doubt that the axis has indeed closed. However, that does not mean we have a confined low level vort. Mid level circulation, certainly, and even a broad low level cutoff, albeit weak. But the invest needs some robust convection. Like I said in an earlier thread, a good period of convection/MCS right over the cutoff, this thing increases vorticity and should be a go for cyclogenesis and classification.

If this does become a TS, score one for the GFS op. The Euro op missed on this pretty hard. Sure, it continuously resolves the disturbance but hasn't even flirted with sub 1000 mb yet. The GFS has been on the feature for days and has had a number of runs at moderate TS strength. If this does develop, it will probably impact the islands. Late term there will be an upper pv that should pull whatever remains into the Bahamas and near Fl / SE coast.

Yeah I was referring to ASCAT this morning. Still, even with respect to that most recent successful pass, the overall circulation still looks rather weak. Obviously directional winds on the N-NW side are going to be stronger due to the folding of the axis and easterlies. If convection can ramp up again this evening, we may have an interesting development. Still expect odds to go up at 2 PM.

Invest 99L east of the Lesser Antilles is looking very suspicious that it is trying to cutoff the wave axis in the low levels. It clearly has cyclonic turning in mid levels evident on visible. Convection keeps pivoting west and wsw of the axis however. If mid level flow can relax just a bit more and the disturbance can sustain or, even better, an MCS develop at the low level cutoff, we may have a a classified storm in the MDR. Perhaps the NHC did not have a great look at the feature this morning. ASCAT missed. But I figure the odds will increase to moderate on the 2PM AST 5-day outlook besides.

ZCZC MIATWOAT ALL TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM Tropical Weather Outlook NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 800 AM EDT Fri Aug 23 2019 For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico: The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Tropical Depression Chantal, located about 765 miles west of the Azores. 1. Surface and radar data indicate that a weak area of low pressure is located just east of the upper Florida Keys and the southeastern coast of the Florida peninsula. This system is producing a large area of disorganized cloudiness and showers that extends primarily northeast of the center over the northwestern Bahamas and the adjacent Atlantic Ocean. The low is forecast to move near or over the Florida peninsula through tonight, which should limit development during that time. Environmental conditions appear conducive for development once the system moves northeastward back over the Atlantic waters on Saturday. A tropical depression is likely to form this weekend or early next week while the low moves from near the coast of east-central Florida to offshore of the southeastern United States coast. Regardless of development, locally heavy rains are possible over the northwestern Bahamas and southern and central Florida through the weekend. * Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...40 percent. * Formation chance through 5 days...high...70 percent. 2. Showers and thunderstorms have increased since yesterday in association with a tropical wave located about 1400 miles east-southeast of the Windward Islands. Additional slow development of this system is possible during the next few days as it moves generally westward at about 15 mph. * Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent. * Formation chance through 5 days...low...20 percent. Forecaster Beven

Westerly windshear has dramatically decreased across the Caribbean and much of the MDR below 20-25° latitude. Additionally there are signs of backing Azores ridging, which should continue to relax easterlies somewhat over the next week. Robust waves and inverted troughs are exiting Africa during this time. Though the globals are reluctant to latch onto anything yet aside from occasional blurps out of the GFS, I expect a shift towards favorable atmospheric conditions and a decrease in subsidence going into early September. Some of these waves should be strong enough to break off the suppressed ITCZ and amp up moisture feed, convergence and lift across the lower central development region. Essentially, aside from obvious climatological cues, I don't expect things to be quiet much longer.

This is nuts.

Posting this in the OBS and medium-long range threads just so everyone notices: 000 NOUS64 KMRX 121054 FTMMRX Message Date: Aug 12 2019 10:56:47 KMRX RADAR IS GOING DOWN FOR MODIFICATIONS AND WILL BE DOWN THROUGH 8/16/2019. B ET

Posting this in the OBS and medium-long range thread just so everyone notices: 000 NOUS64 KMRX 121054 FTMMRX Message Date: Aug 12 2019 10:56:47 KMRX RADAR IS GOING DOWN FOR MODIFICATIONS AND WILL BE DOWN THROUGH 8/16/2019. B ET

Agree with the increase in storms. Things are quiet and will likely remain that way through late August. OTOH, September and October are shaping up to be very active. ENSO has transitioned to neutral into at least early Winter. Westerly wind shear should be low across the Atlantic MDR. Easterly windshear should become more favorable by late August as the SPH backs north and surface pressures fall. Could be a really interesting setup for the MDR into the Caribbean and not just from a climatological perspective. SSTs/OHC temps and depth throughout the region is running above climo mean and will be conducive for TC development when atmospheric conditions improve.

Lekima is approaching 130 kts or upper Cat 4 per ADT#s the past few hours. This cyclone may even become a Cat 5 on Saffir Simpson scale. Of course a reminder that the agency responsible for that region measures in 10-minute sustained averages, but nonetheless the TC is a beast tha lt may be a Super Typhoon near initial brush / land interaction with Ryukyu Islands, Japan, near to Ishagaki.

TOOL!!!!!!!!

ZCZC MIATWOAT ALL TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM Tropical Weather Outlook NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 800 PM EDT Wed Jul 31 2019 For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico: 1. An area of disturbed weather stretching from central and eastern Cuba northward to the central and southeastern Bahamas is forecast to move northwestward tonight and Thursday, and then move northward on across Florida and the northwestern Bahamas on Friday. This system is expected to produce locally heavy rainfall over portions of the Greater Antilles, the Bahamas and Florida during the next few days. Conditions could become marginally conducive for development over the weekend while the system turns and accelerates northeastward off the southeastern U.S. coast. * Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent. * Formation chance through 5 days...low...10 percent. 2. A broad low pressure system is producing a large area of cloudiness and shower activity several hundred miles west-southwest of the Cabo Verde Islands. Environmental conditions are not expected to be conducive for significant development of this disturbance during the next couple of days while it moves westward at about 15 mph across the central tropical Atlantic Ocean. However, conditions are forecast to become more conducive for development over the weekend, and a tropical depression is likely to form by early next week several hundred miles east of the Lesser Antilles. * Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent. * Formation chance through 5 days...high...70 percent. Forecaster Stewart

Yeah the 12z ECMWF has some very strong 400-300 mb southwesterly winds moving in a line from Cuba across the Bahamas and Bermuda in the 5-7 day range. The GFS is more aligned with the Hudson to Nova Scotia trough and better supportive stacked southerly flow. Hence the GFS has a borderline major hurricane rounding the western periphery of backing 580 dm heights versus the ECMWF which is NOT southerly stacked in flow, which just decapitates any tropical entity that would dare move near the SE CONUS / Bahamas.

Disturbance near the Cape Verdes is up to 40% for the 5-Day Outlook. ZCZC MIATWOAT ALL TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM Tropical Weather Outlook NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 800 PM EDT Tue Jul 30 2019 For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico: 1. A tropical wave continues to produce disorganized showers and thunderstorms over Hispaniola, Puerto Rico, and the Virgin Islands. This disturbance is forecast to move west-northwestward to northwestward during the next several days, producing locally heavy rainfall over portions of the northern Caribbean and the Bahamas. Conditions could become marginally conducive for development late this week when the disturbance moves near Florida and the northwestern Bahamas. * Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent. * Formation chance through 5 days...low...10 percent. 2. A tropical wave located over the eastern tropical Atlantic, a few hundred miles south-southwest of the Cabo Verde Islands, continues to produce a broad area of disorganized showers and thunderstorms. No significant development of this system is expected for the next few days while it moves westward at about 15 mph. Thereafter, upper-level winds are forecast to gradually become more conducive, and a tropical depression could form over the weekend several hundred miles east of the Lesser Antilles. * Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent. * Formation chance through 5 days...medium...40 percent. Forecaster Stewart

TS Flossie continues to intensify and will likely also become a major hurricane over the next couple of days.

Erick is cranking away as a major hurricane. Might reach Cat 4, though an ERC may be about to occur in the short term. The system will cross into the CPAC tomorrow and should experience a weakening trend in three to four days due to strong shear and trough interaction near Hawaii. As such, any interaction there should be minimal.

The one very deep wave over interior Africa already has a decent surface low in conjunction to an abundant moisture envelope. The CCKW should still be in place when it emerges into the Atlantic MDR for the first week of August, so we'll have something to watch. However, keep in mind that Azores 500 mb ridging is still kicking in overdrive right now. Though upper level Westerlies have relaxed out of the W. Atl and Caribbean, deep MDR development is still questionable until strong Easterly mid-level flow can relax somewhat. Easterly shear is still a deterrent and it easing will allow SAL to relax, amplifying moisture and convective instability out of the southern ITCZ.

56°F and feels freaking amazing outside right now. Driving home from work I even turned on the heat. Granted, I had the windows down. Negligible humidity, inhaling that crisp fresh Canadian + radiational cooled air. Premature Fall ejaculation perhaps, but it feels glorious!

Though convection reinitiated over night, it's elongated along the northern half of the broader wave axis quite a distance away from the estimated vortex track plot. I'm having a tough time finding an ill-defined center on radar but it may be the isolated cluster of cells to the northwest of Grand Bahama. Curved banding of the stronger complex to the north may be limited to mid level turning even if that feature has taken over. At any rate, the system has a stretched appearance and isn't aligned. I am beating a dead horse.