SnowGoose69

If I remember right in December 88 the positive NAO killed us. There was probably 3-4 decent storms that came out of the Gulf but weren’t able to make the turn up the coast

Way stronger. Its up there with 98-99/10-11/88-89

I think it was a non factor. In 01-02 the MJO was a big factor being mostly 3-4-5 all winter.

I think that 2011 mostly got sunk by the AK vortex and then January into February got sunk by an SSW which forced what would have been a west or central based -NAO into an uber east based NAO that actually made the pattern even more hostile

The funny thing is thats the exact sort of pattern where somehow Richmond or Atlanta or Nashville will find a snow event but anything major won't happen in the NE. It sort of is 01-02/11-12ish, its not classic Nina SER at all, its just weak to moderate AK vortex, east has a trof at times (hard to tell with the smoothing) but no cold air source at all.

Its sort of a 01-02/11-12 hybrid pattern. Its not necessarily December 2015 or February 2018 with a roided SER. Its just a constant weak to moderate AK vortex and although the east is trofy at times there is no decent source of cold air.

Has anyone looked at 85-86 as a possible analog? The La Niña was much weaker but the QBO looks similar, November was very mild and there was an active Atlantic tropical period that month as well like this year

It was a semi neutral after a La Niña though. Historically those have been terrible and we had a couple of more after that too including 11-12

And NYC will probably get more snow than they got last winter anyway. It’s almost impossible to get that little snow again. By accident we will probably find a 6 inch event somewhere

February 89 and December 89 both exhibited a bit of what we saw in 17-18. Sometimes you get a decent pattern with cold air during La Ninas but they are too progressive so you end up with MA and SE snowstorms but the Northeast misses out. Most always assume La Ninas are bad for places like DC/RDU/CLT but reality is if you get the right pattern for a few weeks those areas can cash in well whereas a similar setup in a neutral or ENSO might have sent the impacting system to their north.

Chances are the pattern is going to flip for 4-5 weeks sooner or later. I can't see see us having wall to wall warm from 11/1-3/15...the reality is nobody wants to see a flip before early to mid December since its hard to get snow before then anyway

The 20Z HRRR got that 02-03Z MOB forecast very close. Had 90kts at 925mb with 76kts mixing to the surface

There has definitely been several cases where its been present late November into December and flipped. 1993 was one I know of. I think it was there more or less all of November into mid December.

Has there ever been a case of identical US landfall spots occurring with 2 storms in the same year?

The EPS might be wrong on the MJO but believe me it isn’t THAT wrong!!! I could see us going longer in 7 and maybe edging into 8 before going nil and re-emerging to 6 but that CFS forecast isn’t going to verify

I’m beginning to wonder if we need a major La Niña or El Niño event to shuffle the pacific SSTS so that we don’t have this same issue with the MJO winter after winter for the foreseeable future

Oh yes that I knew. The one you mentioned though from 91-92 is the one I can’t recall the day but distinctly remember it busting.

I can’t recall what day it was but I vaguely remember this one. I want to say it was a Friday afternoon or evening in February or March and have no recollection of why it busted. We were supposed to get a decent amount up here too

I’m surprised 96-97 isn’t in there. I seem to recall some sort of massive central Pac ridge that screwed us but maybe it was further north. It may have been an Aleutian/Bering block which can be bad too

My first thought when I read this was 12/4/91 or the 1/16/92 bust but this one I don't remember.

The 12/26/93 storm was miserably and I mean miserably handled by NOAA/local mets etc. They completely abandoned ship off a slight shift east in the 12Z guidance that morning despite the fact by noon the radar along the DE/MD coast was clearly west of the 12Z models. I think all warnings outside Suffolk got dropped and by 3-4pm it was obvious the snow was coming straight up the coast. They ended up having to put advisories back up by 7-8pm.

That was dangerously close to being a catastrophe of a bust. The system started sliding more east than expected and nearly ending up missing a good part of the area. I remember that evening around 6pm sitting at home thinking this is really going to bust isn’t it? It ultimately slid far enough east that most of northern Jersey didn’t see major snows

The 5 boroughs of NYC were never under a winter storm watch one time from March 1996 til 12/29/00. That shows you how pathetic things were in regards to winter storms in that period. January 2000 because the storm snuck up on us at the last second they went straight from nothing to a winter storm warning otherwise the streak would have been 11 months shorter

I’m not sure if that LE was correct though. It is pretty darn accurate today at Central Park but I don’t believe there was an ASOS there yet then they were using some sort of old school home weather system for readings from October 1993 til July 1996 when I think the ASOS was put in so very possible that reading was erroneous

There was some pretty nasty dry slotting from about NYC to Nassau for a time. Quite a few places there saw only 16-22 inches or so. I want to say BDR only reported 17-18. We’ve definitely had some oddball measurements over the years at the airports and NYC. That Newark measurement on 2/11/94 I think most agree was wrong. NYC’s measurement on 1/22/87 I had an NWS Met tell me 18-20 years ago they KNOW was wrong. Recently we obviously have some real awful ones but even before 2000 we saw occasional sloppy reporting