frd

PV strengthens back after this initial weakening. Moderation in temps during mid November is possible. Later in the month more significant pattern change may develop. I think the odds of a colder December versus November may be more likely given the data currently.

The focus of that post are the warm SSTs. So you think October and September have been below average ? You are saying the last few years Fall has made an early arrival to the Coastal Plain? Forget about the cold front aspect. Focus on the general warmth around the periphery of the robust WAR supported by above avergae Western Atlantic SSTs. There are many reporting stations along the East Coast that have recently recorded record highs, as well as record high minimum temps, the last few years in September and October due to this effect.

As a continuation from above it would be beneficial to mention a recent post from bluewave. Here the focus are the warm SSTs and the impact they have on the WAR. It is well known that in recent Falls along the East Coast above average Atlantic SSTs have contributed to warmer than normal weather lasting well into October, if not later. Keep in mind that cold fronts may have a difficult time initially moving East with the coldest anomalies to the coastal plain. from bluewave: It looks like the models are continuing to struggle with the influence of the record SSTs to our east. So the WAR puts up more resistance to the cold front to our west. This has been a common theme in recent years. New run Old run

Overnight Euro trended much colder in the center of the US in the medium range . This looks to move East in time. Growing season will end for many areas out West who have not experienced a freeze yet.

Nina's can be front loaded. Pac jet retraction combined with weaker early season PV together give some credence to the weeklies portrayal.

It would appear this will take on a hybrid structure and deepen rapidly along the offshore baroclinic zone.

A good sign moving forward despite knowing we are battling a Nina in a warmer background state. Coastal action is welcome sign.

Yep, get ready for all the upcoming disappointments.

Today's Euro much less rainfall in our area. NE gets destroyed, nothing new.

Same here, also the AFD from Mount Holly a few days back focused on the incredibly warm ocean temps off the Mid Atlantic coastline. Same pattern the last four years. Warm ocean temps reinforcing the WAR. Was 70 degrees in the surf the week before last in North Wildwood, NJ.

from bluewave Our region in top 4 warmest Fall temps through the 20 th of this month. Some areas warmest ever. The warming is undeniabe.

A change is on the horizon for mid November according to HM and Ben

I love to hear your thoughts Mr Douglass, but alas you live in the promise land .

Continued warmth ahead .....for mid October Little by little is doesn't really matter whether the Pac is on our side or not. Blocking in the AO and NAO domains doesn't gaurantee or foster snow any longer to the lower lattititudes, which includes us. In a general warming base state you will achieve less cold air intrusions with less severity when you start with less available cold air, but also a not so conducive cryosphere to transport that cold air to lower lattitudes. Telleconnections do not work as they did before. Analog years do not work as they did before. Data shows that less and less snow is falling in our area and in areas to our SW and South. Get use to pathetic snowfall and warmth year around.

Snow is being talked about out West, and not only the mountain areas. Meanwhile the typical October robust WAR holds serve, while warm Atlantic ocean temps remain over wide areas of the basin.

In this backdrop we have post-tropical Sam and a unusual path.

Excellent trend and no funny business so far with the QBO.

SPC AC 041627 Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1127 AM CDT Mon Oct 04 2021 Valid 041630Z - 051200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE MID-ATLANTIC/DELMARVA... ...SUMMARY... Strong to locally severe thunderstorms may occur across the Mid-Atlantic States/Delmarva this afternoon and evening. ...Mid-Atlantic States/Delmarva... It appears that some strong to marginally severe storms, potentially capable of localized wind damage, may occur this afternoon and evening. The region will be cyclonically influenced by the weak upper low centered over the Ohio Valley/Lower Great Lakes and its peripheral mid-level cool pocket and modestly strong (20-25 kt) southwesterly mid-level winds. Latest visible satellite trends reflect steady clearing especially near/east of the Appalachians spine across Virginia and Maryland, but also across the Delmarva/southern New Jersey. MLCAPE values should reach/locally exceed 1000 J/kg, with weak convergence/differential heating along the higher terrain/mountains (and front across PA/NJ) expected to influence thunderstorm development this afternoon. A steepening of low-level lapse rates and a moist environment could support some locally strong to severe storms.

Growing support for a deeper dive with the Arctic oscillation for late October. If it happens it will support the idea that November would feature a weaker than normal polar vortex.

As I mentioned above the Euro has been off its game for quite some time. Can you imagine if it was Winter and that was ❄️ never trust the Euro! ( Unless there is multi model agreement).

Seems the Euro still doesn't get things correct at range.

Some of the warmest Octobers on record have produced this in the following Novembers.

Went to the dog park, just got back. Feels like August out there Yuck !

The warmer this October ends the higher the odds of a colder Novemember into and early to mid December . So far things look to line up very warm in the NE