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frd

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Everything posted by frd

  1. For the 6 th year in a row the weeklies sucked. LR Models can not predict HL events, nor the NAM stae, modeling can not predict the AO or the NAO far in advance. Modeling may be able to handle the warm seasons, but when cold is forecasted best to not believe it. This winter was the final straw.
  2. Looking at the data on Stratobserve there seems to be some changes going on mid to late month. These changes may cause the long range ensembles to improve in the next few days to colder and snowier scenarios for our area. Will be interesing to monitor.
  3. It would be a bummer with the end of the month pattern not to score an all snow event for my area and @CAPE . But, I get it. Even @psuhoffman mentioned some frustrations with temps. I will remain optimistic. Hopefully things get active ( snowy ) and you can offer your valued insights.
  4. You are not concerned with the anomalously displaced STJ ? You anticipate this to change later in the month? I am thinking the massive - SOI tanking changes things up later. Just wondering .
  5. Yes, I saw that and I was reading Tip's thoughts in the New england forum where he mentioned he believes the + PNA longevity might be brief. Hard to say for sure what eventually happens in the Pac. The Greenland Block and the - AO look legit.
  6. Nothing new really, this has been gone over recenlty, that we need to wait for the Greenland block to retrograde and relax. However, worth mentioning the probability is there for a rather significant event in the Mid Atlantic later in Feb.
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