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frd

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Everything posted by frd

  1. frd
    Holy crap !!!!!!
  2. frd
    Source region should be frigid, while we may experience another PV displacement or elongation into Central Canada. Crazy look at hour 384.
  3. frd
    In a general fashion there are some improvements on the NAM early in the run, later in the run I place less faith on the outcome in terms of the phasing.
  4. frd
    Still way too east for us Might keep trending West, as well as several intense members out there in terms of pressure.
  5. frd
    Pretty cool time series.
  6. frd
    @psuhoffman made mention of this general orientation and currently things are falling into place with an incredible N to S dive of energy. Still a balancing act towards coastal hugger if too ampliufied to the other extreme of a miss wide right.
  7. frd
    EPS continues to improve at hour 120.
  8. frd
    18z
  9. frd
    Several times the mean was 6 inches and zero snow fell within the forecast timeframe. Beyond these maps the only thing worse is the surreal control model. Never is it even close to reality.
  10. frd
    This is encouraging, even if I don't trust the EPS, but I am a sucker. Seriously though, no cutter solutions there.
  11. frd
    The @psuhoffmanstorm. Hey I said it Hopefully performs like the @CAPE storm, dropping 6.25 inches here.
  12. frd
    Can you clarify the period of interest that you mentioned, do you feel that the potential exists for a moderate event for the coastal plain during the time of the Jan. 25th to the 30th?
  13. frd
    Total loss of any trust in that model , EPS included. Waste your time and get your excitment up for a POS model. Can not even get close to a correct forecast a few days away.
  14. frd
    Euro is not the same model as years ago. And, ROI tracking snow events is going negative.
  15. frd
    How is it possible both the Euro operational and EPS are out done by the GFS ? I thought from a physics standpoint they are superior to the GFS especially at this range.
  16. frd
  17. frd
    From Walt Drag this AM. Posted 33 minutes ago East coast snowstorm potential 21st-22nd Atlanta to NYC-Boston: Uncertainty exists on best target, and also where its all snow or freezing rain-sleet. The greatest uncertainty for me is the NYC-BOSTON-I84 corridor. No matter, there does appear to be a strong likelihood of a 5-10" snowfall, especially NC-VA-MD-DE.
  18. frd
    EPS track would suggest a cold smoke event for inland areas , actually even coastal areas would cash in according to the EPS. But, it is early amd would like to see additional models jump onboard. However, the pattern does support a storm in this period, and the time frame after this as well.
  19. frd
    I know you're longing at the opportunity to drive to the beach and view another coastal blizzard but I prefer not to. Let us hope things change slightly by the week of the 24th . There appears to be the possibility of a wave breaking event that could cause a transient negative NAO, if so, maybe the coast of plain can get some sort of a moderate all snow event .
  20. frd
    Simply incredible
  21. frd
    Need to score in the next 2 weeks, as bluewave stated on the NYC forum, the pattern looks to break down at the end of the month. from bluewave below: 'Let’s hope we can cash in in this +PNA -EPO while we have it in late January. The latest ensembles moved to the EPS idea of a pattern reversal in early February. The big ridge pulls back to the Aleutians allowing a more neutral to eventually -PNA in early February."
  22. frd
    Still looking forward to what may, or may not happen, late month after this recent fiasco. Maybe @CAPE and I can score a moderate hit and have it stick around a while. I settle for a ground blizzard.
  23. frd
    For the Coastal Plain still feel the highest threat for a SECS or greater is from Jan 20 th to the 29 th . This will also coincide with the possibilty of the coldest readings of the winter so far, especially if snow cover can be achieved.
  24. frd
    The banana high pressure structure to the North totally collapses in a period of 24 hours. Dissapointing. As Bob Chill stated we were at 2 for 2 , but luck has to stop , so I think this one is going to be a loss for the coastal plain. Amazing too, how intense the cold is Sunday morning and then how quickly we warm up.
  25. frd
    True, as psu stated, the more threats we experience the higher the odds are we will strike it rich with at least one flush hit. As for the STJ, yes that becomes more favorable. We are just entering the favorable pattern this weekend.
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