frd
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Everything posted by frd
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Signal is there for a big storm. I am sure New England will cash in.
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Significant changes in concensus moving forward with the AO. Most members take it negative. A great sign moving forward. Also, no sign at the moment that the SPV and the TPV are going to couple. Also of interest is the robust signal for a very negative NAO moving forward. Could be an active and cold weather period for the East later in the month and in early December.
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More support growing for a - NAO later this month. Extensive Atlantic wave breaking is forecasted leading up to this.
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This Friday night will be the coldest of the season so far. Snow showers for some before 8 or 9 AM. Friday morning.
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This might help the back end of winter I believe since there is a delay from ocean to atmosphere. Do you know how long it actually takes to occur, if indeed it focuses more East by early to mid December?
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Interesting potential on a - NAO signal out in time. If it happens then the question is, does it retrograde further WSW in a ideal Davis Straight block.
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If your kitchen is hot on Thanksgiving Day you might get relief this year by opening the windows verus needing the AC on.
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Snow showers in the forecast here for this coming Friday, I had to look twice, thought I was in the wrong zone. Friday A chance of snow showers. Sunny, with a high near 49. Chance of precipitation is 30%.
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Pretty cool loop.
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That event produced here and was actually under-forecasted. Given it was mid-November it made the event more remarkable. I still remember the long traffic delays.
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WPO is going to tank and hopefully stay that way into December.
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Very interesting descending QBO numbers so far. Some analogs related to this would lead to a cold, and potentially stormy December in the East.
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Latest data supports a potentially colder December. Good luck with your forecast. A cold holiday period would be great, some snow would make it even better !
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Looking interesting
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Seasonal versus the drivers.
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Heavy frost and freeze here. Growing season is over. This is actually earlier than last year by several weeks.
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What a useless model. Flips every day. Best skill seems to be the last 6 days of the month for the month ahead.
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PV getting stronger now before a possible weakening later in the month.
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Snow cover, both in Eurasian and North America, look pathetic. If you thought last winter had a rough start this looks even worse. As HM mentioned things are looking ZZZ..... in the snow cover department.
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Recent trends are starting to back up the idea that the PV starts to weaken again by mid to late month along with lessening zonal winds and possibly a change in the NAM state.
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End of the month cool down possible after the mid-month warmth. Actually in the end there is some evidence that this November's HDDs may end up closer to normal, however that remains to be seen.
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If you are counting on our source regions to help deliver cold into our area this month the odds look very poor. Many record highs in areas that should be much, much colder. Same issues as last year, and only getting worse. Snow cover looks pathetic as well.
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Here is the entire month of December based off the early morning run today. Front loaded winter? Seems to be two camps on that notion.
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