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Ah, a buffet of goodies possibly.

Interesting, but all options are on the table at this time for the Mid Atlantic Southward.

That is funny. I guess luck needs to be listed first in order of importance above a - AO , -NAO or a + PNA in the Mid Atlantic. Hopefully we get some great luck to go with our upcoming favorable pattern.

LOVE this animation posted by Griteater. Pretty incredible to imagine the possibilities ahead. s

Wow, gets tastier and tastier as time moves on. A very active pattern as John mentions.

Impressive decline continues in the SOI. Today's value - 27. Certainly goes with @brooklynwx99 awesome post about a STJ component to the pattern down the line.

The STJ is in play down the road. A continued decline in the SOI . Date Tahiti (hPa) Darwin (hPa) Daily Contribution 30 day Av. SOI 90 day Av. SOI 8 Jan 2022 1008.45 1008.65 -22.65 9.56 9.77

Going beyond this time frame ... BANG KU potential. Using the snowfall images simply to show the period of interest is supported by the EPS and the GEFS members. .

Yes indeed, some very interesting potential outcomes in the long range. Besides the favorable Pac we have a very pronounced elongation/stretching of the PV forecasted. This may coincide with Atlantic wave breaking and Greenland blocking. This could buckle and slow the exit of systems off the East Coast in addition to a potential dive of the arctic jet bringing the possibilty of very low lattitude high ratio snow events, along with extreme baroclinic deepening of storms off the East Coast. Here we are now Then at 240 hours Then at hour 372, which is crazy. Of note is the shifting Southward of the PV / streamlines and the monentum itself of the Southward elongation of the PV from beyond 300 hours to the end of the run.

High pressure over over SE Idaho and a scooting low pressure system to our South. This time period remains of interest.

Getting more impressive every run. Cross-polar flow and quick moving disturbances. Depending on whether we can put down some snow cover will determine if we have a wintery landscape to go along with the frigid temperatures. Any snow cover would certainly enhance even lower temperatures.

A slight change of plans. Improvement in the MJO, tropical forcing and for the first time in a while we have a SOI reading of - 7.63 today. Date Tahiti (hPa) Darwin (hPa) Daily Contribution 30 day Av. SOI 90 day Av. SOI 7 Jan 2022 1011.09 1008.10 -7.63 10.53 9.97

Something to watch. Also, as previously stated, an active pattern with decent clipper potential, and eventially possible SECS.

Suggest buying extra chapstick and Aveeno

Continuing to look good mid month and beyond as the Nina has become more East based in a rather pronouned fashion. Favorable changes in the Pac near the Date Line ( MJO , some warming Nino 4 ) have presented a more increasingly Nino-ish outcome with a STJ influence. Moving forward next week we will have a declining NAO courtesy of a Atlantic wave breaking event while we await the positive PNA spike. Latest indications are the AO goes back to neutral to slightly negative which may then possibly lead to a - NAM state. This sets the stage for possible snow events mid month and beyond. Warming in Nino 4 recently. https://twitter.com/WorldClimateSvc/status/1478098875567296520

I like this part. Through 12-16Z, strengthening lower/mid tropospheric warm advection, beneath increasingly divergent mid/upper flow appears likely to contribute to a gradually consolidating and expanding area of moderate snow across a large portion of the Mid South. It appears that the heaviest snow may become focused just ahead of a frontal wave, across parts of western into middle Tennessee, where models suggest that lift will become maximized in the dendritic growth zone, near the nose of the better low-level Gulf moisture return (including precipitable water on the order of .50-.70 inches). This may include a couple hour period with snow rates of 1-2+ inches per hour.

Wonder if the GFS will lead again by 24 hours on its outcome based on the possibility of it doing better in sampling the shortwave. Will be cool to watch.

Models have been hinting of a storm near the 15 th or 16 th. A time period of interest. Robust + PNA spike near this time frame and a elongated PV is forecasted as well.

Wow ! Another possible Eastern area special on the way. Love it !

Sorry, the Dark Side made me post this. But, maybe this simply portends an active pattern ahead ......

Pretty sunset out there now. l

Brrr........ maybe too. Clipper time

Maybe the Euro which tends to be over amped at times will correct somewhat to the GEFS and CMC outcomes. Certainly appears cold enough. The same areas that did well might do well again.