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Will need to watch this constructed analog progression in the weeks ahead centered on 1-13-22.

Fits @brooklynwx99 's roll-forward West based - NAO research. Pretty cool !

Interesting as well are the changes in the placement and orientation of the PV as we near the end of the month.

From a respected met is this interesting roll forward analysis. This December appears to finish with a -NAO/-PNA combo. He stated that " Januaries that historically followed Decembers with a -NAO/-PNA featured favorable patterns for the E US with a significant west-based -NAO:

@psuhoffman Goes along with what you said. From Webb.....posted today. these slower-moving West Pacific MJO waves during La Nina are actually the most likely to significantly disrupt the stratosphere and create stronger, long-lasting -NAOs because of the poleward displacement of the N Pacific jet during La Nina (focusing more wave fluxes onto the mean state/over eastern Russia when active WP MJO is present) & greater separation between the Pacific + Atlantic jet streams as well as large wavelength Rossby Waves in the N Pacific jet.

Still out in time, but provides some hope for late month.

Keep moving MJO

It may effect the PV in a positive way.

That should start to help shift things around.

Maybe some positive changes start near December 20 th.

To balance things out.

We all laugh at Dr Cohen @CAPE , but I will say this, last year looked better at this point. We had record NA snow cover and a cold period in December. ( even though we experienced the same typical warmth period after Dec. 15 ) I think there is something to be made of a healthy cryosphere and extensive snow cover. So far the AO forecast have been getting uglier and uglier.

Take this with a grain of salt. But, in a Nina and with the base state we have I can see this happening.

It appears that the early seasonal forecast from the euro and even the UK met portraying a weakening of the vortex at the end of November and in early December is not going to pan out. The vortex remains firmly planted over the North Pole and doesn't even offer any displacement towards North America. It would appear that those calling for a front loaded winter may not get it. It would be ironic if the heart of Winter produces which is not typical of a la Nina.

I have not seen the Control for the GFS or the Euro score a win in many years during the late Fall or Winter when it comes to predicting potential snowfall. Meanwhile, I would be concerned regarding a poor NAM state, and the lack of any posts from HM about the upcoming winter.

Even later December not looking good for winter weather lovers. The PV is consolidated near the North Pole and there is no sign of a displaced or stretched out PV into North America. Meanwhile the AO looks to stay positive and there are no solid precurrsors to any significant strat warming. Things can change but at the moment very boring weather.

Also of note, the potential of a favorable MJO passage later in December, however, the amplitude remains uncertain. Still, something to keep track of in the days ahead.

Interesting despite the gloomy prospects of an early winter in the East.

Pretty colors.

I wish I were in Canada.

AAM looks like it might fall off later in the month. However, the last image shows what a - GLAMM might look like with anomilies less than -0.5

Seems the last few years the best patterns for us never coincides with our best climo. Last year when we thought we were going to get nailed by extreme cold and snow ( during the strong blocking episode ) the entire threat area shifted way SW leading to the crippling Texas snow/ice and severe cold outbreak. I believe the block shifted West and we were left with scraps.

Low of 30 with frost.

Signal is there for a big storm. I am sure New England will cash in.