Roger Smith

Don's top ten summers 2010 1966 1993 1995 1999 1980 1988 1949 2011 1994 Their ranks in my table __ 2 __ 3 __ 11 ___ 24 __ 21 __ 14 __ 22 __ 06 __ 36 __ 30 LB favorites 1944 and 1983 finished 8 and 12. I'm not sure whether Don considered summers before 1949 in his top ten listing, or where in time his list begins, would be interesting to find out where some of my top ten (1876, 1906, 1908) finished in his list. But in general I think cool starts to June are the main determining factor in placing a given summer lower on my list, that part of summer rarely produces much of the heat content that Don's method was measuring; also, if September heat was included, none of that would affect my rankings. Even without Sep 1-3, 1953 ranked 29th. The four worst modern summers were 2009, 2000, 1992 and 1996.

In my Toronto-NYC climate study (in climate change forum) this is how I ranked the seasons after making adjustments for urban heat island. I rated the heat island at 0.2 F or 0.1 C deg every decade, until 1980, after which I held it steady ... so data from 1981 to 2025 is reduced by 2 F or 1.1 C, 1971-80 by 1.0 C, 1961-70 by 0.9 C, etc, until one reaches 1869-80 which is not reduced at all. I am going to check this against Don's list for summers. <<< Ranked seasonal means for NYC (adjusted for urban heat island) >>> 156 years are ranked. The median position is average of 78th warmest and coldest. Warmest seasons are at the top of these ranked tables; coldest are at the bottom. Ties are not directly indicated and are listed in chronological order. __ Winter 2024-25 will enter table 74th warmest 0.47 C . 2025 median is 79th warmest and coldest. __ Spring 2025 will enter the table 14th warmest 11.58 C. __ Summer 2025 is headed for a finish near 23.30 C which would be 38th warmest, but many years are jammed into a narrow range between 30th and 50th. warmest ................................................................................................ coldest RANK ___ winter _________ spring _______ summer _____ autumn ______ RANK _01 __ 2001-2002 4.20 __ 2010 12.86 __ 1876 24.46 __ 1931 15.98 ___ 156 _02 __ 2022-2023 3.92 __ 2012 12.75 __ 2010 24.34 __ 1900 15.52 ___ 155 _03 __ 1931-1932 3.90 __ 1991 12.42 __ 1966 24.28 __ 2015 15.44 ___ 154 _04 __ 2015-2016 3.90 __ 1921 12.41 __ 2005 23.94 __ 1961 15.30 ___ 153 _05 __ 2023-2024 3.66 __ 2024 12.34 __1908 24.26 __ 1946 15.23 ___ 152 _06 __ 2011-2012 3.62 __ 1945 12.24 __ 1949 24.22 __ 1941 14.98 ___ 151 _07 __ 1889-1890 3.51 __ 1903 12.03 __ 1906 24.11 __ 1881 14.97 ___ 150 _08 __ 1879-1880 3.28 __ 1985 11.98 __ 1944 24.02 __ 1953 14.90 ___ 149 _09 __ 1997-1998 3.14 __ 1977 11.87 __ 1943 23.93 __ 1948 14.74 ___ 148 _10 __ 2016-2017 2.95 __ 1986 11.79 __ 1870 23.85 __ 2017 14.68 ___ 147 _11 __ 1948-1949 2.91 __ 1979 11.74 __ 1993 23.84 __ 2024 14.66 ___ 146 _12 __ 1990-1991 2.88 __ 2016 11.68 __ 1983 23.83 __ 1902 14.61 ___ 145 _13 __ 2019-2020 2.88 __ 2023 11.66 __ 2020 23.83 __ 1979 14.61 ___ 144 _14 __ 1936-1937 2.66 __ 1942 11.54 __ 1980 23.80 __ 2005 14.60 ___ 143 _15 __ 1932-1933 2.64 __ 1946 11.54 __ 1939 23.79 __ 1908 14.55 ___ 142 _16 __ 1952-1953 2.61 __ 1998 11.43 __ 1952 23.79 __ 2016 14.53 ___ 141 _17 __ 1998-1999 2.60 __ 1910 11.38 __ 1899 23.78 __ 1898 14.51 ___ 140 _18 __ 1912-1913 2.45 __ 2021 11.37 __ 1872 23.76 __ 1971 14.45 ___ 139 _19 __ 1949-1950 2.34 __ 1981 11.36 __ 2016 23.75 __ 1985 14.46 ___ 138 _20 __ 1905-1906 2.31 __ 1878 11.26 __ 2022 23.75 __ 1927 14.44 ___ 137 _21 __ 1908-1909 2.29 __ 1871 11.22 __ 1999 23.73 __ 1990 14.42 ___ 136 _22 __ 1897-1898 2.28 __ 1969 11.19 __ 1988 23.70 __ 2020 14.40 ___ 135 _23 __ 1953-1954 2.20 __ 2004 11.18 __ 2024 23.68 __ 1959 14.37 ___ 134 _24 __ 1982-1983 2.18 __ 1955 11.16 __ 1995 23.64 __ 1884 14.34 ___ 133 _25 __ 1918-1919 2.17 __ 1987 11.16 __ 1955 23.63 __ 2007 14.33 ___ 132 _26 __ 1996-1997 2.14 __ 2022 11.14 __ 2015 23.53 __ 1970 14.32 ___ 131 _27 __ 1974-1975 2.05 __ 1949 11.12 __ 1973 23.52 __ 1968 14.28 ___ 130 _28 __ 1951-1952 1.98 __ 1962 11.12 __ 1991 23.51 __ 2011 14.27 ___ 129 _29 __ 1891-1892 1.87 __ 1959 11.11 __ 1953 23.49 __ 2001 14.25 ___ 128 _30 __ 2005-2006 1.84 __ 2006 11.11 __1994 23.45 __ 1983 14.20 ___ 127 _31 __ 1991-1992 1.81 __ 1918 11.10 __ 1971 23.42 __ 1947 14.19 ___ 126 _32 __ 2021-2022 1.75 __ 1980 11.09 __ 1900 23.34 __ 1973 14.19 ___ 125 _33 __ 1994-1995 1.74 __ 1913 11.08 __ 2002 23.33 __ 2021 14.18 ___ 124 _34 __ 2012-2013 1.59 __ 2000 11.07 __ 1961 23.32 __ 1920 14.05 ___ 123 _35 __ 1868-1869 1.54 __ 1938 11.01 __ 1938 23.31 __ 1915 14.04 ___ 122 _36 __ 1959-1960 1.54 __ 1908 10.99 __ 2011 23.31 __ 1949 14.04 ___ 121 _37 __ 1950-1951 1.40 __ 2011 10.96 __ 2021 23.31 __ 1994 14.01 ___ 120 _38 __ 1869-1870 1.39 __ 1929 10.95 __ 1937 23.29 __ 1905 13.98 ___ 119 _39 __ 1929-1930 1.37 __ 2002 10.92 __ 1901 23.27 __ 1906 13.98 ___ 118 _40 __ 2006-2007 1.36 __ 2015 10.92 __ 1892 23.26 __ 1960 13.98 ___ 117 _41 __ 1984-1985 1.35 __ 1953 10.88 __ 1896 23.26 __ 1912 13.97 ___ 116 _42 __ 2007-2008 1.35 __ 1880 10.81 __ 1898 23.25 __ 2022 13.95 ___ 115 _43 __ 1938-1939 1.29 __ 1922 10.81 __ 1981 23.25 __ 1982 13.94 ___ 114 _44 __ 1965-1966 1.28 __ 1936 10.79 __ 2018 23.23 __ 1954 13.92 ___ 113 _45 __ 1881-1882 1.27 __ 1976 10.78 __ 1885 23.21 __ 2010 13.92 ___ 112 _46 __ 2018-2019 1.27 __ 1889 10.72 __ 1957 23.20 __ 1957 13.88 ___ 111 _47 __ 1999-2000 1.23 __ 1957 10.72 __ 2013 23.18 __ 1938 13.86 ___ 110 _48 __ 1956-1957 1.18 __ 1973 10.72 __ 2019 23.12 __ 1878 13.85 ___ 109 _49 __ 1875-1876 1.17 __ 1941 10.71 __ 1930 23.11 __ 2023 13.83 ___ 108 _50 __ 2020-2021 1.16 __ 1963 10.68 __ 1970 23.10 __ 1963 13.79 ___ 107 _51 __ 1920-1921 1.14 __ 1951 10.65 __ 1880 23.09 __ 1921 13.78 ___ 106 _52 __ 1873-1874 1.11 ___ 2009 10.64 __ 1959 23.09 __ 1930 13.78 ___ 105 _53 __ 1971-1972 1.09 __ 2019 10.64 __ 1877 23.07 __ 1942 13.76 ___ 104 _54 __ 1988-1989 1.09 __ 1964 10.62 __ 2012 23.07 __ 1945 13.76 ___ 103 _55 __ 1928-1929 1.00 __ 1919 10.58 __ 1882 23.05 __ 1975 13.76 ___ 102 _56 __ 2017-2018 0.96 __ 1999 10.58 __ 1969 23.04 __ 1870 13.73 ___ 101 _57 __ 1989-1990 0.95 __ 1968 10.56 __ 1917 23.01 __ 1895 13.73 ___ 100 _58 __ 1972-1973 0.94 __ 1925 10.54 __ 1934 23.01 __ 1896 13.71 ____ 99 _59 __ 1927-1928 0.93 __ 1974 10.54 __ 2008 23.01 __1998 13.69 ____ 98 _60 __ 1923-1924 0.91 __ 1990 10.53 __ 1931 22.99 __ 1952 13.68 ____ 97 _61 __ 1979-1980 0.89 __ 1996 10.53 __ 1895 22.97 __ 1919 13.67 ____ 96 _62 __ 1946-1947 0.86 __ 1993 10.51 __ 1932 22.97 __ 1999 13.66 ____ 95 _63 __ 1973-1974 0.85 __ 2020 10.51 __ 1894 22.95 __ 1899 13.63 ____ 94 _64 __ 2004-2005 0.79 __ 1902 10.42 __1933 22.93 __ 1891 13.61 ____ 93 _65 __ 1877-1878 0.72 __ 1994 10.40 __ 1905 22.91 __ 1944 13.60 ____ 92 _66 __ 1914-1915 0.71 __ 1965 10.39 __ 1878 22.90 __ 1950 13.60 ____ 91 _67 __ 1983-1984 0.70 __ 1894 10.34 __ 1977 22.87 __ 1922 13.59 ____ 90 _68 __ 1937-1938 0.68 __ 2007 10.33 __ 1987 22.79 __ 1934 13.58 ____ 89 _69 __ 1890-1891 0.61 __ 1897 10.32 __ 2001 22.75 __1909 13.55 ____ 88 _70 __ 1899-1900 0.60 __ 1879 10.31 __ 1935 22.73 __ 1984 13.53 ____ 87 _71 __ 1992-1993 0.57 __ 2001 10.31 __ 2006 22.73 __ 1910 13.50 ____ 86 _72 __ 1895-1896 0.50 __ 2008 10.31 __ 1925 22.68 __ 2006 13.47 ____ 85 _73 __ 1986-1987 0.48 __ 1952 10.29 __ 1883 22.66 __ 1914 13.45 ____ 84 _74 __ 1930-1931 0.41 __ 1988 10.29 __ 1990 22.64 __ 1932 13.45 ____ 83 _75 __ 1907-1908 0.40 __ 2017 10.29 __ 1891 22.63 __ 2014 13.45 ____ 82 _76 __ 1987-1988 0.38 __ 1982 10.25 __ 1936 22.62 __ 1897 13.43 ____ 81 _77 __ 1975-1976 0.33 __ 1954 10.16 __ 1968 22.62 __ 1916 13.42 ____ 80 _78 __ 1888-1889 0.31 __ 1896 10.15 __ 1911 22.60 __ 1928 13.39 ____ 79 median (avg) _79 __ 1924-1925 0.30 __ 1989 10.14 __ 1948 22.60 __ 1913 13.40 ____ 78 median (avg) _80 __ 1954-1955 0.29 __ 1898 10.12 __ 1941 22.58 __ 1969 13.38 ___ 77 _81 __ 1966-1967 0.27 __ 1983 10.11 __ 1913 22.56 __ 1991 13.38 ___ 76 _82 __ 1896-1897 0.21 __ 2018 10.10 __ 1907 22.55 __ 2019 13.38 ___ 75 _83 __ 2008-2009 0.14 __ 1886 10.03 __ 1929 22.55 __ 1935 13.36 ___ 74 _84 __ 1943-1944 0.06 __ 1905 10.03 __ 1873 22.54 __ 1955 13.25 ___ 73 _85 __ 1893-1894 -0.07 __ 1933 9.99 __ 1979 22.50 __ 1995 13.25 ___ 72 _86 __ 1910-1911 -0.07 __ 1970 9.99 __ 1921 22.48 __ 2004 13.25 ___ 71 _87 __ 2009-2010 -0.08 __ 2013 9.99 __ 1887 22.46 __ 1929 13.24 ___ 70 _88 __ 1940-1941 -0.13 __ 1935 9.97 __ 1974 22.45 __ 2013 13.23 ___ 69 _89 __ 1915-1916 -0.14 __ 1944 9.95 __ 1879 22.44 __ 1918 13.21 ___ 68 _90 __ 1957-1958 -0.15 __ 1930 9.94 __ 1967 22.44 __ 1877 13.18 ___ 67 _91 __ 1964-1965 -0.16 __ 1931 9.94 __ 2014 22.44 __ 2003 13.16 ___ 66 _92 __ 1961-1962 -0.18 __ 1948 9.91 __ 1923 22.43 __ 1879 13.15 ___ 65 _93 __ 1963-1964 -0.19 __ 1939 9.85 __ 1942 22.43 __ 2018 13.12 ___ 64 _94 __ 1941-1942 -0.20 __ 1966 9.84 __ 2023 22.42 __ 1923 13.11 ___ 63 _95 __ 2000-2001 -0.25 __ 1906 9.76 __ 1960 22.40 __ 1964 13.10 ___ 62 _96 __ 1902-1903 -0.28 __ 1899 9.74 __ 2017 22.38 __ 1965 13.10 ___ 61 _97 __ 1901-1902 -0.30 __ 1975 9.72 __ 2017 22.38 __ 1966 13.10 ___ 60 _98 __ 1985-1986 -0.30 __ 1912 9.65 __ 1951 22.37 __ 1958 13.09 ___ 59 _99 __ 1955-1956 -0.37 __ 1915 9.64 __ 1954 22.37 __ 2009 13.07 ___ 58 100 __ 1968-1969 -0.40 __ 1934 9.64 __ 1918 22.36 __ 1939 13.03 ___ 57 101 __ 1900-1901 -0.44 __ 2014 9.64 __ 1998 22.31 __ 1993 12.99 ___ 56 102 __ 1926-1927 -0.46 __ 1958 9.63 __ 1884 22.29 __ 1989 12.98 ___ 55 103 __ 1913-1914 -0.48 __ 1927 9.61 __ 1978 22.28 __ 1951 12.96 ___ 54 104 __ 1906-1907 -0.49 __ 1972 9.59 __ 1910 22.27 __ 1986 12.90 ___ 53 105 __ 1925-1926 -0.50 __ 2005 9.53 __ 1904 22.26 __ 1903 12.88 ___ 52 106 __ 1916-1917 -0.55 __ 1937 9.46 __ 1909 22.26 __ 1874 12.87 ___ 51 107 __ 1945-1946 -0.55 __ 1997 9.45 __ 1875 22.24 __ 2002 12.86 ___ 50 108 __ 1898-1899 -0.59 __ 1895 9.43 __ 1947 22.24 __ 1956 12.83 ___ 49 109 __ 2013-2014 -0.60 __ 1971 9.42 __ 1928 22.22 __ 1936 12.82 ___ 48 110 __ 1942-1943 -0.61 __ 1914 9.40 __ 1897 22.13 __ 1980 12.82 ___ 47 111 __ 1870-1871 -0.63 __ 1978 9.39 __ 1890 22.10 __ 2012 12.82 ___ 46 112 __ 1978-1979 -0.63 __ 1996 9.31 __ 1972 22.09 __ 1977 12.78 ___ 45 113 __ 2010-2011 -0.64 __ 1870 9.21 __ 1975 22.09 __ 1890 12.77 ___ 44 114 __ 1980-1981 -0.68 __ 1960 9.20 __ 1922 22.07 __ 1911 12.73 ___ 43 115 __ 1981-1982 -0.75 __ 2003 9.20 __ 1920 22.06 __ 1943 12.73 ___ 42 116 __ 1909-1910 -0.76 __ 1909 9.18 __ 1945 22.06 __ 1937 12.70 ___ 41 117 __ 1921-1922 -0.81 __ 1992 9.18 __ 1989 22.05 __ 1894 12.69 ___ 40 118 __ 1939-1940 -0.82 __ 1961 9.17 __ 1964 22.04 __ 1886 12.64 ___ 39 119 __ 1970-1971 -0.88 __ 1943 9.10 __ 1912 22.03 __ 1907 12.64 ___ 38 120 __ 2003-2004 -0.86 __ 1884 9.08 __ 1894 22.02 __ 1933 12.64 ___ 37 121 __ 1995-1996 -0.95 __ 1932 9.08 __ 1919 22.02 __ 1981 12.55 ___ 36 122 __ 1960-1961 -1.00 __ 1881 9.03 __ 2003 22.01 __ 2008 12.55 ___ 35 123 __ 1934-1935 -1.06 __ 1904 9.03 __ 1940 21.99 __ 1988 12.53 ___ 34 124 __ 1883-1884 -1.08 __ 1920 9.01 __ 1986 21.99 __ 1974 12.52 ___ 33 125 __ 1886-1887 -1.08 __ 1890 8.97 __ 1950 21.97 __ 1987 12.49 ___ 32 126 __ 1911-1912 -1.16 __ 1911 8.97 __ 1963 21.95 __ 1926 12.41 ___ 31 127 __ 1876-1877 -1.18 __ 1923 8.97 __ 2007 21.94 __ 1924 12.39 ___ 30 128 __ 1894-1895 -1.18 __ 1947 8.97 __ 1874 21.91 __ 1882 12.38 ___ 29 129 __ 1885-1886 -1.21 __ 1984 8.94 __ 1985 21.90 __ 1885 12.38 ___ 28 130 __ 1967-1968 -1.31 __ 1882 8.90 __ 1958 21.89 __ 1940 12.31 ___ 27 131 __ 2014-2015 -1.42 __ 1928 8.87 __ 1893 21.88 __ 1997 12.29 ___ 26 132 __ 1958-1959 -1.43 __ 1907 8.85 __ 1956 21.88 __ 2000 12.29 ___ 25 133 __ 1871-1872 -1.50 __ 1877 8.72 __ 1871 21.87 __ 1978 12.28 ___ 24 134 __ 1878-1879 -1.54 __ 1924 8.69 __ 1962 21.86 __ 1992 12.27 ___ 23 135 __ 1944-1945 -1.55 __ 1891 8.56 __ 1997 21.86 __ 1901 12.26 ___ 22 136 __ 2002-2003 -1.55 __ 1901 8.52 __ 2004 21.84 __ 1972 12.22 ___ 21 137 __ 1993-1994 -1.57 __ 1900 8.50 __ 1869 21.83 __ 1967 12.14 ___ 20 138 __ 1922-1923 -1.65 __ 1887 8.49 __ 1889 21.81 __ 1996 12.12 ___ 19 139 __ 1969-1970 -1.73 __ 1869 8.47 __ 1982 21.81 __ 1904 12.11 ___ 18 140 __ 1947-1948 -1.79 __ 1876 8.44 __ 1916 21.80 __ 1893 12.10 ___ 17 141 __ 1887-1888 -1.93 __ 1872 8.41 __ 1888 21.79 __ 1962 11.97 ___ 16 142 __ 1977-1978 -1.94 __ 1873 8.37 __ 1924 21.76 __ 1872 11.96 ___ 15 143 __ 1882-1883 -1.95 __ 1892 8.35 __ 1914 21.75 __ 1925 11.96 ___ 14 144 __ 1884-1885 -2.01 __ 1883 8.22 __ 1996 21.73 __ 1892 11.86 ___ 13 145 __ 1962-1963 -2.03 __ 1926 8.22 __ 1926 21.70 __ 1876 11.76 ___ 12 146 __ 1872-1873 -2.07 __ 1916 8.15 __ 1965 21.62 __ 1880 11.74 ___ 11 147 __ 1892-1893 -2.18 __ 1956 8.14 __ 1886 21.57 __ 1889 11.68 ___ 10 148 __ 1933-1934 -2.21 __ 1950 8.13 __ 1946 21.52 __ 1873 11.52 ___ 09 149 __ 1874-1875 -2.45 __ 1917 8.12 __ 1881 21,51 __ 1883 11.47 ___ 08 150 __ 1904-1905 -2.45 __ 1885 8.03 __ 1992 21.40 __ 1875 11.28 ___ 07 151 __ 1935-1936 -2.64 __ 1940 8.03 __ 1915 21.36 __ 1869 11.26 ___ 06 152 __ 1903-1904 -2.86 __ 1893 7.97 __ 2000 21.18 __ 1888 11.18 ___ 05 153 __ 1880-1881 -2.92 __ 1967 7.69 __ 2009 21.10 __ 1917 11.12 ___ 04 154 __ 1976-1977 -2.95 __ 1875 7.65 __ 1902 21.09 __ 1976 11.07 ___ 03 155 __ 1919-1920 -2.97 __ 1874 7.59 __ 1927 20.57 __ 1871 10.96 ___ 02 156 __ 1917-1918 -3.90 __ 1888 6.94 __ 1903 20.42 __ 1887 10.90 ___ 01 _________________________________________

I would go for 1.0 to 1.5 inch rainfalls on Wednesday into early Thursday, looks to me like Erin will pull in the frontal band rather than reinforcing it in place, so higher potential totals may not be in play. There will be some bracing weather by later Thursday into Friday, mid 70s with a strong northeast breeze, nights 45-50 outside the urban areas and 55-60 inside. A steady 68-70 F during the rainfall, but Wed max achieved before that, 73 F.

=== ::: [] <<<<<<< Annual Scoring for Jan-Aug 2025 >>>>>>> [] ::: === FORECASTER _____DCA_NYC_BOS__east__ORD_ATL_IAH _ cent _ c/e __ DEN_PHX_SEA__ west __ TOTALS Tom __________________ 519 _582 _616 __1717 __540 _518 _560__1618 _3335 __618 _566 _590__1774___5109 ___ Consensus ______ 489 _560 _574__1623__ 516 _572 _550__1638 _3261 __545 _572_650__1767 ___5028 so_whats_happening __525 _590 _542 __1657 __504 _586 _509__1599__3256 __532 _490 _630__1652___4908 hudsonvalley21 ______ 465 _554 _598 __1617 __466 _522 _567 __ 1555 __3172 __552 _534 _638__1724___4896 Scotty Lightning ______532 _564 _520 __1616 __427 _446 _570 __1443 _ 3059 __519 _612 _618 __1749___4808 DonSutherland1 ______ 437 _508 _542 __1487 __512 _540 _490__1542 _3029 __583 _530 _624__1737___4766 RJay _________________ 446 _567 _ 575__1588 __538 _598 _540__1676 _3264 __471 _471 _545__1487___4751 wxallannj _____________ 415 _490 _516 __1421 __490 _500 _532__1522 _ 2943 __546 _564 _599 __1709___4652 StormchaserChuck ___507 _550 _550 __1607 __414 _580 _ 447__1441 _ 3048 __ 517 _524 _527__1568___4616 RodneyS _____________ 494 _506 _562 __1562 __394 _468 _482__1344 _2906 __469 _502 _728__1699___4605 wxdude64 ____________442 _502 _500 __1444 __430_ 508 _494__1432 _2876__ 563 _552 _592__1707___4583 Roger Smith __________422 _492 _496 __1410 __492 _490 _494__1476 _2886 __390 _524 _583__ 1497___4383 ___ Normal ____________432 _504 _504 __1440 __418 _336 _329__1083__2523__550 _466 _596__ 1612___4135 BKViking (6/8) _______ 300 _373 _393 __1066 __378 _446 _356__1180 _ 2246 __398 _396 _419__1213___3459 - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - prorated total __4612 maxim (2/8) __________ 180 _ 152 _164 __ 496 ___ 96_ 120 _ 082 __298__ 794 __92 _ 90 _ 135__ 317 ____ 1111 - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - prorated total __4444 Yoda _(1/8) ____________004 _044 _040 __ 088 __ 76 _ 42 _ 92 __ 210 ___ 298 __ 96 _ 56 _ 92 ___ 244 ___ 542 - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -- prorated total __4336 Persistence ___________288 _404 _520 __1212 ___256 _334 _476 _1066 _2278__390 _418 _538 __1346 ____3624 ____________________________ ________________________________ __ Best scores __ ^ incl tied for best score * incl 3 - 5 tied for best score _______________________ DCA_NYC_BOS_east_ORD_ATL_IAH_cent__c/e _ DEN_PHX_SEA__west__ TOTALS Tom ___________________2 *__ 1^ _ 2 ___ 1 ___ 2 ___ 2^ __1 ___ 1 ___ 1 ___ 0 __ 2 ___ 2^___ 2 ____2 __ Mar,Jun ___ Consensus _______ 1 *__ 0 __ 0 ___ 0 ___ 0 __ 0 __ 1 __ 0 __ 0 ___ 1 ___ 1 ___ 1 ___ 0 ___ 0 so_whats_happening __ 1 *__ 1 __ 0 ___ 0 ___ 0 __ 1 __ 0 ___ 0 ___ 1 ___ 2^__ 1^ __ 1 ___ 2 ____0 hudsonvalley21 ________ 1 *__ 2^__2 ___ 1 ___ 1 __ 1 __ 2^ ___0 __ 0 ___2^^__ 0 __ 0 ___ 0 ____0 Scotty Lightning _______ 3^*__0 __0 ___ 0 ___ 0 __ 0 __ 3 ___ 0 __ 0 ___ 0 __ 3*___1 ___ 1 ____0 Don Sutherland 1 _______1 *__ 1^__ 1*____0 ___ 0 __ 1 ___0 ___ 0 __ 0 ___ 1 __ 1^ __ 0 ___ 0 ____0 RJay ___________________ 0 __ 0 __ 0 ___ 0 ___ 2^__ 1^__ 1^ __ 3 __ 0 ___ 0 __ 1*__ 1^ ___0 ____0 wxallannj _______________0 __ 0 __ 0 ___ 0 ___ 0 __ 0 __ 0 ___ 0 __ 0 ___ 1^ __ 1^__ 0 ___ 0____0 StormchaserChuck _____1 __ 1^__ 1 ____ 2 ___ 1^__ 1 ___ 1 ___ 0 ___1 ___ 0 ___0 __ 1^___ 1 ____ 0 _Apr wxdude64 ______________1 __ 2^__ 1*___ 2 ___ 0 __ 0 __ 0 ___ 0 __ 0 ___ 2 ___ 0 __ 0 ___ 0 ____1 _ Jan RodneyS _______________ 1 __ 1 __ 1 ___ 1 ____ 1 __ 2^ __ 1^ __ 2 ___ 2 ___ 0 __ 1 ___ 4^___1 _____2 _ May,Aug Roger Smith ____________ 1^ __ 2^__1 ___ 1 ___ 2 ___2^__ 2^^__ 0 ___ 1 ___ 0 __ 1^__ 0 ___1 ____2 _ Feb,Jul BKViking _______________ 0 __ 0 __ 0 ___ 0 ___ 0 __ 1 __ 0 ___ 2 __ 1 ____ 1 ___ 1*__ 0 ___0 ____0 ___ Normal ______________ 1 __ 2 ___ 0 ___ 0 ___ 1 __ 0 __ 0 ___ 0 __ 0 ___ 1 __ 1 __ 1 ___ 0 ____ 0 maxim __________________ 1 __ 0 __ 1* ___ 0 ___ 0 __ 0 __ 0 ___ 0 __ 0 ___ 1 ___ 1 __ 0 ___ 1 ____0 ============================== Extreme forecasts So far, 40 of 72 ... 18 for warmest and 22 for coldest ... Jan 1-4, Feb 1-4, Mar 5-0, Apr 6-0, May 2-6, Jun 1-1, Jul 1-1 and Aug 1-6. Forecaster ______________ Jan _Feb _Mar _Apr _May _Jun_Jul _Aug __ Total___adj for ties (*2 tied, ^3 tied) Rodney S ________________ 2-1 _1*-0 _ 0-0 _ 0-0 _3*0 _0-1_0-0 _4-0 __10-2 ___ 9.0 - 2.0 Roger Smith _____________ 0-0 _3-1 _ 0-1 _ 1*0 _ 0-0 _ 1-0 _1*-0_1*-0 _ 7-2 ___ 5.5 - 2.0 ___ Normal _______________ 1-0 _0-1 _ 1-0 _ 0-0 __ 2-0 _0-1 _1-0 __2-0 __6-2 ___ 6.0 - 2.0 Scotty Lightning _________ 1-0 _0-0 _ 2-0 _ 0-0 _ 2-0 _ 0-0_0-0_ 0-1 __ 5-1 ____ 5.0 - 1.0 hudsonvalley21 __________1*-0 _0-0 _ 0-0 _ 2-0 _ 1-1 _ 0-0_ 0-0 _0-0 _ 4-1 ___ 3.5 - 0.0 Stormchaser Chuck ______0-0 _0-0 _0-1 _ 4*-2 _0-0 _ 0-0 _0-0 _0-0 __4-3 ___ 3.5 - 3.0 maxim ____________________1^-0_0-0 _ 2-0 _ 0-0 _ 0-0 _0-0 _0-0 _0-0 __ 3-0 ___ 2.33-0.0 Tom ______________________0-0 _0-0 _ 1-0 _ 0-0 _ 2*0 _ 0-0_0-0 _0-0 __ 3-0 ___ 2.5 - 0.0 wxdude64 ________________1^-0_ 0-0_ 0-0 _ 0-0 _ 0-0 _ 1-0_0-0 __1-0 __ 3-0 ____2.33-0.0 RJay ______________________0-0 _0-0 _0-0 _2**-0_0-0 _ 0-0_1 *-0_0-0 _ 3-0 ___ 1.5-0.0 so_whats_happening ____ 1*-0 _1*-0_ 0-0 _ 0-0 _0-0 __0-0_1-0 __0-0 __3-0 ___ 2.0 - 0.0 Don Sutherland __________ 1^-0_ 0-0 _ 0-0 _ 0-0 _ 1-0 _ 0-0_0-0 _ 0-0 __2-0 ____1.33-0.0 BKViking _________________ 0-0 _ 1-0 _ 0-0 _ 0-0 _ 0-0 _ 0-0 _0-0 _0-0 __1-0 ____1.0 - 0.0 wxallannj _________________0-0 _ 0-0 _ 0-0 _ 0-0 _ 0-0 _ 0-0 _0-0 _1*-0 __1-0 ___ 0.5 - 0.0 =========================================================

Final Scoring for August 2025 Scoring is based on latest posted anomalies in previous post. These scores are updated whenever the anomalies are updated. Scores with a symboi ^ are based on max 60 after all raw scores fell below 60. Due to different sets of large and small gaps in forecast values, fairest method is to add same amount to each score after high score becomes 60. For DCA, highest raw score was 56. For NYC, high raw score was 48, so twelve points were added to all raw scores. High score for BOS, ORD and ATL were above 60 so all scores for these are raw scores. All scores are now final as IAH updated. FORECASTER ___________DCA_NYC_BOS__east__ORD_ATL_IAH_cent_c/e __ DEN_PHX_SEA__west___TOTALS RodneyS _________________60^_ 60^_ 70 __ 190 __ 72 _ 90 _68 __ 230 _ 420 __ 82 _ 54 _ 94 __ 230 ____ 650 Tom ______________________20^_ 56^_ 50 __ 126 __ 86 _ 42 _ 88 __ 216 _ 342 __ 94 _ 50 _100 __ 244 ____ 586 DonSutherland1 __________26^_ 56^_ 46 __ 128 __ 82 _ 56 _ 70 __ 208 _ 336 __ 86 _ 66 _ 84 __ 236 ____ 572 StormchaserChuck1 _____ 28^_ 58^_ 42 __ 128 __ 82 _ 58 _ 70 __ 210 _ 338 __ 78 _ 70 _ 82 __ 230 ____ 568 ____ Normal ______________32^_ 66^_ 58 __ 156 __ 90 _ 60 _ 66 __ 216 _ 372 __ 82 _ 24 _ 72 __ 178 ____ 550 Yoda _____________________04^_ 44^_ 40 __ 088 __ 76 _ 42 _ 92 __210 _ 298 __ 96 _ 56 _ 92 __ 244 ____ 542 so_whats_happening ____ 12^_ 50^_ 38 __ 100 __ 72 _ 48 _ 76 __ 196 _ 296 __ 88 _ 60 _ 96 __ 244 ____ 540 ____ Consensus _________10^_ 44^_ 38 __ 092 __ 72 _ 42 _ 88 __ 202 _ 294 __ 90 _ 62 _ 94 __ 246 ____540 Scotty Lightning _________ 12^_ 46^_ 48 __ 106 __ 70 _ 30 _ 94 __ 194 _ 300 __ 92 _ 54 _ 82 __ 228 ____ 528 wxdude64 _______________08^_ 34^_ 22 __ 064 __ 68 _ 48 _ 74 __ 190 _ 254 __100 _ 66 _ 90 __ 256 ____ 510 RJay _____________________02^_ 32^_ 24 __ 058 __ 54 _ 40 _ 86 __ 180 _ 238 __ 78 _ 64 _ 88 __ 230 ____ 468 hudsonvalley21 __________ 00^_ 24^_ 20 __ 044 __ 64 _ 16 _ 96 __ 176 _ 220 __ 92 _ 48 _ 92 __ 232 ____ 452 wxallannj ________________ 00^_ 28^_ 18 __ 046 __ 46 _ 36 _ 94 __ 176 _ 222 __ 62 _ 80 _ 82 __ 224 ____ 446 Roger Smith _____________ 02^_ 36^_ 22 __ 060 __ 50 _ 10 _ 78 __ 138 _ 198 __ 52 _ 80 _ 64 __ 196 ____ 394 =============== ____ Persistence __________ 04^_ 26^_ 20 __ 050 __ 48 _ 00 _ 90 __ 138 _ 188 __ 82 _ 52 _ 88 __ 222 ____ 410 ______________ EXTREME FORECAST REPORT DCA (-3.6), NYC (-2.3), BOS (-2.1), ATL (-2.0) __ All are wins for RodneyS with lowest forecasts, Normal also wins for NYC. ORD (+0.5) is a win for Tom with lowest forecast (+0.2) and also a win for Normal. DEN (+0.9) is a win for wxdude64 (+0.9) with second lowest forecast, and a loss for Scotty Lightning (+0.5). PHX (+3.8) is a win for tied highest forecasts of wxallannj and Roger Smith (+2.8). IAH and SEA are not extreme forecast qualifiers. IAH would have been a win-loss if it had been 0.1 warmer (fourth highest forecast had high score from +1.7). SEA missed qualifying by a wider margin. ======================================== NOTE: Annual scoring update follows. It will be in the post which currently contains the seasonal max scoring data, and that has moved further down the page to the former intro to September forecast post (which no longer exists). IAH scoring was finalized in an edited version of this post. It resulted in three scores going up 4 points and the rest all went down by 4 points -- the anomaly was +1.8 to 30th, 31st was a -4 day but it only dropped the anomaly to +1.7. These minor changes were also edited into annual scoring. ----------------------------- (actual forecasts) FORECASTER ____________ DCA _NYC _BOS ___ ORD _ATL _IAH ____ DEN _PHX _SEA hudsonvalley21 __________ +1.8 _ +2.1 _ +1.9 ___+1.3 _ +2.2 _ +1.5 ___+1.3 _ +1.2 _ +1.0 wxallannj ________________ +1.8 _ +1.9 _ +2.0 __ +2.2 _ +1.2 _ +2.0 __ +2.8 _+2.8 _ +0.5 RJay ____________________ +1.5 _ +1.7 _ +1.7 ___ +1.8 _ +1.0 _ +1.0 ___ +2.0 _+2.0 _+2.0 Roger Smith _____________ +1.5 _ +1.5 _ +1.8 __ +2.0 _ +2.5 _ +2.8 __ +3.3 _ +2.8 _+3.2 Yoda _____________________+1.4 __+1.1 __+0.9 __ +0.7 _+0.9 _+1.3 ___ +1.1 _ +1.6 _ +1.8 wxdude64 _______________+1.2 _ +1.6 _ +1.8 ___+1.1 __+0.6 _ +0.4 __ +0.9 _ +2.1 _ +1.9 ____ Consensus _________ +1.1 __+1.1 _ +1.0 __ +0.9 _+0.9 _ +1.1 ___ +1.4 _ +1.9 _ +1.7 Scotty Lightning _________ +1.0 _ +1.0 _ +0.5 __ +1.0 _ +1.5 _ +2.0 __ +0.5 _ +1.5 _ +0.5 so_whats_happening ____ +1.0 _ +0.8 _ +1.0 __ +0.9 _ +0.6 _+0.5 __ +1.5 _ +1.8 _ +1.6 Tom ______________________+0.6 _+0.5 _ +0.4 __ +0.2 _ +0.9 _+1.1 ___ +1.2 _ +1.3 _+1.4 DonSutherland1 __________+0.3 _ +0.5 _ +0.6 __ +0.4 _+0.2 _+0.2 __ +1.6 _+2.1 _ +2.2 StormchaserChuck1 _____ +0.2 _ +0.4 _ +0.8 __ +0.4 _+0.1 _ +0.2 __ +2.0 _+2.3 _+2.3 ____ Normal _______________ 0.0 __ 0.0 __ 0.0 ___ 0.0 __ 0.0 __ 0.0 ____ 0.0 __ 0.0 __ 0.0 RodneyS _________________ -1.4 _ +0.3 _ -0.6 __ +0.9 _ -1.5 _ +0.1 ___ +1.8 _ +1.5 _ +1.1 =============== ____ Persistence __________ +1.4 _+2.0 _+1.9 __ +2.1 _ +3.4 _ +1.2 ____ 0.0 _ +1.4 _ +0.8 ______________

Erin is not a fish storm, it's a whale storm.

I just updated our contest stats and noted PHX at +6.3 for August so far. August 7 at 118, 94 was the warmest day (+11). No day so far this month has been cooler than +3. Up here the heat wave ended yesterday and today we have light rain and just 68 F at last look. A few days ago it was close to 100 F here. Not a lot of fires in the region this summer thankfully, the focus is further south and northeast into central Canada, but BC has done fairly well except for a couple of recent outbreaks on Vancouver Island. Heavy rain there now will be putting an end to that problem.

A report on anomalies in August 2025 ... _______________________________ DCA _NYC _BOS __ ORD _ATL _IAH ___ DEN _PHX _SEA ______ (anom 1-14) ____________ -3.6 _ -1.1 _ -1.2 ___ +2.0 _-3.5 _+1.6 __ +1.8 _+6.3 _+0.5 15 _ (p anom 1-31 Aug) ________ -1.5 _ -0.5 _ -0.5 ___+2.0 _ -1.5 _+0.5 __ +2.0 _+4.0 _+1.5 27 _ (p anom 1-31 Aug) ________-2.5 _ -1.5 _ -1.5 ____ 0.0 _ -1.5 _ +1.5 __ +2.0 _ +4.0 _+2.0 ___ final anomalies ____________-3.6 _ -2.3 _ -2.1 ____-0.5 _ -2.0 _ +1.7 __ +0.9 _ +3.8 _+1.4 (15th) _ After quite a cool start to August in the east, recent warmth has begun to erode large negative anomalies. The central and western states have been quite warm, especially the desert southwest. This pattern looks set to continue with oscillating near average conditions in the east, sustained warmth out west although shifting more to the north later. (27th) _ Adjusted projected end of month anomalies. Scoring will also be adjusted. (31st-1st) _ Final anomalies are now all confirmed and scoring is adjusted. SEASONAL MAX to date ________ 99 _ 99 _102 ____ 95 _ 100 _ 101 ___ 100 _ 118 __ 94

Yes, hoping tomorrow evening still has good viewing because moon will rise a bit later (it's 10:00 pm here, already cooled down nicely to 72 F, and a big old moon looking like God's ear above the horizon now in east-south-east). Except for moon we have very dark skies outside of town here, good for viewing auroral displays and meteor showers and night sky etc.

LB would be in heaven here, 100/55 outside, not a cloud to be seen on satellite imagery over the entire region (just snow capped mountains). It has not been a particularly hot summer here so far but we're roasting now.

The BC forest fire situation has been relatively dormant all summer and these fires on Vancouver Island are relatively small and should be easier to fight than the massive blazes in remote areas of northern SK. Fire fighting in near-population parts of Canada is conducted in the same way as in the western U.S. and with the same success rates. There is no political foundation for any strategy of ending the forest fire risk by levelling our forests, in particular the progressives who control politics in Canada would go ballistic if anyone seriously suggested this. We've had bad forest fire seasons in the past too, this is not some new phenomenon. A large portion of northern Ontario was burned out in the summer of 1916. I can recall bad forest fire seasons in 1977 and 1980 in central Canada. Back in the day a thick forest fire haze was quite normal in the west, in an era before fire suppression began, and that is as recently as the 1920s and early 1930s. People only started to organize fire suppression in recent decades.

Table of forecasts for August 2025 FORECASTER ____________ DCA _NYC _BOS ___ ORD _ATL _IAH ____ DEN _PHX _SEA hudsonvalley21 __________ +1.8 _ +2.1 _ +1.9 ___+1.3 _ +2.2 _ +1.5 ___+1.3 _ +1.2 _ +1.0 wxallannj ________________ +1.8 _ +1.9 _ +2.0 __ +2.2 _ +1.2 _ +2.0 __ +2.8 _+2.8 _ +0.5 RJay ____________________ +1.5 _ +1.7 _ +1.7 ___ +1.8 _ +1.0 _ +1.0 ___ +2.0 _+2.0 _+2.0 Roger Smith _____________ +1.5 _ +1.5 _ +1.8 __ +2.0 _ +2.5 _ +2.8 __ +3.3 _ +2.8 _+3.2 Yoda _____________________+1.4 __+1.1 __+0.9 __ +0.7 _+0.9 _+1.3 ___ +1.1 _ +1.6 _ +1.8 wxdude64 _______________+1.2 _ +1.6 _ +1.8 ___+1.1 __+0.6 _ +0.4 __ +0.9 _ +2.1 _ +1.9 ____ Consensus _________ +1.1 __+1.1 _ +1.0 __ +0.9 _+0.9 _ +1.1 ___ +1.4 _ +1.9 _ +1.7 Scotty Lightning _________ +1.0 _ +1.0 _ +0.5 __ +1.0 _ +1.5 _ +2.0 __ +0.5 _ +1.5 _ +0.5 so_whats_happening ____ +1.0 _ +0.8 _ +1.0 __ +0.9 _ +0.6 _+0.5 __ +1.5 _ +1.8 _ +1.6 Tom ______________________+0.6 _+0.5 _ +0.4 __ +0.2 _ +0.9 _+1.1 ___ +1.2 _ +1.3 _+1.4 DonSutherland1 __________+0.3 _ +0.5 _ +0.6 __ +0.4 _+0.2 _+0.2 __ +1.6 _+2.1 _ +2.2 StormchaserChuck1 _____ +0.2 _ +0.4 _ +0.8 __ +0.4 _+0.1 _ +0.2 __ +2.0 _+2.3 _+2.3 ____ Normal _______________ 0.0 __ 0.0 __ 0.0 ___ 0.0 __ 0.0 __ 0.0 ____ 0.0 __ 0.0 __ 0.0 RodneyS _________________ -1.4 _ +0.3 _ -0.6 __ +0.9 _ -1.5 _ +0.1 ___ +1.8 _ +1.5 _ +1.1 =============== ____ Persistence __________ +1.4 _+2.0 _+1.9 __ +2.1 _ +3.4 _ +1.2 ____ 0.0 _ +1.4 _ +0.8 ______________________________________________________ Warmest and coldest forecasts are color coded (Persistence is not included) ... Normal is coldest for six locations, NYC, ORD, IAH, DEN, PHX and SEA.

LB, the heat wave in 1933 ran from July 30 to Aug 2, 98 _ 102 _ 100 _ 98. June 8 and 9 of 1933 also set record highs (95, 97). In 1955 there were also two very hot days in July, 100F on 22nd and 99F on 23rd. Those were records at the time broken later (1957, then 2011). The max on Aug 20, 1983 at NYC was 96F, one below the 1955 date record. 1944 and 1948 were getting quite warm by late July but there were no additional 100F readings to add to those set in August.

Daily records for NYC for August ... Notes: temps in brackets with low min indicate some associated maxima that are not the low max records. Also, for 2d rainfalls, which routinely include the previous day (e.g. Aug 1 is July 31-Aug 1), a * symbol indicates all the rain fell on the date and ** indicates all the rain fell the previous day. Otherwise the two days both had some of the total indicated. Some notes below the body of records indicate secondary noteworthy events not records. Date __ Hi max __ Hi min _______ Low max __ Low min ______ max 24h rain _ max 2d rain total Aug 01 ___100 1933 ___ 82 1917 ________ 68 1923 _____ 59 1895, 1964 ____ 2.85 1878 ___ 3.99 1889 (2.29+1.70) Aug 02 ___100 1955 ___ 83 2006 _______ 67 1875 _____57 1875 ___________ 2.49 1973 ___ 2.52 1973 Aug 03 ___ 97 2005 ___ 78 1975,2006 __ 66 1921 _____ 55 1886, 1927 ____ 2.71 1946 ___ 3.11 1885 (0.67+2.44) Aug 04 ___100 1944 ___ 78 1908,2005 _ 69 1909 _____56 1886 (69 3rd) ___ 3.25 1915 ___ 3.66 1915 Aug 05 ___101 1944 ____ 81 1908 _______ 68 1903 _____56 1886,1912,51 __ 1.44 1884 ___ 3.05 1884 Aug 06 ___ 97 1931,55__ 80 1906,08,18__ 64 1915 _____ 56 1869 (67) ______ 3.31 1878 ___ 3.31 1878* Aug 07 ___104 1918 ____ 82 1918 _______ 64 1975 _____57 1994 (75 6th) ___ 2.18 1921 ___ 3.65 1990 (2.30+1.35) ^ Aug 08 ___ 99 2001 ____ 80 1980 _______69 1903 _____ 54 1903 ___________ 2.60 1927 ___ 2.60 1927*__ 2.50 2007 (1d) Aug 09 ___103 2001 ___ 82 1896,2001 _ 68 1879 _____57 1919, 89 _______ 4.10 1942 ___ 4.83 1976 (0.93+3.90) Aug 10 ___ 98 1891,1949 _ 80 1896 ______ 60 1962 _____ 55 1879 (73) ______ 4.64 1990 ___ 4.70 1990 __ 2.51 2006 (1d) Aug 11 ___102 1944 ____ 81 1891,96 ____ 68 1931,33,62_ 56 1962 ___________2.90 2018 ___ 6.14 1990 __ 2.79 1983 (1d) Aug 12 ___ 97 1944 ____ 80 1988 _______ 64 1979 _____ 55 1889 (73) ______ 3.62 1955 ___ 4.90 1989 (1.90+3.00)^ Aug 13 ___ 99 2005 ____ 82 1908 _______ 68 1873,1934_ 55 1930 (73 12th) _2.70 1955 ___ 6.32 1955 __ 4.01 1926 (2d)^ Aug 14 ___ 99 1988 ____ 84 1908 _______ 66 1873,1919_ 54 1964 (77) ______5.81 2011 ___ 5.81 2011*_ 3.10" 2005 (1d) Aug 15 ___ 97 1988 ____ 81 1988 _______ 66 1992 _____ 54 1964 (80) ______ 1.52 1911 ___ 6.37 2011 Aug 16 ___ 96 1944 ____ 79 1938 _______ 65 1883 _____ 55 1880 (73) ______ 4.80 1909 ___ 4.83 1909 Aug 17 ___ 95 1944,2015_ 78 1978,2015 _ 65 1909 _____ 56 1881^ 1979 ____ 2.86 1974 ___ 5.15 1909 Aug 18 ___ 94 1913,87,2002_78 2002_______ 62 1874 _____ 55 1915 (73) ______3.95 1879 ___ 4.59 1879 Aug 19 ___ 94 1914,66,2002_ 77 1906,2015 _70 1881,1946_ 55 1924 (73 18th) _2.53 1991 __ 3.95 1879** Aug 20 ___ 97 1955 ____ 77 1906,83,2015_ 68 1990,2000_ 55 1949 (76) _____4.80 1873 ___ 4.89 1873 __ 3.63 1904 (1d). Aug 21 ___ 96 1955 ____ 78 1906 _______ 59 2007 _____ 53 1922 (66 22nd) _4.45 2021^___4.84 1873 Aug 22 ___ 95 1916 ____ 78 1906 _______ 65 2007 _____ 52 1895 (71) ______ 2.67 2021^___ 7.12 2021 _ 4.32 1888 (2d) Aug 23 ___ 92 1916 ____ 77 1906 _______ 63 1930 _____ 51 1923 (72) ______ 3.03 1930 ___ 3.74 2021 3.29 1933 (1.06+2.23) 5.51" 3d (2.22 21st) Aug 24 ___ 94 1972 ____ 76 1891 _______ 64 1937,45 __ 52 1890 (65) ______ 3.61 1893 ___ 3.94 1893 __ 2.81 1891 (1.91+0.90) Aug 25 ___ 95 1948 ____ 76 1961,98 ____ 64 1873 _____ 52 1940 (69) ______ 1.86 1982 ___ 3.61 1893** Aug 26 ___103 1948 ___ 78 1948,2021 __ 61 1940 _____ 53 1887 (67) ______ 3.24 1908 ___ 4.13 1941 (1.83+2.30) Aug 27 ___101 1948 ____ 79 1948 _______ 62 1927 _____ 50 1885 (65) ______ 4.16 1971 ___ 4.16 1971*__ 2.88 2011 (1d) Aug 28 ___100 1948 ____ 79 2018 _______ 60 1940 _____ 50 1885 (68) ______ 3.99 2011 ___ 6.87 2011 __ 2.79 1983 (1d) ^^ Aug 29 ___ 99 1953 ____ 81 2018 _______ 63 1903 _____ 50 1965,82,86 _____ 2.68 2002 ___ 3.99 2011**_ 2.85 1983 (2d) Aug 30 ___ 98 1953,73 _ 78 1973,2018 __ 62 1911 _____ 50 1965 (70) ______ 2.18 2008 ___ 2.68 2002**_ 2.37 1872 (2d) Aug 31 ___100 1953____ 78 1953 ________ 59 1911 _____ 50 1976 (72,74) ____ 3.76 1911 ___ 4.61 1911 -- - - - - - - - - - - - - -- ^ 6th-7th 2.77" 1978 (1.78+0.99) .. 1878 no additional rain 7th. ^ 12th _ _ 3.34"R 1926 (1d). 4.01" 12th-13th. ^ 17th max for 1881 was 67, for 1979 68 next day ^ 21st rainfall prev record 4.19" 1888 (broken 2021) ^ 22nd rainfall prev record 1.85" 1994 (broken 2021) also prev 2d rain 4.32" 1888 ^^ 27th-28th 2d rain 1971 5.96 (4.16+1.80) ________________________________________________________________

Welcome to Yoda, and just a general note, the updated scoring is finished, as a group I am fairly confident that was the highest scoring month we've had as a group but nobody quite made it past the record high scores from 2014 (808 for this group and 810 for Mallow who was then a regular participant). I found one error in scoring back in the June annual summary for wxdude64, the station scores were correct but the eastern total was 100 out (too high in table then posted) -- it didn't really affect the contest much as the score involved was still in almost the same rank after correction (Don S moved up one), but this has been edited into a correct format back there (now that error is edited out) and otherwise most of the ranks in the annual contest remained the same as last month, since everyone had quite similar scores in July. Tough crowd when you score 800 and can't move up more than a fraction of a rank! Even Persistence scored well at 752. Tom maintained his lead in the annual contest and expanded it slightly relative to the chase pack as he scored 780. I rode a high score out west to the monthly high of 800. So if you're looking for the updated scoring, it's quite easy to find, just scroll back on the previous page (if you're seeing this on page six maybe some have a different pagination), and before all the August forecasts you'll find the updated scoring. Before the updated scoring is the anomaly report for the month and that contains an updated seasonal max report. Contest scoring for that won't take place until I feel like we've passed ther peak of summer heat which in some recent years was early September. In general despite the high anomalies in central regions, ORD and IAH are not running above the consensus of our forecasts, most other places are near those or above. We''ll see if this trend to high scoring continues on into August. A table of August forecasts will follow on. We would have had several record breaking scores except for ATL being quite a bit warmer than our range of forecasts, 72 was high score there. Some of the anomalies puzzle me at times, for example, NYC was reporting +1.9 on the 30th, had -1 on the 31st and finished +2.0. That must indicate a bit of a jog in running means for 1-30 July and 1-31 July, or it's an error one way or the other. Same thing can be said for SEA which was at +1.0 on 30th, had a +2 for the 31st and finished +0.8. As it turns out, a lot of peoples' scores were differentially impacted by those two oddities so it made no difference to totals but if you had gone below +2.0 for NYC and above +1.0 for SEA you lost eight points on those two. I didn't notice any other strange ones but I have seen it happen in previous months too. Could just be that the 30-year data base had a lot of cool days on 31st in NYC and warm ones in SEA on July 31.

We had quite a heavy storm here at 5 p.m., probably over an inch of rain and frequent lightning, small hail. No wind gusts observed. Cell was moving northwest at around 10-20 knots. Power was out for almost four hours. This was also third day with a high over 95 F before the storm hit. Tuesday had readings near 100 F locally, 97 F yesterday and about 95 F today. It's perhaps the third brief heat wave of the summer which hasn't been too hot overall by recent standards, probably a bit above normal but with some very cool days about a week ago also. Fire season also fairly tame compared to many recent summers, but we did get smoke for several days from a fire near Northport, WA that is more or less contained now.

+1.5 _ +1.5 _ +1.8 _ +2.0 _ +2.5 _ +2.8 _ +3.3 _ +2.5 _ +3.2

Today and Wednesday (30th) are the only two days of the year where four years share the record high for NYC. Today (97) is 1892, 1931, 1949 and 1999. For Wednesday 30th (98) the four years sharing the record are 1917, 1933, 1940 and 1988. In between on 29th, 1949 (99F) has sole possession. There are eight days during the year where the record high is shared by three years. Two of these fall on Aug 18 and 19 during the next notable relatively cool spell for record highs (97 is tops for Aug 15 to 25, the two three-way ties are both 94). In between the two relatively cool intervals, July 31 to Aug 14 average record high is 99.8 F. Then again, from Aug 26 to Sep 3 the average returns to 100F, but most of those records are from two years, 1948 then 1953 (1929 had 99F on Sep 3).

Another near miss of 98 at RIC as per climate report.

IAD tied contest max of 97 so no changes yet.

Interesting about the extended Newark data, can somebody have a look and give an idea of lowest temperatures in Jan 1857 and Feb 1855? Also hottest of 1854 and 1868? I think these could prove to be the extremes to be added to NYC span.

=== ::: [] <<<<<<< Annual Scoring for Jan-July 2025 >>>>>>> [] ::: === FORECASTER _____DCA_NYC_BOS__east__ORD_ATL_IAH _ cent _ c/e __ DEN_PHX_SEA__ west __ TOTALS Tom __________________ 499 _526 _566 __1591 __454 _476 _472__1402 _2993 __524 _516 _490__1530___4523 ___ Consensus ______ 479 _516 _536 __1531__ 444 _530 _462__1436 _2967 __455 _510_556__1521 ___4488 hudsonvalley21 ______ 465 _530 _578 __1573 __402 _506 _471__ 1379 __2952 __460 _486 _546__1492 ___4444 so_whats_happening __513 _540 _504 __1557 __432 _538 _433__1403__2960 __444 _430 _534__1408 ___4368 RJay _________________ 444 _535 _ 551__1530 __484 _558 _454__1496 _ 3026__393 _407 _457__1257___ 4283 Scotty Lightning ______520 _518 _472 __1510 __357 _416 _476 __1249 _ 2759 __ 427 _558 _536 __1521 ___4280 wxallannj _____________ 415 _462 _498 __1375 __444 _464 _438__1346 _2721 __484 _484 _517 __1485 ___4206 DonSutherland1 ______ 411 _ 452 _496 __1359 __430 _484 _420__1334 _2693 __497 _464 _540__1501 ___4194 wxdude64 ____________434 _468 _478 __1380 __362_ 460 _420__1242 _2622__ 463 _486 _502__1451 ___4073 StormchaserChuck ___479 _492 _508 __1479 __332 _522 _ 377__1231 _ 2710 __ 439 _454 _445__1338___4048 Roger Smith __________420 _456 _474 __1350 __442 _480 _416__1338 _2688 __338 _444 _519__ 1301 ___3989 RodneyS _____________ 434 _446 _492 __1372 __322 _378 _414__ 1114 _ 2486 __387 _448 _634__1469 ___3955 ___ Normal ____________400 _438 _446 __1284 __328 _276 _263__ 867__2151__468 _442 _524__ 1434 ___3585 BKViking (6/7) _______ 300 _373 _393 __1066 __378 _446 _356__1180 _ 2246 __398 _396 _419__1213 ___ 3459 - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - prorated total __ 4035 maxim (2/7) __________ 180 _ 152 _164 __ 496 ___ 96_ 120 _ 082 __298__ 794 __92 _ 90 _ 135__ 317 ____ 1111 - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -- prorated total __3889 Persistence ___________284 _378 _500 __1162 ___208 _334 _386 __728 _1890__308 _366 _450 __1124 ____3214 ____________________________ ________________________________ __ Best scores __ ^ incl tied for best score * incl 3 - 5 tied for best score _______________________ DCA_NYC_BOS_east_ORD_ATL_IAH_cent__c/e _ DEN_PHX_SEA__west__ TOTALS Tom ___________________2 *__ 1^ _ 2 ___ 1 ___ 1 ___ 2^ __1 ___ 1 ___ 1 ___ 0 __ 2 ___ 1^___ 1 ____2 __ Mar,Jun ___ Consensus _______ 1 *__ 0 __ 0 ___ 0 ___ 0 __ 0 __ 1 __ 0 __ 0 ___ 1 ___ 1 __ 1 ___0 ___0 hudsonvalley21 ________ 1 *__ 2^__2 ___ 1 ___ 1 __ 1 __ 1^ ___0 __ 0 ___2^^__ 0 __ 0 ___ 0 ____0 so_whats_happening __ 1 *__ 1 __ 0 ___ 0 ___ 0 __ 1 __ 0 ___ 0 ___ 1 ___ 2^__ 1^ __ 1 ___ 2 ____0 RJay ___________________ 0 __ 0 __ 0 ___ 0 ___ 2^__ 1^__ 1^ __ 3 __ 0 ___ 0 __ 1*__ 1^ ___0 ____0 Scotty Lightning _______ 3^*__0 __0 ___ 0 ___ 0 __ 0 __ 3 ___ 0 __ 0 ___ 0 __ 3*___1 ___ 1 ____0 wxallannj _______________0 __ 0 __ 0 ___ 0 ___ 0 __ 0 __ 0 ___ 0 __ 0 ___ 1^ __ 0 __ 0 ___ 0____0 Don Sutherland 1 _______1 *__ 1^__ 1*____0 ___ 0 __ 1 ___0 ___ 0 __ 0 ___ 1 __ 1^ __ 0 ___ 0 ____0 wxdude64 ______________1 __ 2^__ 1*___ 2 ___ 0 __ 0 __ 0 ___ 0 __ 0 ___ 1 ___ 0 __ 0 ___ 0 ____1 _ Jan StormchaserChuck _____1 __ 1^__ 1 ____ 2 ___ 1^__ 1 ___ 1 ___ 0 ___1 ___ 0 ___0 __ 1^___ 1 ____ 0 _Apr Roger Smith ____________ 1^ __ 2^__1 ___ 1 ___ 2 ___2^__ 2^^__ 0 ___ 1 ___ 0 __ 0 __ 0 ___1 ____2 _ Feb,Jul RodneyS _______________ 0 __ 0 __ 0 ___ 0 ___ 1 __ 1^ __ 1^ __ 1 ___ 1 ___ 0 __ 1 ___ 4^___1 _____1 _ May BKViking _______________ 0 __ 0 __ 0 ___ 0 ___ 0 __ 1 __ 0 ___ 2 __ 1 ____ 1 ___ 1*__ 0 ___0 ____0 ___ Normal ______________ 1 __ 1 ___ 0 ___ 0 ___ 0 __ 0 __ 0 ___ 0 __ 0 ___ 1 __ 1 __ 1 ___ 0 ____ 0 maxim __________________ 1 __ 0 __ 1* ___ 0 ___ 0 __ 0 __ 0 ___ 0 __ 0 ___ 1 ___ 1 __ 0 ___ 1 ____0 ============================== Extreme forecasts So far, 33 of 63 ... 17 for warmest and 16 for coldest ... Jan 1-4, Feb 1-4, Mar 5-0, Apr 6-0, May 2-6, Jun 1-1, Jul 1-1 Forecaster ______________ Jan _ Feb _ Mar _Apr _May _Jun_Jul __ Total___adj for ties (*2 tied, ^3 tied) Rodney S ________________ 2-1 _ 1*-0 _ 0-0 _ 0-0 _3*0 _0-1_0-0 __ 6-2 ___ 5.0 - 2.0 Scotty Lightning _________ 1-0 _ 0-0 _ 2-0 _ 0-0 _ 2-0 _ 0-0_0-0 __5-0 ___ 5.0 - 0.0 Roger Smith _____________ 0-0 _ 3-1 _ 0-1 _ 1*0 _ 0-0 _ 1-0 _1 *-0__6-2 ___ 5.0 - 2.0 hudsonvalley21 __________ 1*-0_ 0-0 _ 0-0 _ 2-0 _ 1-1 _ 0-0_0-0 __4-1 ___ 3.5 - 0.0 Stormchaser Chuck ______0-0 _0-0 _0-1 _ 4*-2 _0-0 _ 0-0 _0-0 __4-3 ___ 3.5 - 3.0 ___ Normal _______________ 1-0 _ 0-1 _ 1-0 _ 0-0 __ 2-0 _0-1 _1-0 __ 4-2 ____4.0 - 2.0 maxim ____________________1^-0_ 0-0 _ 2-0 _ 0-0 _ 0-0 _0-0 _0-0 _ 3-0 ___ 2.33-0.0 Tom ______________________0-0 _ 0-0 _ 1-0 _ 0-0 _ 2*0 _ 0-0_0-0 __3-0 ___ 2.5 - 0.0 RJay ______________________0-0 _0-0 _0-0 _2**-0_0-0 _ 0-0_1 *-0__3-0 ___ 1.5-0.0 so_whats_happening ____ 1*-0 _1*-0_ 0-0 _ 0-0 _0-0 __0-0_1-0 __ 3-0 ___ 2.0 - 0.0 Don Sutherland __________ 1^-0_ 0-0 _ 0-0 _ 0-0 _ 1-0 _ 0-0_0-0 __2-0 ____1.33-0.0 wxdude64 ________________1^-0_ 0-0 _ 0-0 _ 0-0 _ 0-0 _ 1-0_0-0 __2-0 ____ 1.33-0.0 BKViking _________________ 0-0 _ 1-0 _ 0-0 _ 0-0 _ 0-0 _ 0-0 _0-0 _ 1-0 ____1.0 - 0.0 wxallannj _________________0-0 _ 0-0 _ 0-0 _ 0-0 _ 0-0 _ 0-0 _0-0 _ 0-0 ____1.0 - 0.0 =========================================================

If I manage to keep revising this log to 2030, I would probably then add "warmest since record" data for the records set 1981 to 1990, or perhaps it should always be a 30-year interval meaning I should add data for records set 1981 to 1985 now. (a revised table has been created since this was posted, with updates to records and warmest since data, 1981 to 1992 are now added) (the following applies to the original set, with warmest since 1981) ... In any case, 211 of the 366 records come with a set of "warmest since record set" data (the other 155 are too recent). A study of these follows. First item studied is the number of steps down to include the 1981-2025 recent interval. This ranges from 1 to 4. If it's 1, the warmest since the record is at least a tie of an earlier value or is the highest since the record. If the value is 4, it means there were three higher values after the record, before 1981 in descending order (the number of ties of these is not part of the count). The three cases of four steps down occur in the autumn months. The frequency count for the number of steps down to recent warmest values is as follows (zero means the record was set or tied in the 1981-2025 period) ... << FREQUENCY COUNT by MONTHS (and total) for steps down after record highs to include warmest 1981-2025 >>> n__ Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec __ TOTAL 0 _ 15 _ 19 _ 18 _ 14 _ 12 __9 _ 13 __ 9 __ 9 __ 5 _ 10 _ 22 ___ 155 1 __ 10 __ 5 _ 12 _ 11 _ 16 __11 _ 14 __ 15 __9 __13 _ 13 __ 7 ___ 136 2 __ 5 __ 5 __ 0 __ 5 __ 2_ 8 __ 4 __ 7 __ 8 __ 8 __ 6 __ 2 ____ 60 3 __ 1 __ 0 __ 1 __ 0 __ 1 __ 2 __ 0 __ 0 __ 3 __ 4 __ 0 __ 0 ____ 12 4 __ 0 __ 0 __ 0 __ 0 __ 0 _ 0 __0 __ 0 __ 1 ___ 1 __ 1 __ 0 _____ 3 The other type of study would be to find the distribution of years that see the warmest since a record value. For the 211 that qualify, the first year of any tied set, or lone value, that is warmest after a record, occurred in these years (many have later ties and these are now added to lists) : 1887 _ Jan 23 (tied 1906) 1890 _ Jan 2 (tied 1979) 1898 _ Sep 18 1907 _ May 14 1909 _ Nov 12 1914 _ May 26 (tied 1965), 27, Sep 21 1918 _ Jun 1, Aug 23 1919 _ Jun 2, Sep 7 (tied 2023) 1921 _ Apr 4 1924 _ Aug 7 1925 _ Jun 3 1931 _ Jun 20 (tied 1953), Nov 21 1937 _ Jan 15 1939 _ Oct 9 (tied 1942, 1949, 1959, 1961, 1990, 2011) 1940 _ Nov 22 1942 _ Sep 15 1943 _ Jun 4, Sep 28 1944 _ Jun 18 (tied 1957, 1962) 1946 _ Jan 7 (tied 2008), Oct 7 (tied 1961), Nov 27 (tied 1960, 1988, 1990, 2006, 2015) 1947 _ Jan 28 (tied 2002), Oct 21 1948 _ Sep 29 1949 _ Aug 11, Oct 10 1950 _ Oct 1 1951 _ Feb 26 (tied 1976), Dec 8 (tied 1980) 1952 _ Jan 26 1953 _ Jun 6 (tied 1968), Aug 28 (tied 1973), Nov 18, 19 1954 _ Feb 15, Jul 31, Oct 11 1955 _ Apr 10, Jul 17 (tied 1999), Aug 1 (tied 1999), 5 1956 _ Nov 16 (tied 1990, 2001) 1957 _ Apr 21, May 13 (tied 2004) 1958 _ Oct 16 (tied 1963) 1959 _ Jun 29 (tied 1991), Sep 9, Oct 4 (tied 2013), 6 1960 _ Apr 15, Oct 15 (tied 1975) 1961 _ Sep 4 1962 _ Apr 27 (tied 1990), Oct 12 1963 _ Jun 26, Oct 17 1964 _ Mar 5, Jul 1, Nov 13 1965 _ May 16 (tied 1991) 1966 _ Jun 5, Jul 4, 26 1967 _ Jun 16, Oct 5, Dec 19 1968 _ Oct 3 1969 _ Aug 25 (tied 1993) 1970 _ Aug 16 (tied 1997, 2002, 2015), Sep 16 (tied 1991), 22, 23 (tied 1980) 1972 _ Jan 13 (tied 2017), 19 1973 _ Jan 1 (tied 1979, 2005), Aug 29, Sep 3, Dec 27 (tied 2015) 1974 _ Jan 27, Nov 1 1975 _ Aug 2, Oct 14 1976 _ Feb 13, 25, 29, Apr 20, Aug 22 1977 _ May 17 (tied 2017), 28 (tied 2016), Jul 18 (tied 2012) 1978 _ Apr 1 1979 _ Oct 20 (tied 1984), 23 (tied 2007), Nov 26 (tied 1988) 1980 _ Jul 21 (tied 1991), Aug 27, Sep 2 1981 _ Jul 12 (tied 1983,1993,2010 1982 _ Nov 2 1983 _ Jun 27, Aug 20, Sep 6 1984 _ Jun 8 (tied 2011), 9 (tied 2008), 11, 13 (tied 2017), Oct 22 1985 _ Feb 23, Mar 29, Apr 30 1986 _ Jan 22, Apr 2 1987 _ May 10, 29, 31, Nov 4, 17 1988 _ Jun 14 1989 _ Jan 24, Apr 5, Aug 6, Oct 26 (tied 2023), 27, 29 1990 _ Feb 14 (tied 2011), Mar 17 1991 _ Mar 2, May 12, May 25, Jul 20, Aug 30, Dec 9 1992 _ May 22, 23, Nov 23, Dec 31 1993 _ Jul 9, Aug 4 (tied 1995), Aug 26 1994 _ Jul 13 1995 _ May 24, Jul 14, Aug 21, 24, Oct 13 1997 _ Feb 28 (tied 2024) 1998 _ Mar 28, Sep 27, Dec 2 1999 _ Jun 7 (tied 2008), Jul 16, 19 2000 _ May 5, 9 2001 _ Aug 10, Oct 25 2002 _ Apr 18, 19, Jul 2 (tied 2018), 3, 29 (tied 2015) replaced by 2025, Aug 12 (tied 2005) 2005 _ Jan 14, Jul 27, Sep 12, 13 2007 _ Sep 26 2008 _ Mar 4, Dec 10 2009 _ Apr 25 2010 _ Aug 31, Sep 1, 25 2011 _ Apr 11 2012 _ Mar 19, 21 2013 _ Jan 31 2014 _ Nov 24, 25 2015 _ Dec 12 2016 _ Jan 10, Mar 25, Sep 14, Oct 18, Oct 30 (tied 2024) 2017 _ Mar 1, May 19 2018 _ Feb 20, May 15, Jun 17 2020 _ Mar 20, Nov 8, 11 2021 _ Mar 11, Jun 30, Dec 16 2022 _ Nov 5, 7 2023 _ Feb 16, Apr 12, Oct 28 2024 _ Jan 25, Mar 14, Apr 29 2025 _ Jun 25, Jul 29 Three of the years that set no records (1958, 1992, 2014) have at least one warmest since a record, 2004 did not manage to set one but it did tie an earlier effort from 1957 in May to finally find its way in here as well. A revised set of "warmest since" data have been posted to extend the period from 1981 to 1992. The cases that are now warmest since records 1981-91 (none were set in 1992) are as follows: 1985 _ Sep 19, 20 and since then, 2005&22 (19), 1988,97,2000,05,16 (20) 1989 _ Feb 2 (and since then, 1999 and 2014), Sep 10 (since then 2002 and 2016) 1991 _ May 30 (tied 2013), Nov 20 (since then 1999), Nov 29 (tied 2011) 1993 _ July 11, Aug 15 1995 _ Jan 17 1999 _ Apr 8 (tied 2010) 2000 _ May 6 2001 _ Feb 9 2002 _ July 30 2003 _ Mar 16 2005 _ Aug 14 2006 _ Jan 18, Feb 3, Nov 30 2010 _ Jun 28 2012 _ Feb 1, Mar 8, 13, June 21 (tied 2024) 2013 _ Apr 9, Sep 11, Dec 23 (tied 2015) 2015 _ Sep 17, 30, Dec 26 2017 _ Feb 24 2019 _ Feb 4 (tied 2020), Feb 5, Mar 15 2022 _ Dec 30 2023 _ Dec 18 2024 _ June 22, Dec 29

With regard to the total numbers of record high max values (including fractions for ties) shown in the last entry above (cumulative __ etc) ... note the first entry refers to 12 years (1869-1880) and prorated it would compare to the rest at 8.0 ... and the last entry is the current half-decade which should be doubled (by end of 2025) so it compares at a value of about 24. That being said, the frequency clearly picks up rapidly by 1911-20 and peaks in 1941-50 (41.08 records), with a secondary peak 1991-2000 (34.92 records). The number expected at random per decade is around 20-25. With most of the "starter era" records replaced through the period, almost all decades do better than expected after the first four decades do quite poorly at retaining the numerous records they managed to set (1901-10 replaced almost a third of the starter records but could only hold on to 2.5 in total, mostly in 1901). Four years failed to set any records, these were 1958, 1992, 2004, and 2014. If these years had been in the starter era they would have set an average number of records there, so when the climate does return to the "starter" climate it is now difficult to set record highs against the current set. The starter era held on to a total of 33.92 records (after losing 1.5 this past June). Besides the four years that failed to set records, various years have been erased from the current records, the most recent departures being 1978 and 1968. Before those two, 1926 is the third most recent year to lose all of its records. The frequency picks up rapidly before that and most years in the starter era have lost all their records. 1913 replaced 25.33 records at the time and has lost all but a third share in August (a three-way tie) so it ranks as the lowest survival rate (1.4%). Complete survival of records is largely confined to recent years, those which have yet to lose any part of their record count include 1981, 1994, 1995, 2003, 2005, 2007, 2009, 2010, 2012, 2013, 2016, 2018, 2019, 2020, 2021, 2023 and 2024. ... 2022 has already lost a record (to 2024) as has 2017, while 2015 lost a shared record (to 2022). A notable success for keeping records over a long span belongs to 1925 which is the furthest back case with a survival rate higher than 50% of its records set. 1880 and 1881 as well as 1895 still have about a third of their records set. 1888 on the other hand now has only 5% of its original count (it was 20% before two hot days in June erased 1.5 of its original count of 10). A "count" is the adjusted number of records, reducing for ties. The year that set the most records in its own era was 1913 (25.33) but the expected number then was 8.1; now it is 2.3 per year. The year with the largest ratio of records set to expected number is 2001 (set 4.67 times as many records as expected at random, 12.83 vs 2.74. It now has a count of 9.17 which is still the highest by a slight margin, 1953 has 8.0 and 1990 is next with 7.83 records. 1931, 1949, 1966, 1988 and 1991 also retain seven or more.

DATE ___ 1869-1900 record(s) ___ Subsequent records __ Eventual record in bold type __ Warmest since record (if set before 1992) in brackets OCT 01 __ 87 1881 _____ ______________ 88 1927 _______ (86 1950) _ ((84 1954, 1968, 1986)) _(((82 2013))) OCT 02 __ 79 1878 _____ _______ 88 1922 _90 1927 __________________________________ 93 2019 OCT 03 __ 85 1879 _____ ______ 87 1919 ____________________ (84 1968) ___ ((82 1983)) _(((81 1995,1999,2000))) OCT 04 __ 84 1891 _____ ________________________88 1941___ (86 1959 ____________ 86 2013) OCT 05 __ 86 1891 _____ __________89 1922______94 1941______(86 1967) ____ ((83 2007,2017)) OCT 06 __ 80 1884 _____ ___84 1910 ___86 1931 _ 90 1941___(88 1959) ____ ((86 1995)) OCT 07 __ 77 1887 _____ __ 81 1912,27,39 ___83 1943 88 1944 _(84 1946,61) ((83 1963)) _(((82 1990,2007))) OCT 08 __ 80 1884,1900_ ____84 1916 __86 1931 _____________________________ 87 2007 OCT 09 __ 82 1879 _____ ____ 86 1916 ____ (84 1939, 1942, 1949, 1959, 1961, 1990, 2011) OCT 10 __ 76 1887 _____ _76 1909 _78 1912_80 1919 _91 1939_(88 1949)_((83 1958,61)) _(((82 1997))) OCT 11 ___75 1883 _____ _79 1904 _83 1914 _____ 85 1949 _(84 1954)((83 1955))(((81 1960)))(((77 1995, 2017,18))) OCT 12 __ 78 1880,1886_ _____________ 86 1928 _____ 86 1954 __(85 1962) ___ ((81 1995)) OCT 13 __ 77 1884 _____ __________ 78 1928,30 _80 1940 _87 1954 _______________( 86 1995 ) OCT 14 __ 80 1883 _____ ________ 84 1920 ___________________(83 1975) __ ((80 1990))_(((77 2000))) OCT 15 __ 82 1897 _____ ________________________________ 84 1956 __(82 1960,75) _((80 1985))_(((79 2021))) OCT 16 __ 87 1897 _____ __________________________________(83 1958,1963)_ ((80 1968))_((( 77 1992 )))_((((75 2008)))) OCT 17 __ 77 1878 _____ __78 1908 __83 1928_ 90 1938 _____ (83 1963) __ ((81 1968, __ 81 2016)) OCT 18 __ 79 1899 _____ __79 1908 __82 1928 __________________________________________ (81 2016) OCT 19 __ 72 1899 _____ 72 1902 _75 1905,10 _79 1928 __ 80 1945 __ 83 1963 ________________ 85 2016 OCT 20 __ 71 1884 _____ _71 1905,06 _77 1916, 1936 78 1938 _80 1947__80 1969 _ (76 1979,1984)_((75 2021)) OCT 21 __ 74 1884 _____ __ 77 1914 78 1915 84 1920 ___(83 1947) ((80 1949,63,79)) ____________((78 2017)) OCT 22 __ 76 1884 _____ ______________ 83 1920 _________________________ 88 1979 _(77 1984)_((76 2007,17)) OCT 23 __ 76 1871,1900_ _________________________________ 85 1947 _______ (78 1979, __ 78 2007) OCT 24 __ 77 1900 _____ _________________________________ 77 1946 ___ 77 1963 _______ 79 2001 OCT 25 __ 74 1875 _____ ______________________________________________ 79 1963 _______ (75 2001) OCT 26 __ 71 1874, 1899_ __72 1908 ____73 1924 ________ 76 1947 ___ 78 1963,1964 __(77 1989,2023) OCT 27 __ 75 1899 _____ _________________________________ 78 1947 ___ 82 1963 ___ (76 1989)_((75 2010)) OCT 28 __ 70 1899 _____ ___ 72 1913 _ 83 1919 _______________________________________________ (80 2023) OCT 29 __ 70 1874 _____ ___________ 71 1918 ____ 71 1935, 1945 _77 1946 ____ 78 1971 __(76 1989) _((73 2015)) OCT 30 __ 70 1881 _____ __ 72 1912 _75 1918 _____________82 1946 __ 82 1961 ________ (76 2016, 2024) OCT 31 __ 72 1896 _____ ___________ 74 1919 __ 76 1933,45 _ 81 1946 _________________________ 81 2024 decade ends _ 1880 _1890 _1900 _1910 _1920 _1930 _ 1940 _ 1950 __ 1960 __ 1970 __ 1980 __ 1990 __ 2000 __ 2010 _ 2020 (2025) * Oct ____________ 0.0, 0.0 , 1.0, 0.0 , 5.0, 2.5 , 2.0, 7.5 , 2.5, 4.0, 2.0, 0.0, 0.0, 2.0, 2.0, 0.5 * __ 31.0 cumulative ____ 9.0, 6.5 ,13.58, 2.5 ,18.42 ,18.5 ,20.08, 35.08 ,27.33, 22.67, 23.0, 25.25, 27.58, 26.33, 19.33, 9.83 * __ 305.0 NOV 01 __ 69 1882,1888 _______71 1915 72 1919_ 73 1927,29 ___ 84 1950 ______(81 1974) ________((80 2024)) NOV 02 __ 73 1876 _____ ________________________ 76 1929 ____ 83 1950 _________ (79 1982) __((75 2001)) NOV 03 __ 67 1876,86,92 __68 1903 _____________ 75 1936 __________________________ 78 1990 _ 79 2003 NOV 04 __ 64 1887 _____ __ 70 1903 __ 76 1914 ____________________ 77 1961 __ 78 1975 __(77 1987) ((76 1994)) NOV 05 __ 67 1900 _____ ____________________ 67 1934 73 1935 74 1938 78 1961 _______________________ (76 2022) NOV 06 __ 68 1888 _____ ____________________ 68 1935 _70 1938 _74 1948 _____________ 74 2015 75 2022 80 2024 NOV 07 __ 69 1885 _____ _____________________ 78 1938 ___________________________________________(78 2022) NOV 08 __ 69 1890 _____ _____________________ 71 1938 _72 1945 _____________ 76 1975 __________ (75 2020) NOV 09 __ 72 1895 _____ ______________________________ 72 1945,1950 _________ 75 1975 __________ 75 2020 NOV 10 __ 68 1895 _____ _________________ 72 1931 ________________________________ 73 1985 _______ 74 2020 NOV 11 ___ 68 1880 _____ ________________________________ 74 1949 ________________________________(72 2020) NOV 12 __ 76 1879 _____ __ (73 1909) _________((70 1938))_______(((69 1964)))___((((68 1982 __ 68 2020)))) NOV 13 __ 69 1879 _____ __________________ 73 1931 _______________ (71 1964) _______________ ((65 2005)) NOV 14 __ 61 1879 _____ _63 1902 ____________64 1937 66 1941 67 1951 68 1955__71 1973,80 ___72 1993 NOV 15 __ 73 1879 _____ ____________________________________________________77 1973____ 80 1993 NOV 16 __ 68 1897 _____ __________ 71 1927 72 1928 _________ (71 1956 ______________ 71 1990, 2001) NOV 17 __ 70 1896 _____ ____________________________________ 71 1953 _________________________(67 2023) NOV 18 __ 64 1886,1890 _ _65 1906_66 1918 _73 1921,1928 ___(72 1953) _____________ ((70 1987))_(((69 2021))) NOV 19 __ 67 1900 _____ _________________72 1921 __________ (71 1953) _____________ ((67 1991))_(((65 2015))) NOV 20 __ 69 1900 _____ ____ 72 1913 ________ 74 1934,42,48 ___________________ 77 1985 (74 1991) ((69 1999)) NOV 21 ___74 1900 _____ _____________________(72 1931) __________________________ ((69 1991)) (((64 2003,20))) NOV 22 __ 68 1883 _____ _____________________ 72 1931 _ (70 1940) ___________ ((67 1983)) __ (((66 2007))) NOV 23 __ 64 1883 _____ __64 1909 _70 1913,27 _72 1931 ____________________________(71 1992) _ ((62 1999)) NOV 24 __ 64 1886 _____ ______________________68 1931 _______________________ 73 1979 ____ (69 2014) NOV 25 __ 59 1890, 1895, 1905__ 60 1908 _____ 62 1931 _63 1946 _ 64 1966 _65 1973 _73 1979 ___ (68 2014) NOV 26 __ 66 1895 _____ _______________________________ 67 1946 ______________ (66 1979, 1988) _((65 2011,20)) NOV 27 __ 72 1896 _____ _______________________________(64 1946, 1960, 1988, 1990, 2006, 2015) NOV 28 __ 69 1896 _____ _____________________________________________________ 69 1990 _ 70 2011 NOV 29 __ 65 1870 _____ ______________________________________ 67 1968 ______ 69 1990 (66 1991, 2011) NOV 30 __ 57 1869 _____ __62 1908 _64 1919 _ 67 1927 69 1933 ____________________ 70 1991 __ (69 2006) decade ends _ 1880 _1890 _1900 _1910 _1920 _1930 _ 1940 _ 1950 __ 1960 __ 1970 __ 1980 __ 1990 __ 2000 __ 2010 _ 2020 (2025) * Nov ___________ 1.0, 0.0 , 2.0, 0.0 , 0.0, 3.0 , 4.0, 4.0 , 1.0, 1.0, 4.5, 2.0, 3.0, 1.0, 2.5, 1.0 * __ 30.0 cumulative ____10.0, 6.5 ,15.58, 2.5 ,18.42 ,21.5 ,24.08, 39.08 ,28.33, 23.67, 27.5, 27.25, 30.58, 27.33, 21.83,10.83 * __ 335.0 DEC 01 __ 62 1869 _____ ___ 64 1908 _____ 68 1927 ___________ 68 1962 _______ 69 2001 _ 70 2006 DEC 02 __ 60 1878 _____ ___ 61 1912 ____________________________ 66 1970 _____(64 1998) DEC 03 __ 55 1879,1891,1899__59 1905 _64 1914 __________________ 64 1970 ______ 69 1998 DEC 04 __ 66 1873 _____ _________________________________________ 66 1973 _67 1978 72 1982 74 1998 DEC 05 __ 57 1877 _____ _____ 63 1916 _____________________________ 63 1982, __1998, 1999 ___ 70 2001 DEC 06 __ 59 1879 _____ ____ 64 1912 ____________________ 64 1960 ______ 68 1982 _______ 71 2001 DEC 07 __ 58 1879,1884_ ___ 58 1911 _________ 63 1932 _ 64 1951 _67 1956 ________________ 75 1998 DEC 08 __ 58 1892 _____ ____ 58 1911 _ 61 1924 _65 1927 __(64 1951 ____ 64 1980) _ ((59 1991, 2004)) DEC 09 __ 60 1889 _____ ____________ 60 1924 _______ 61 1946,53 _ 66 1966 _________ (64 1991)_((59 2023)) DEC 10 __ 60 1878, 1885 __ __ 61 1911 ______ 61 1939 _ 70 1946 _____________________________ (65 2008) DEC 11 ___ 64 1879 _____ ______________________________________________________________________ 66 2021 DEC 12 __ 61 1873 _____ _____ 63 1911 _______ 68 1931 _______________________________________ (66 2015) DEC 13 __ 59 1881 _____ ______ 61 1919 __ 64 1923 ___________________________________________ 68 2015 DEC 14 __ 67 1881 _____ _____________________________________________________________________ 67 2015 DEC 15 __ 57 1897 _____ 60 1901 ___ 61 1918 ___________________________________ 63 2001 67 2008 68 2015 DEC 16 __ 60 1891 _____ _____________________________________________ 63 1971 __________________(62 2021) DEC 17 __ 55 1888,1894_ ____________57 1924_60 1928_______________________61 1984___62 2000 DEC 18 __ 52 1888 _____ ________ 57 1915 ____ 59 1928 __63 1937 ____________ 63 1984 ______ (62 2023) DEC 19 __ 58 1899 _____ __________________________ 58 1931 ______ (56 1967) __________________((55 2017)) DEC 20 __ 60 1895 _____ _____________________________________________________________ 60 1999, 2002 DEC 21 __ 54 1895 _____ 54 1902 _____ 62 1923 ________________________________________62 2001 _ 65 2013 DEC 22 __ 59 1875 _____ _______________________________ 63 1949 _____________________ 63 1998 __ 71 2013 DEC 23 __ 66 1891 _____ ___________________________________________________________ 66 1990 __ (64 2013,2015) DEC 24 __ 60 1891 _____ ___________________________ 61 1941 _______________________63 1990,1996 __72 2015 DEC 25 __ 64 1889 _____ _______________________________________________________ 64 1982 __________ 66 2015 DEC 26 __ 62 1889 _____ ________________________ 63 1936 ______________________ 63 1982 ________ (59 2015) DEC 27 __ 56 1895 _____ _________________________60 1936 _ 63 1949 _______(61 1973 _______________61 2015) DEC 28 __ 50 1874, 1887 __51 1904,05 _54 1907 _59 1936, 1949 _ 61 1954 ______ 65 1982 _______ 65 2008 DEC 29 __ 53 1889, 1891 _55 1901 _57 1905 _____________________57 1954 ________ 65 1982 70 1984 ___ (60 2024) DEC 30 __ 60 1895 _____ ________________________________________________________________ 65 1984 ___ (62 2022) DEC 31 __ 60 1895 _____ _______________________ 62 1932 ___________ 63 1965 ____________ (61 1992)_((56 2004)) decade ends _ 1880 _1890 _1900 _1910 _1920 _1930 _ 1940 _ 1950 __ 1960 __ 1970 __ 1980 __ 1990 __ 2000 __ 2010 _ 2020 _ (2025) * Dec ___________ 0.0, 0.5 , 1.33, 0.0 , 0.0, 1.0 , 2.5, 2.0 , 0.0, 3.0, 1.0, 4.0, 4.33, 3.83, 6.5, 1.0 * __ 31.0 cumulative ____10.0, 7.0 ,16.92, 2.5 ,18.42 ,22.5 ,26.58, 41.08 ,28.33, 26.67, 28.5, 31.25, 34.92, 31.17, 28.33, 11.83 * __ 366.0 (your comments or questions welcome) (similar logs for record low values will appear later, possibly after a month or two, as interest in those would probably peak in fall and winter anyway)